We’ve seen all kinds of movement in the polls away from Joe Biden and toward former President Donald Trump, and it has to be giving the Democrats fits behind the scenes.
All the groups the Democrats think are normally with them seem to be having folks abandoning Biden, and even traditionally blue states are showing shocking poll numbers favoring Trump, like in Virginia and Minnesota. Even New York has been moving into single digits. As former Republican congressman and gubernatorial candidate in New York, Lee Zeldin explained, it was pretty astonishing how close it was getting there.
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If there was ever a state that one would bet their money on to stay in the grip of the Democrats, it might be New Jersey.
But now there’s a poll out that is truly shocking; it has Trump up in New Jersey by one point.
📊 NEW JERSEY GE: @coefficientpoll
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK/3rd Party: 7%
⬜ Undecided:13%
—
Senate
🟦 Kim: 39%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 25%H2H Ballot –
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 34%
⬜ Undecided: 25%#237 (1.1/3.0) | June 26-27 | 810 LV… pic.twitter.com/X5CNraZXL4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
Trump is leading Biden 41 to 40, when one counts in Robert F. Kennedy Jr at 7 percent and undecided at 13. If there was ever a “wow,” that would be it. In the 2020 election, Biden was up about 16 percent. If it’s moved that close, that’s incredible.
The poll is of likely voters, so that’s good. It’s even from before the debate, so that hasn’t influenced it. That might even make the numbers move more in Trump’s favor. CNN’s snap poll after the debate said 67 percent thought that Trump won, compared to 33 for Biden.
Now I’m from New Jersey, although I was able to move to Texas, so I’m hesitant to jump on the poll and say New Jersey is in play. We’ll have to see more polling post-debate, for example, before I would jump to that conclusion. And there do seem to be a lot of undecideds there, so it’s not clear how they would break. New Jersey hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1988 and George H.W. Bush. That’s a long time.
This movement is telling, I think, and it is in line with what we’re seeing in places like Minnesota and Virginia, and even New York, where Biden is losing ground. We saw tens of thousands come out for Trump in Wildwood, New Jersey.
I’m cautiously optimistic, seeing so much movement in other blue states and a lot of people fleeing Biden. If this poll is true, if we get more evidence that Trump is ahead in New Jersey, we could be looking at a blowout. But the only way you make blowouts come true is to get everyone out to vote and make sure you have those votes in the bank.
Don’t assume, make it happen everywhere.
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