Amid all the “vibes” and proclamations of joy, Kamala Harris’ campaign isn’t going quite as well as her handlers and the press would have you believe. A new report from CNN is shedding light on where the race stands and casting doubt on Harris’ outward show of confidence.
Jen O’Malley Dillion, who is Harris’ campaign chair, shared internals at a leadership retreat. They paint a picture of uncertainty, with the vice president not having “any one sure path to 270 electoral votes.”
At a leadership retreat for top aides in Wilmington last week, Jen O’Malley Dillon – the campaign chair hired by Joe Biden and retained by Kamala Harris – ticked through the battleground states and warned them: the vice president still did not have any one sure path to 270 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate. North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.
In my reading of the race, I’ve long maintained that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Are there technically other paths to 270 for both candidates? Sure, but the likelihood that Harris loses Pennslyvania but wins Georgia, for example, isn’t high. Likewise, Trump is very unlikely to win Michigan if he can’t carry Pennsylvania. The fact that Harris is looking “rough” in the all-important state is big news for Republicans.
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Continuing through the list, North Carolina is a state that always seems close but seems to end up in the GOP column. Arizona and Georgia are leaning toward Trump, and they have been all cycle. On the other hand, Michigan is a state that has trended progressively bluer over the last two elections, and regardless of the polling, Harris is favored there.
Keep in mind that all of the aforementioned data revealed came from before the debate. So do Harris’ handlers believe the game has now changed? According to CNN, the answer is no, and even more newsworthy, multiple aides believe that Trump would win if the election were held today.
As pumped as Harris aides are about her debate performance earlier this week, they don’t think it changed any of that.
That makes for a lot of potential paths to victory based on the current and projected internal data, O’Malley Dillon told them last week, but multiple top aides on the Harris campaign told CNN they fear that if the election were held next Tuesday instead of eight Tuesdays from now, Trump still would be in a good position to win.
That news suggests that Trump’s decision to scoff at more debates is the right one. If the game has not changed, why give Harris another chance to change it? The former president’s best bet is to forget about striking a knock-out blow. That’s not going to happen because the country is just too divided. This is now a turnout-based election, and that should be the focus.
