College football Week 11 odds, picks against the spread: Ole Miss-Georgia, Alabama-LSU and more

The initial College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and several games on the Week 11 slate will significantly impact the eventual 12-team field.

If last week was all about the Big Ten, this week, the spotlight moves to the SEC. The SEC claims the only two matchups between teams in the initial CFP rankings, including the annual clash between Alabama and LSU. This year’s encounter in Baton Rouge likely eliminates the loser from playoff consideration.

The SEC’s other ranked showdown has No. 3 Georgia heading to Oxford to face No. 16 Ole Miss. The Bulldogs, along with No. 5 Texas, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 15 LSU, have just one conference loss, so this weekend starts what will be a mad dash to the finish line for the coveted spots in the SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns host Florida, and the Volunteers welcome Mississippi State to Knoxville this weekend while the Aggies are on bye.

Elsewhere, the five remaining undefeated FBS teams will be in action. No. 1 Oregon hosts Maryland, No. 8 Indiana takes on Michigan, No. 9 BYU renews its historic rivalry with Utah in Salt Lake City, and No. 25 Army is at North Texas. The Black Knights are currently behind No. 12 Boise State (vs. Nevada) for the Group of 5’s automatic playoff bid.

After the SEC, the Big 12 may be the conference with the most intrigue in Week 11. BYU is currently atop the standings, with No. 17 Iowa State and No. 20 Colorado a game behind. Similar to the Cougars, the Cyclones (at Kansas) and Buffaloes (at Texas Tech) are on the road this Saturday.

—Mark Ross

All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the College Football Playoff Rankings. All odds are from BetMGM.

No. 4 Miami at Georgia Tech

Noon on Fubo, ESPN

Despite a 9-0 record, Miami remains a rollercoaster team. The Hurricanes picked up their third double-digit comeback win of the season last week against Duke. They now hit the road to face Georgia Tech as a double-digit favorite.

Miami leads the country in points per game (47.4) and total yards per game (556.9), thanks in no small part to quarterback Cam Ward. The 22-year-old is in his fifth year starting in college football, and he sometimes looks like a man amongst boys. He is the current co-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy on BetMGM and is the biggest reason for Miami’s turnaround from a 7-6 season last year.

Most of the enthusiasm around Georgia Tech that originated from the season-opening win against Florida State has faded. The Seminoles are somehow 1-8, meaning that a quality win at the time wasn’t actually a quality win. Plus, the Yellow Jackets have lost two in a row by multiple scores to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech with quarterback Haynes King out. Still, at 5-4, Georgia Tech is one win away from making a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2013 and 2014.

King has a chance to return in this one, which could make it interesting. In his absence, GT posted its two lowest point totals of the season (13 and 6).

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

Florida at No. 5 Texas

Noon on Fubo, ABC

Florida-Texas is a meeting of two powers in the sport, although neither program has been going through its best period in the last several years. While last year and this year signal that the Longhorns are finally back, the Gators are still searching for their return to contention. That’s why Texas is favored by three scores.

Florida (4-4) is fresh off giving Georgia a tough game on a neutral field, something Texas could not do on its field. The Gators were tied with Georgia in the fourth quarter before losing by 14, and that’s with quarterback DJ Lagway going down with a hamstring injury in the first half. Florida was already without Graham Mertz due to injury, which means third-string QB Aidan Warner is expected to start against Texas. Warner was just 7-of-22 against Georgia and threw an interception, so there’s a chance this one gets really ugly for Florida.

Texas (7-1) could use an ego-boosting romp. After getting manhandled by Georgia a few weeks ago, the Longhorns barely escaped Nashville with a 27-24 win against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is no slouch, but Texas had cruised through its first six games. The last two games have raised some questions about Texas’ national title credentials. The Longhorns are coming off a bye week.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

3:30 p.m. on Fubo, ABC

The big change with the expanded playoff in college football isn’t that it cheapened the regular season. It is that it made so many more games meaningful, and Saturday’s Georgia vs. Ole Miss game is at the top of the list. Despite having two losses, Ole Miss is still very much in the playoff race and has a chance to make a big move up the rankings if it can pull off an upset against the Bulldogs. Georgia enters the game as a small road favorite.

As good as Georgia is, there are still a lot of questions about this year’s Bulldogs team. While still strong, the defense is not quite as consistently dominant as it has been in recent years, while quarterback Carson Beck has gone from looking like a potential top NFL draft pick to a massive question mark in just a few weeks. Turnovers have been a huge issue for Beck this season, having already thrown 11 interceptions on 290 pass attempts. For comparison, he only had six interceptions on 417 pass attempts a year ago.

Beck’s struggles have been especially noticeable when under pressure, and that could be the X-factor that tilts the game in Ole Miss’ favor on Saturday. Ole Miss has one of the country’s most disruptive pass rushes, having already accumulated 41 sacks, the most in the nation.

Offensively, everything runs through quarterback Jaxson Dart, who is having another spectacular season as a dual-threat quarterback. He enters Saturday’s game, completing over 71 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns to only three interceptions while rushing for 254 yards and three additional touchdowns.

—Adam Gretz

Picks against the spread

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

3:30 p.m. on Fubo, CBS

Who is having more fun than Indiana this season? Not only are the Hoosiers 9-0 for the first time in school history, they have played as close to perfect as a college football team can. At No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings, they boast the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 7 scoring defense and have gone 8-1 against the spread. Don’t expect that to change with unranked Michigan coming to town, even with Indiana as two-touchdown favorites.

