By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman
The strength of the 2024 NHL Draft is no secret. While the top pick in the draft is expected to be Boston University center Macklin Celebrini, the real defining characteristic of this year’s draft class is the loaded group of blueliners.
After just two defensemen went inside the top 10 of last year’s draft, it’s entirely possible we could see more than twice that number picked in the same range come June 28. The strength of that group will make some NHL teams very happy, but it will also be the source of much debate as teams decide which blueliners they like most.
GO DEEPER
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We asked The Athletic’s resident prospect experts, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, to do just that, going head-to-head on their favorite ‘D’ prospects in this class.
Bultman: OK gentlemen, last time we convened we had you zero in on just one decision, the Blackhawks at No. 2. Today I want to cover a few more players you differ on in your lists. I think the most interesting name that fits that theme high in the draft is Calgary (WHL) RHD Carter Yakemchuk. Scott has him at 13, but Corey, you have him all the way up at No. 3. So we’ll start with Corey: What makes you so excited about this player?
Pronman: I think there’s a ton to be excited about in Yakemchuk’s game. He’s a 6-3 defenseman who is among the most purely skilled players in the draft. He was a constant highlight-reel machine in the WHL. You add one of the best shots in the draft and a player who has some physicality and it’s an exciting package. People will pick apart his skating. It’s not the prettiest stride but he blows by people regularly and I think it’s more a strength thing than a deep issue. He is better offensively than in his own end but I think with all the tools: his length, feet and compete you can mold that player into a two-way force. He projects as a No. 1 defenseman in the NHL for me.
Bultman: Scott, what are your concerns on Yakemchuk, obviously with the caveat you still have him pretty high on your list?
Wheeler: I think his feet and mobility are a minor concern in terms of his projection defensively. He doesn’t move particularly naturally, and can look clumsy or sluggish at times. His pivots and recoveries can be sloppy. He’ll get caught flat-footed. He finished 33rd of 35 skaters in overall on-ice testing results at the CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game. I know he’s not a natural athlete in the gym. He’s got some work to do on that front if he’s going to improve his defense (and it was part of the reason he took so many minor penalties this year).
He also just doesn’t read it/make the best decisions defensively, so there’s some growth that needs to happen there as well. His below-average feet/smarts were enough for me to rank him after the other top D in the class despite his obvious talent, physicality, size, etc. If he can improve in those areas, though, he’s got the skill to be a high-end NHL D. I expect they’ll keep him from being a No. 1 though.
Bultman: Corey, you already addressed the skating portion, but I wanted to see what you thought about the defending in particular. Even if it’s not the reason a team is drafting him, what gives you faith he can round out that part of his game?
Pronman: I don’t have a big issue with his defending. It’s certainly not a selling point, and he will have to work on his gaps. I think it’s mostly nitpicking though. I see a defenseman with length, good mobility for his size, good hockey sense, and strong compete. I think you can mold that player into a good defender as a pro. I saw the same critiques of Yakemchuk in Luke Hughes and Pavel Mintyukov. They’re not the same players, but they were very toolsy defensemen who constantly were in attack mode and got criticized because they weren’t responsible defensively enough. I think that when Yakemchuk has the puck on his stick all the time when he’s on the ice helps his team keep pucks out of the net.
Bultman: Let’s shift gears to another defenseman. Anton Silayev is a mammoth of a player at 6-foot-7, checking in at No. 4 on Corey’s list but No. 9 for Scott. Scott, we’ll give you the first word here on Silayev: What keeps him outside that very top group for you?
Wheeler: Silayev was a player I had at No. 6 on my preliminary list and No. 5 at midseason, so he’s certainly a prospect whose merits I can appreciate in that range. At his size, with his mobility, his defensive ceiling is sky high. He’s physical. He can move (his frame and pucks). As the season went on, though, I didn’t see the progression in his game offensively after a strong start that I was hoping for in terms of a top, top ranking. He’s not the most intelligent player with the puck and a lot of his game inside the offensive zone is rushing shots on net. I want to see him play with more poise. While his defensive upside is among the highest in the draft and he does have some offense, his play with the puck (even though he has some talent) and sense offensively trail well behind Levshunov, Buium and Parekh.
Bultman: Corey, you have him above all those names besides Levshunov. Where does your assessment differ?
Pronman: Well, I don’t see him scoring or running a power play like Levshunov, Buium or Parekh. But he’s worlds better defensively than those players as well. The puck play was a concern for me the season prior, but I didn’t have an issue with it this year. He showed he could move pucks in the KHL, he displayed enough creativity and vision as a handler for me to think he will have NHL offense. He went to play for the Russian U20 team at the end of the season and showed strong offensive play there too.
I realize he got off to an unsustainable hot start with points, but he had more KHL points in his draft season than pure skill types like Kirill Kaprizov, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vitali Kravtsov. He scored as many points in the KHL as Jamie Oleksiak did in college as a draft eligible. I don’t see offensive dynamo, but I think he’s going to be a 35-45 point defenseman who smothers opponents’ top forwards.
How high will Ivan Demidov go in the 2024 NHL Draft? (Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images)
Bultman: I want to go back to you quickly Corey, to talk about the Russia factor here. He’s in a different organization (and played in a different league) than Ivan Demidov this year, but live views over there are still hard to come by right now. How much do you see that affecting Silayev and his stock?
