Average Draft Position reports and reviews of mock drafts can give us a good idea of the ranges where players may be targeted in fantasy football drafts. These drafting trends can serve as useful guides for where players may generally be taken, but are not meant to serve as rigid online reference manuals. Every individual draft has its own unique flow, and no fantasy leaguer firmly sticks to what ADP reports and mocks outline.
In high-stakes leagues, such as the National Fantasy Football Championship, Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) and The Fantasy Championship on RealTime Fantasy Sports, drafters will often pivot away from widely accepted values and outlooks. They will aggressively target and draft guys ahead of where others might usually take them to pounce on upside types or to ensure they land coveted players.
But that same approach can work well in any league because you just have to angle for the players you might like more than other drafters. That’s what we’re doing in today’s rundown. The draft targets highlighted below are either players I have pushed up on my own personal draft boards or players that will have to be taken ahead of their ADP indicators if you want a better chance of getting them.
Whether you agree with my own preferred targets or not, all the featured players here will be highly sought after. The analysis leans toward PPR formats, and ADP report markers are from FantasyPros.com.
Running backs
Josh Jacobs (ADPs – No. 12 RB, 28 overall): I have seen Jacobs taken later than the top half of the second round in some early drafts. I am personally willing to draft him as a top-10 RB. Jacobs is coming off a disappointing season, but I like that he joined an ascending Green Bay offense, where he will be the drive finisher for a healthy amount of TD runs. The 26-year-old is second only to Derrick Henry since 2019 in rushing yards and rushing TDs, as noted by Lindy’s Sports. A first-team All-Pro in 2020 and 2022, Jacobs is also durable, as he has never played less than 15 games in five seasons.
In the third round, if I started out with two wide receivers, Jacobs will be at or near the top of my queue as a favored RB target. If he slips to the back half of the third round or the fourth round, he has a good shot of landing on my roster. I am not drastically moving Jacobs up, but will consider him more favorably than some other drafters will.
Aaron Jones (RB18, 57 overall): Age 29 and injuries are legitimate concerns with Jones. When available, though, he can still display the talents that make him stand out, including good vision, elusiveness, power, breakaway ability and versatility as a pass-catching RB. Last season, including the playoffs, Jones reeled off five consecutive 100-yard rushing games and rushed for three TDs in the first round of the postseason. If he slips into the sixth round and you still need an RB2, go with Jones and back him up with Ty Chandler as a handcuff if possible.
D’Andre Swift (RB21, 65 overall): We have not seen Swift deliver his true best year yet, and he could witness his authentic breakout campaign in 2024. The Bears acquired the former Lion and Eagle to stabilize their RB1 position, and he should be busy as both a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield to support Chicago’s rookie QB. Last season, Swift ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,049) while ranking 17th among RBs in snap share (58.2 percent), according to PlayerProfiler.com. I will not hesitate to draft the newest Bear inside the top 20 at RB to ensure he is rostered as a later RB2/flex type.
Tyjae Spears (RB35, 100 overall): Many savvy drafters will push the second-year RB up the board, so you might have to start considering him a round earlier or so than the ADP would suggest. Tony Pollard and Spears were actually listed as co-starters on Tennessee’s first unofficial depth chart, and the ex-Cowboy doesn’t inspire much fantasy confidence after he didn’t impress as a featured back last season.
In 2023, Spears ranked fourth in juke rate, fifth in breakaway run rate, and sixth in yards per touch (5.5) among RBs, according to PlayerProfiler. The Titans’ 2023 third-round pick is a threat to bust loose for a sizable gain any time he touches the ball and certainly models as a tempting upside play.
Chase Brown (RB39, 119 overall): In many drafts, you will see Brown taken earlier than the 10th-round ADP would suggest, and his ADP might rise as the regular season draws closer. Late July reports of the second-year RB getting first-team reps have already started to boost his appeal. Zack Moss has never carried a significant load over a full season. Brown flashed some big-play promise last year, including a 54-yard TD reception. With more frequent work, he can at least push for a timeshare with Moss and will have flex value in such a scenario, while a higher ceiling will exist.
Rico Dowdle (RB46, 151 overall): Dowdle may be the most productive RB from the Dallas backfield, yet he is being drafted behind the likes of Blake Corum and Zach Charbonnet, who are clear No. 2 RBs on their respective teams. Ezekiel Elliott might function as a goal-line hammer for the Cowboys, but Dowdle may prove to be the most reliable Dallas RB for fantasy output.
The Dallas RB ranked ninth at his position in yards created per touch (3.9) last season. The stat was created by Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points and is defined as yards generated above and beyond what was blocked. Dowdle is a determined runner and has shown he can make defenders miss in limited action. Now with a path to many more touches, he is one of my preferred RB4 draft targets.
Wide receivers
Drake London (WR12, 24 overall): With the arrival of Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, London is a popular breakout candidate. If you buy into the Falcons’ No. 1 WR becoming a genuine fantasy WR1 this season, then drafting him ahead of guys like Chris Olave and Davante Adams, as a WR inside the top 12 might be the move to make. It’s a high-stakes type of extra-aggressive maneuver yet is one that could prove to be a difference-maker if it pays off.
London is the type of target that should be pushed up the board to make sure you land him if that is the desire. I think the comments field might include some Adams vs. London debate points, and I look forward to the takes from everyone.
DK Metcalf (WR21, 43 overall): I am aiming to draft Metcalf just outside the top 15 WRs, and in some early drafts with heavy WR builds to start out, I have actually been able to take him as a WR3. Last year, the Seahawks star averaged a career-high 16.9 yards per catch, which ranked fifth in the NFL. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is expected to conjure up more big plays. Last season, the Seahawks’ offense ran the fewest offensive plays in the NFL because the defense spent too much time on the field, which won’t be as much of an issue under Mike Macdonald.
Seattle’s offensive line also further improved by the addition of center Connor Williams, so Geno Smith will have more opportunities to run plays while getting better protection, too. The rise of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the continued presence of Tyler Lockett as a playmaker on key passing downs can help Metcalf face less heavy defensive attention. I view him as a possible high-end fantasy WR2 for 2024.
Malik Nabers (WR24, 52 overall): With every preseason report or clip that appears on social media or on prominent NFL platforms, the fantasy stock of Nabers will seemingly climb. You might have to target him in the top 15 WR range to have the best shot of drafting the exciting Giants rookie. He appears ticketed for a plethora of targets and may be ready to challenge top defensive backs right away. Nabers can make tough catches and flourish as a downfield target.
Fantasy players will have natural concerns about Daniel Jones, but we have to be open to seeing how he can work with a true standout type of WR. If Jones does falter at some point, Drew Lock throws a good deep ball and won’t hesitate to gun the ball to Nabers.
Tee Higgins (WR27, 56 overall): Injuries to Higgins and his QB led to his worst season yet. I am expecting a bounce-back campaign, and not receiving the contract extension he wanted might serve as additional fuel. Higgins is being drafted as a fantasy WR3, which positions him as a possible value who can provide WR2 production. He finished as WR16 in fantasy points per game in 2022.
Diontae Johnson (WR38, 89 overall): The Panthers prioritized acquiring Johnson as a No. 1 WR to jump-start the pro progress of Bryce Young. Last year, the ex-Steeler ranked third in dominator rating, a stat that measures a player’s percentage of his team’s offensive production. Johnson obviously embraces the role of being a featured WR. He ranked first in ESPN Open Score over the past two seasons, and none of the Carolina WRs ranked in the top 36 in that metric last year. I expect the 28-year-old to function as a quality fantasy WR3 in PPR formats.
Jameson Williams (WR47, 116 overall): The Lions’ speedster has an ADP that points to him being drafted as a back-end fantasy WR4, but I will attempt to pick him just outside the WR3 range. Injuries and a suspension have stunted his early NFL development. But Williams is generating positive preseason reports. An uninterrupted preseason and opening to the 2024 schedule can help him ramp up for positive fantasy returns. The third-year man has a lot of promise as a big-play type and could come through with some nice spike weeks if he settles into the No.2 WR role for Detroit.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels (QB12, 106 overall): The very appealing rushing potential for the Washington rookie is evident, and in some drafts, especially high-stakes leagues, he may be targeted as a top 10 fantasy QB. I have already seen him picked in that range in a few early drafts.
Considering that Washington’s offensive line is ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus and there will be concerns about how Daniels exposes himself to some big hits, I am more in line with his current ADP. If you want to go for Washington’s new dual threat, aiming for him as a top 10 QB will significantly increase the chances of landing him.
Will Levis (QB24, 190 overall): I expect the second-year QB to be an aggressive slinger, yet he is being drafted at the end of the fantasy QB2 range. In 2023, Levis ranked second among all QBs in deep ball catchable pass rate, and the Tennessee front office cleared the way for him to be the unquestioned starter. I would make sure to take a late flier on the Tennessee passer, especially in superflex leagues as a nifty QB3 pick.
Tight ends
Tyler Conklin (TE20, 191 overall): For those who wait longer to draft a TE and need a streaming alternative, or simply want to target a viable TE2, Conklin should be considered. The Jets don’t have a proven or reliable WR2, as Mike Williams is a notorious injury risk and Malachi Corley has to establish himself as a pro.
Even if Corley does emerge as a quality option for Aaron Rodgers, Conklin can contribute enough as a third pass-catcher. He totaled 61 receptions last year, which ranked 11th at the position while dealing with the Jets’ awful QB play. Conklin can be a respectable fantasy producer this season, especially if Rodgers looks to him frequently as a TD target. I would aim for him a few spots outside the top 15 TE range.
Colby Parkinson (TE40, 303 overall): This former Seahawk is projected to be the No. 1 TE for the Rams, yet he is totally off the fantasy radar of most drafters. I am pushing Parkinson into the final round of drafts as a TE2 target, and he is a deep sleeper who is even more appealing as a gem in TE premium formats. There is no timetable for the return of Tyler Higbee from a knee injury, yet he has an ADP one slot higher than Parkinson. The 6-foot-7, 265-pounder can find soft spots in coverages and gain some yardage after the catch. He will also be a useful TD option for Matthew Stafford.
(Photo of DK Metcalf: Jane Gershovich / Getty Images)
