Oh, what a difference two swings made for these Los Angeles Dodgers.
Before Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts connected on back-to-back home runs to walk off the Colorado Rockies and salvage a series win on Sunday, the Dodgers were staring at a two-game lead in the NL West (their smallest since Aug. 17) with three of their final six games against the second-place San Diego Padres.
The tightening standings were enough to inspire thoughts of looming disaster.
But after Ohtani and Betts connected on two of the most consequential swings of the season, the Dodgers had a three-game lead ahead of the Padres’ three-game trip to Dodger Stadium. They are poised to clinch the division outright with a series victory, and FanGraphs’ odds of Los Angeles taking the NL West are at 90.8 percent. The Dodgers have a half-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for the top seed in the National League.
Mookie Betts’ walk-off home against the Rockies set the stage for a dramatic final week of the regular season. (John McCoy / Getty Images)
The Dodgers’ magic number is four. A champagne celebration looms. They are still largely in control of their own destiny ahead of October, though much can change over the season’s final week. That goes for the No. 1 seed. The Phillies hold the tiebreaker over the Dodgers after taking the season series, meaning the Dodgers would have to take the top record outright to secure home-field advantage through the NL side of the bracket.
The Dodgers still hold a commanding four-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers, who end the season with their final two series being at the Pittsburgh Pirates and home against the playoff-chasing New York Mets. So long as the Dodgers win the division, a first-round bye remains somewhat secure (and as necessary as ever, given the amount of pitching question marks they have).
In the division, the Padres also hold the tiebreaker and still technically control their destiny when it comes to interrupting the Dodgers’ run of 10 division titles over the past 11 seasons. San Diego claims the NL West if it wins its six games against the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks on the road.
Who the Dodgers would face in the playoffs remains in flux. The playoff field is close to set with the Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers officially in the dance (and the Padres on the verge of joining them). The Diamondbacks, Mets and Braves are duking it out for the final two spots with some variability in seeding still possible.
The scenarios for the Dodgers range from starting on the road in a best-of-three wild-card series to taking on either the No. 3-6 or No. 4-5 winners as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in October.
So yes, this week will be worth watching, including maybe the most closely-watched Dodgers series at Coors Field in years to end the season.
The pitching appears largely set
Despite the patchwork rotation over the past month, the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plans appear straightforward.
Jack Flaherty has been a stabilizing force. Yoshinobu Yamamoto struggled with his command on Sunday and has yet to complete more than four innings since returning from the injured list. Still, he will inevitably factor highly into the Dodgers’ plans. Walker Buehler has continued to have uneven results, sometimes within the same outing, but the organization has made clear it’s banking on his October pedigree. It’s hard to argue against Landon Knack at this point; for as much as the Dodgers have held a tight leash on him this season (he’s faced just 20 total hitters a third time through the order), he has been as consistently effective as anyone.
Where that could change is with potential reinforcements.
It’s unclear how close Clayton Kershaw is to facing hitters in batting practice, much less playing in games. He’s thrown voluminous bullpen sessions to keep his arm moving, and added various insoles and removed a stud off his left cleat to take pressure off his ailing left big toe. At some point, Dave Roberts said last week, the Dodgers will have to give it a go and see if he’s able to pitch for them.
Then there’s Tony Gonsolin, who has yet to pitch this season but has gone from a long shot to contribute as a reliever to someone who could build up enough innings during his minor-league rehab to make a decent start. There’s a chance that Gonsolin’s next outing could be in the big leagues, making him one of just four pitchers in Jon Roegele’s public database to return from Tommy John surgery in 12 or fewer months (Gonsolin had his surgery on Sept. 1 last year).
Shohei Ohtani stays red hot
“I really haven’t seen a player as locked in like Shohei is, for as long as he’s been, in quite some time,” Roberts told reporters over the weekend.
It’s possible that no one ever has. As Eric Stephen of True Blue LA pointed out on Sunday afternoon, no player in major-league history has ever had a seven-game stretch with six or more homers and seven or more stolen bases … until Ohtani, the easy choice for NL Player of the Week honors.
Ohtani’s recent dominance has put his season once again into a unique perspective. Among players with at least 50 stolen bases in a season, Ohtani’s 1.023 OPS now ranks as the highest since George Sisler in 1922.
Third-base coach Dino Ebel joked that a run at 55-55 would be the goal next year after Ohtani’s marvelous season this year, but getting there this year remains eminently possible – he has 53 home runs and 55 stolen bases after Sunday, his 15th game this season with at least one stolen base and one home run (a major league record).
Four of those games have come in September and 11 since the All-Star break.
It’s a torrid stretch Ohtani suggested was close last week while on the verge of 50-50. He said: “I’m really just one little thing away from feeling good.”
It’s safe to say he’s feeling good. If he maintains that for the next few weeks, Ohtani could swing the Dodgers’ October fortunes as much as anyone.
(Photo of Shohei Ohtani: John McCoy / Getty Images)