Pronman: Well, I’ve seen Demidov live more than Silayev (although that last live view was two and a half years ago!). Silayev was easier for teams to see live because the KHL crosses over into countries outside Russia at times. It was still a very small number of non-Russia-based scouts who saw him live though. I think with both of those players it’s easy for us to watch the video, look at their stat page and surmise where they should fit in the draft. With a top 5-10 pick though the consequences of getting that decision wrong are severe.
I can certainly see teams look at Sam Dickinson and Carter Yakemchuk and say to themselves if we want a big defenseman there are other options I’m very happy with, who we’ve gotten to know very well and seen in person dozens of times. I think the betting odds are 1-2 of Demidov/Silayev go in the top five, but I can see at least one of them getting past that range.
Silayev to me is such a rare player though. He’s like Owen Power, in the length/mobility combo to go with offense even though Owen is smarter (and Silayev meaner). I don’t see many NHL teams passing on him even with the risks of picking a KHL player.
Bultman: OK, let’s go to Scott now on a player he’s higher on than Corey is. Zayne Parekh is one of the premier puck-movers in this class, and Scott has him ranked fifth, right after Zeev Buium. Corey has him at No. 9, with a whole tier gap behind Buium. Scott, what’s the case for Parekh in the top 5?
Wheeler: Parekh’s skill level and offensive sense/intuition are among the highest I’ve seen in a draft-eligible D. He’s a magnetic offensive talent with a remarkable feel for the game with the puck. He’s just got a rare ability to turn puck touches into moments of brilliance. And it doesn’t just come from his individual skill, or his shot. It’s also the way he sees it and the cleverness of his game in both quick little plays he identifies ahead of opposing players and also the long ones he’s able to manufacture.
Increasingly, he has also learned to use that sixth sense he has to anticipate defensively at a high level, breaking up a ton of plays with his stick. Once I saw him defend at a high level, excel on the penalty kill, and really begin to take over and steer games, rather than just the offense, I was sold on his star power. I won’t be surprised if Parekh becomes the top D of the bunch. I know there are some scouts who have him as their top-ranked D and I wasn’t far off from that, honestly.
Bultman: Corey, what creates the tier of separation between Buium and Parekh for you?
Pronman: I think Buium has just as much offense as Parekh but the defense is better. I grade his skating higher and thought he was a solid college defender as opposed to Parekh being an average junior defender. I don’t think Parekh’s defense is an issue but it’s not a strength. Parekh has elite hockey sense but so does Buium. Parekh dominated junior but Buium was more impressive for me given the level of play he faced. I think Buium is simply dynamic and has the potential to be a star who can play all situations.
I think Parekh can be like Evan Bouchard. He’ll get you numbers and be awesome on a power play but you’ll be nervous defensively.
Bultman: Scott, what would you say to that? Do you have any hesitance there with Parekh’s defense?
Wheeler: Evan Bouchard has played 25 minutes a night to the best goal-differential results on the Stanley Cup finalists, so I think he has answered questions about his defense pretty emphatically in the last few months. I believe Parekh, with the way he thinks and sees the game, will also figure out how he needs to defend in the NHL in order to get out there for big minutes so that he can put up big numbers as well.
I’m in line with Corey on the rest of his side-by-side comps there, and also have Buium ahead of Parekh on my list, but don’t see a clear tier division between the two.
Bultman: OK, onto one more really interesting name here. Stian Solberg had a big performance at the men’s World Championship for an 18-year-old defenseman, and you both now have a first-round ranking on him. Scott has him at No. 21, and Corey all the way up at No. 12. Corey, we’ll start with you. What made you feel comfortable putting Solberg in the top half of the first round?
Pronman: I don’t know if comfortable is the right way to describe a player who played all year in Norway. I would certainly like more data on him. But he certainly elevated a lot for me about his fantastic world championships where he was a top player for a Norway team that held their own. You don’t want to overrate two weeks but it made me go back into his other international events over the years and I saw a lot of the same. He’s a super physical 6-2 defender who can skate. The puck play rightfully got picked apart due to his mediocre world juniors but he’s shown much better in that regard elsewhere, especially at the worlds where he led the first PP unit for Norway and showed solid skill and instincts. His offense won’t be his calling card, but decent offense hyper-physical defensemen who are athletic go in the top 20 all day.
Bultman: Scott, last word to you. What’s your read on Solberg and where he fits in this class?
Wheeler: Solberg has emerged as the No. 7 D in the class for most folks (myself included) because of the pro look (the strength, physicality, and athleticism) of his game. He’s a safe bet to be a top-six NHL D and has good odds of becoming a top-four one. I do think he showed more offense in his game as the year progressed, even if his play with the puck comes with some mistakes at times. I don’t think he thinks the game necessarily all that well, but his tools allow him to play on instinct and have a real impact on shifts/games. When I look at the draft order, though, No. 14 to San Jose is the upper limit on where I’d consider taking him though. In front of that, I just think the available forwards have more upside.
Philip Broberg (No. 8), Kaiden Guhle (No. 16), Corson Ceulemans (No. 25), Nolan Allan (No. 32), Braden Schneider (No. 19) and Lassi Thomson (No. 19) are all recent first-round picks with some similarities in tools/style. I think he’s in the tier of Guhle/Schneider more than a Thomson/Ceulemans/Allan but I also think you’re better off taking him in a Guhle/Schneider range than closer to Broberg’s.
(Top photo of Artyom Levshunov: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images)
