Another week of squeaking out some profit and you’ll hear no complaints from me. It would have been an even nicer week for us, but I decided to bet an under with Ashton Jeanty, and that guy is a one-man touchdown machine. Seriously, if you haven’t watched Jeanty, he’s the current Heisman favorite, the best running back in college football and single-handedly destroys unders.
Anyway, a winning week is a winning week. Hopefully we can find a bigger week at some point, but we just keep chugging along with the process. If we have to grind out profits, we will be profitable by the end of the year … just barely.
Last week’s record: 4-3, +0.70 units
Season record: 22-25-2, -3.64 units, -6.8% ROI
This week’s card kicks off with six plays. Two of them might have a hurricane impact in the middle of the week, but I think should be good by the weekend. Is that an issue? Possibly, but the value is there in those games. And we also have a play in one of the marquee games this week. Actually, it’s THE marquee game of the week.
As always, shop around for the best price, as that will pay off in the long run. Good luck to us!
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Best bets for college football Week 7
South Florida +7 (-110) vs. Memphis
The matchup that I like here is South Florida’s run defense against the Memphis rushing attack. South Florida grades out as an average rush defense so far this year, and they’ve played a pretty tough schedule. Memphis laying a touchdown on the road will be tough if they’re not able to run the ball efficiently against USF’s front seven. I would not play this at +6.5.
- Worst price to bet: South Florida +7 (-115)
Miami Ohio -3 (-110) at Eastern Michigan
Part of me wants to just say that this is a fade of Eastern Michigan because they only beat Kent State by 19 and surrendered 33 points to the Golden Flash with their third-string quarterback. There are some 2.5s out there with a little bit of juice; I’d be fine with playing those at -115 or better. Since that price isn’t widely available, I’m good with -3 here.
- Worst price to bet: Miami Ohio -3 (-110)
UCF -3 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
This is a buy-low spot for me on UCF. They’re at home, off of two poor showings against Colorado and Florida. Our friends at BetMGM have the best price in market, and I think this is a good spot to get right for the Golden Knights. Despite the back-to-back losses, my model expects UCF to have a ton of success on the ground against Cincinnati, and that’s great to pair with just needing to win by a field goal.
- Worst price to bet: UCF -3 (-110)
West Virginia +3 (-105) vs. Iowa State
My model has been low on West Virginia all season long, so I was a bit surprised to see an edge on them here against Iowa State. A matchup here where I think West Virginia will benefit greatly is that Iowa State will want to run the ball when the way to beat West Virginia is through the air. I’m not totally bought on Iowa State’s offense going on the road and winning a close one against a West Virginia offense that has moved the ball against everyone not named Penn State this season.
- Worst price to bet: West Virginia +3 (-115)
Arizona +4 (-110) at BYU
I’m fading BYU here. They’re ranked inside the top 15 in both polls but my model has them in the 40s. They’re 5-0, yes, but I’m not buying in on them just yet and I think they’re being overvalued by the market. They’re a defensive team that I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay more than field goal with against similar competition. My model has this game closer to a coin flip.
- Worst price to bet: Arizona +3.5 (-110)
Oregon +3.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State
It’s the biggest weekend of the season; I had to have a bet on one of the marquee matchups. Well, not really. I wouldn’t be betting on this if I didn’t think there was value. Fortunately for me, I think Oregon is getting too many points in this matchup. Yes, Ohio State is a machine, and I do have concerns about Oregon against top competition — they don’t have the greatest track record the last few years — but I’m not in love with laying the points with the Buckeyes offense on the road either. I think Ohio State should be favored, but I’m not confident it should be more than a field goal.
- Worst price to bet: Oregon +3.5 (-110)
(Photo of Dillon Gabriel: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