First-year coach Curt Cignetti has the keys to Bloomington right now, having turned a team projected to finish 17th in the Big Ten into one expected to take a swing at the conference title in December.

The nearest to trouble the Hoosiers have been was last week when they trailed for the first time this season against Michigan State. Down 10-0, Indiana decided they’d had enough of new experiences. By halftime it was 21-10 Hoosiers, by the end it was 47-10. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke flipped the offensive switch, as he has all year. The senior MAC transfer is tied for the Big Ten lead with 19 touchdown passes, neck and neck with Will Howard from Ohio State and Dillon Gabriel from Oregon. He leads the conference in efficiency rating and yards gained per pass attempt and is second in the nation with just three interceptions.

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers allow the third-fewest total yards per game (261) and have the nation’s best run defense (72.6 yards per game). Given rushing is all Michigan can do, it doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines heading into Memorial Stadium. But if 5-4 Michigan is resigned to a bad season, they’d happily settle for ruining someone else’s good one. Any win against a ranked conference team is as precious as gold in a down year, so the Wolverines have something to fight for. They just don’t have the firepower to ruin this party.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

No. 20 Colorado at Texas Tech

4 p.m. on Fubo, FOX

With a 4-1 record in the Big 12, Deion Sanders has a chance to take Colorado to primetime this season. The Buffaloes have already sealed bowl eligibility and are tied for second in the Big 12. That means there are real stakes for this week’s game at Texas Tech. Colorado enters as a small favorite.

Colorado (6-2) is coming off a bye week and arguably its best season win the week before. The Buffaloes beat Cincinnati 34-23 in Boulder, giving Colorado its first win against a team with a winning record in Big 12 play. Like Colorado, Texas Tech (6-3, 4-1 Big 12) is in the conference race and coming off its best win of the season. Tech won at Iowa State in a downpour to knock the Cyclones from the list of unbeaten teams.

When talking about Colorado, the attention off the field goes to Deion. On the field, it deservedly goes to Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Hunter’s two-way skillset is one-of-a-kind in college football, and Shedeur is completing 73.3 percent of his passes to go with 21 passing touchdowns.

With a total in the 60s, this one has a chance to turn into a shootout worthy of Texas Tech’s “guns up” celebration. Both teams are averaging more than 30 points per game.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU

7:30 p.m. on Fubo, ABC

It’s always a big deal when Alabama and LSU play each other, which is why College GameDay will be making yet another trip to Baton Rouge for this game. This year’s encounter between the Crimson Tide, who are slight road favorites, and the Tigers is no different from past ones in that it will impact the postseason.

The discrepancy, however, is that No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 15 LSU (6-2, 3-1) already have two losses on their resumes and are looking up at plenty of teams in the conference. So it’s pretty simple — win on Saturday night to keep your SEC Championship Game or College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Both the Tide and Tigers are coming off a bye, so they should be relatively healthy and have had plenty of time to prepare. There are also many statistical similarities on both sides of the ball, so the drastic differences could be the key.

On offense, plenty of attention will be paid to quarterbacks Jalen Milroe and Garrett Nussmeier, but the running games are what bear watching. While Alabama’s ground attack hasn’t been prolific against SEC competition (141.4 yards per game, eighth in the conference), it still dwarfs LSU’s production.

The Tigers are averaging less than 100 rushing yards per conference game, including a measly 24 yards on 23 carries in their 38-23 loss to Texas A&M two weeks ago. And don’t forget that Milroe ran wild (155 yards, four touchdowns) against LSU last season.

Neither defense has been that stingy this season, although statistically speaking, both units have performed well against the pass, recording more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed in SEC contests. The difference, once again, could be what happens on the ground.

The Tigers surrendered 242 rushing yards to the Aggies, the second time they have allowed that many in SEC play (South Carolina, 243 on Sept. 14). The Crimson Tide gave up 214 in their Oct. 19 road loss to Tennessee.

Alabama has dominated this series recently, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings, but LSU was victorious the last time this game was played in Death Valley.

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

No. 9 BYU at Utah

10:15 p.m. on Fubo, ESPN

The BYU-Utah rivalry has one of the best nicknames in the sport: The Holy War. This year’s edition has massive stakes for undefeated BYU, which is trying to stay in the mix for the College Football Playoff. Utah’s season has fallen way short of preseason expectations, but the Utes could salvage something with a win. BYU enters as the favorite but by less than a touchdown.

The Cougars are 8-0, a feat accomplished by the Zach Wilson-led team in 2020, and the only team with an undefeated record in Big 12 play. There aren’t any games against top-25 opponents currently on BYU’s remaining schedule, although Arizona State could be when the Cougars head to Tempe in two weeks. That means a slip-up before the Big 12 title game would put any chance of an at-large CFP berth for BYU in doubt.

The preseason favorite in the Big 12, Utah has had a nightmare season. The Utes are 1-4 in conference play and have lost four straight since a 4-0 start. They haven’t scored 20 points in any of those losses. Quarterback Cameron Rising has been dealing with injuries and has only played in three games. While Utah’s offense isn’t scaring anyone without Rising, the Utes’ defense is 15th in the country in yards allowed per game (303.5).

The Utes won’t be able to keep up in a shootout, but this one likely won’t become one.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock: Duke/North Carolina State under 52.5

Chris Vannini: San Diego State/New Mexico under 67.5

Dan Santaromita: Nevada/Boise State over 60.5

David Ubben: Middle Tennessee +11 vs. Liberty

Picks records

(Photo of Ryan Williams: Jason Clark / Getty Images)