There’s a trend growing in the commonwealth of Virginia that indicates the Old Dominion might actually be in play for Donald Trump, which is very bad news indeed for Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party. If Democrats aren’t screaming “Assume crash positions!” right about now, they might want to think about starting.
Early voting in Virginia, which Democrats tends to dominate, began back on September 25, and Republicans seem to be turning out in far greater numbers than expected. As of Monday, October 14, 2024, the early voting/absentee ballot numbers looked something like this:
693,662 votes cast
Democrats: 52.8%
Republicans: 41.5%
Yes, Democrats still hold the advantage of total votes cast thus far, but Republican voters, who are known to shy away from early voting in favor of voting in person on Election Day, are closing the traditional gap in a big, big way. Experts would expect to see Democrats have around a 30 percent advantage at this point, but they only hold an 11.3 percent lead.
Virginia Voted Early or Absentee as of 10/14/24
693,662 Dem 52.8% /NP 5.63%/ Rep 41.5%
18-29 6.30 % / 30-39 6.05% / 40-49 8.11% / 50-64 25.8% /65+53.7%*VA is a MODELED PARTY AFFILIATION STATE – Follow L2-data for Non Partisan Early Return Information https://t.co/BjqITtVAHZ pic.twitter.com/Jrjqax04hC
— L2 Data (@L2political) October 14, 2024
The experts, of course, could be wrong, but here’s how things stood on November 1, 2020, after all early voting had ended.
Virginia Early Return Ballots: 2,356,812 28% R / 61% D / 11% NP
A: 18-29 13% / 30-39 12% / 40-49 14% / 50-64 29% / 65+ 31%
Asian 4% / White 66% / Hispanic 5% / AfAm 14%
HS Diploma 16% / Bach Degree 21% / Grad Degree+ 16%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 13% https://t.co/Zwc2KpkpU2 pic.twitter.com/rByc0xGJhL— L2 Data (@L2political) November 1, 2020
For those keeping score at home, that’s a 33 percent Dem advantage back in 2020, as opposed to 11.3 percent in 2024.
One observer who’s been keeping tabs on early voting in Virginia tweeted this out Monday afternoon:
A tsunami of early votes over the weekend has resulted in…VA getting redder.
13 days of early voting gains for Democrats were wiped out in a single weekend.
We still need more data to draw hard conclusions (reporting lag could very well mean that Dems gain back some ground they’ve lost tomorrow), but this is precisely what Republicans should be hoping for.
Well, well, well.
Virginia wasn’t even remotely considered to be in play for Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in 2020 in a 54.1 percent to 44 percent split. Just a week ago, polling out of Christopher Newport University (CNU) had Kamala Harris holding onto Biden’s 2020 margin, even widening it a little bit. The candidates themselves aren’t campaigning in the former swing state since it looked like an impossibility for Trump to win there.
At the same time, one big clue was dropped by the Democrats that they were worried that Virginia is not locked up for them: The Biden-Harris Department of Justice filed a lawsuit Friday against Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin for removing illegals from the commonwealth’s voting rolls. Youngkin issued an executive order back in August that removed thousands of non-citizens from the rolls. The Biden-Harris DOJ had nothing to say at the time, but something must have them spooked.
Youngkin wasn’t having any of it, saying of the lawsuit:
“Virginians – and Americans – will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy.”
With only twenty-two days left until the election, things are getting pretty interesting. Virginia has a senatorial race going on, too, with the seemingly-entrenched Democrat Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential pick back in 2016, facing off against Republican Hung Cao. That same CNU poll showing Kamala with a significant lead also showed Kaine leading Cao by a whopping twenty points. Cao performed very well in his recent debate against Kaine, where he hit a home run with his messaging:
“Ask yourself, are you better off today than you were four years ago? Across the board, the answer is no. The only people better off today than they were four years ago are illegal aliens, criminals and senators like Senator Tim Kaine.”
Could the red early-voting trend mean yet another Senate seat in danger of being flipped for Republicans. Hard to say, but 2024 is one odd year.
The stumbling block for any Republican is the populous, deep-blue Northern Virginia area, home to many federal workers and an area that benefits greatly from big government’s largesse. Trump doesn’t have to win there, he just needs to chip away just enough votes to allow the rest of the state to carry him. It’s a long-shot, but the early-voting numbers are very good news for the GOP.
We now take you live to Democrat Party headquarters for their reaction:
