Another fantastic week of college football and another week of my college football projection model staying flat against the betting market. For the fourth straight week, the model has seen either a profit or loss of less than one unit (three winning weeks, one losing week).
Last week was a bit unfortunate. South Florida had to move their game to Orlando (I thought they were going to play Sunday), and UCF made a quarterback change that seemed to come out of nowhere. Win some, lose some. It is what it is.
Last week’s record: 4-4, -0.35 units
Season record: 26-29-2, -3.99 units, -6.4% ROI
Five bets to kick off the card this week, including one in the game of the week for the second straight week. Let’s hope the underdog can come out as a winner for us one more time. A few totals will come over the next day or two as we get a bit closer to kick-off and get a better picture of what the weather will look like. As always, shop around for the best price! Good luck to us!
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Best bets for college football Week 8
Georgia +3.5 (-110) at Texas
I have no problem making Texas the favorite at home against Georgia, but over a field goal is a bit too rich for me. Georgia might have some issues on offense but the defense is still elite. And while Texas has put up great defensive numbers this season, they haven’t really played the best competition so far. I think Georgia is by far the best offense they’ve faced this season and I think that shows up on Saturday.
- Worst price to bet: Georgia +3 (-110)
Arizona State +3 (-105) at Cincinnati
Arizona State should have a matchup advantage on the ground in this one. The Sun Devils are 14th in rushing success rate on offense, according to gameonpaper.com. The Cincinnati defense ranks 103rd in the same metric. If Cincinnati is going to leak yards on the ground all night, they’ll be hard-pressed to win the game, let alone cover this number. My projections have this game closer to a pick ’em.
- Worst price to bet: Arizona State +3 (-110)
Rutgers -6.5 (-110) vs. UCLA
UCLA has had a brutal schedule from a travel perspective. They started off the year at Hawai’i, had a bye before playing at home, then traveled to LSU, then back home, then to Penn State, then back home, before now traveling to Rutgers. That’s a lot of travel for a team that’s not very good. Factor in a noon ET start and a lot of things are going against the Bruins from a situational standpoint. And that’s before I get to my number, which is almost double digits. Anything at a touchdown or less is worth a shot on Rutgers here.
- Worst price to bet: Rutgers -7 (-110)
Michigan -1.5 (-105) at Illinois
This is a buy-low spot on Michigan. The defending national champions seemed to expect now-starting quarterback Jack Tuttle to be their starter all season, but recovery from an injury last season took longer than expected. That’s caused the offense to be absolutely anemic against anyone with a pulse this year. Tuttle should give them a bit of a downfield passing game while also being able to take care of the football. Does he make them good? Absolutely not. But he’s certainly an upgrade.
- Worst price to bet: Michigan -2.5 (-110)
West Virginia +3 (-110) vs. Kansas State
Headed back to the well here with West Virginia after losing on them last week. Their game against Iowa State didn’t scream double-digit loss and actually looked like a pretty even game. Kansas State is on back-to-back road games, so a little bit of a tough spot here as well. West Virginia can’t really defend the pass, but Kansas State isn’t all that great at throwing it. The Big 12 should be entertaining over the back half of the season, and I wouldn’t mind kicking it off with an upset here by the Mountaineers.
- Worst price to bet: West Virginia +3 (-110)
(Photo of Branson Robinson: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
