Climate change increased the likelihood of the recent Southern California wildfires by 35%, according to a new study published by World Weather Attribution, a decade-old international group of climate scientists and other experts.
The study comes as Los Angeles residents start to rebuild their lives in the wake of catastrophic fires that erupted earlier this month. The fires were sparked by near perfect conditions: The two preceding years were unusually wet, boosting the growth of wildfire-adapted vegetation. This year, climate change dealt the region two heavy blows: a delayed annual rainy season and intense Santa Ana winds that fanned the flames and spread embers far and wide.
These extreme weather conditions will be more common, according to the study, adding fresh urgency to a burgeoning group of climate adaptation startups that hope to blunt the impact of wildfires.
The extreme weather conditions are now likely to occur once every 17 years. “Compared to a 1.3˚ C cooler climate this is an increase in likelihood of about 35%,” the study’s authors wrote. “This trend is however not linear,” they added, stating that the frequency of fire-prone years has been increasing rapidly in recent years.
Southern California is no stranger to fire. Its ecosystems have evolved to handle — and even thrive — under regular, low-intensity wildfires. But over a century of fire suppression disrupted the natural regime, and in its absence, people have built deeper into fire-adapted ecosystems.
Today, these areas are known as the wildland-urban interface, or WUI, and the density of housing there complicates the picture. Because the landscape has been carved up into smaller parcels, removing excess vegetation often falls on individual homeowners, who may not realize they’re responsible for the task.
Elsewhere, it’s often best to introduce prescribed burning, in which land managers start low-intensity fires during weather conditions that make the low-intensity blaze easy to contain and direct. The process helps rebalance the ecosystem and prevent dry brush from building up. But even in places where prescribed burning is possible, it’s still difficult to introduce, requiring public buy-in and well-trained crews.
Startups have stepped into the void. Vibrant Planet has developed a platform that helps utilities and land managers analyze a range of data to determine where wildfire risk is highest. Then, it helps them work with a range of stakeholders, including landowners, conservation organizations, and indigenous groups, to develop plans to mitigate the risk.
Once plans are in place, other startups step in to do the dirty work. One company, Kodama, retrofits forestry equipment for remote operation, allowing forests to be thinned at lower costs, reducing the fuel load that can lead to catastrophic wildfire.
Another, BurnBot, has developed a remotely operated machine that does the work of a prescribed burn in the relative safety of its metal shroud. There, propane torches burn vegetation as it slides under the machine. Fans on top of the machine keep air flowing into the burn chamber, raising the fire’s temperature to reduce smoke and embers. At the rear of the machine, rollers and water misters extinguish any flames or embers that remain on the ground.
But even with vegetation management and prescribed burning, the climate and ecosystems of Southern California won’t be completely wildfire free. To further minimize the risk of catastrophic fires, another slate of startups is working to spot wildfires soon after they ignite so crews can respond quickly.
Pano, for example, uses AI to crunch a range of data sources, including cameras, satellite imagery, field sensors, and emergency alerts, to automatically detect new fires. Google is also in the game, having worked with Muon Space to launch FireSat, which can image wildfires from orbit every 20 minutes.
And should wildfires escape early detection and containment, other startups like FireDome are developing tools to protect homes and businesses. The Israel-based startup has created an AI-assisted fire defense system that launches projectiles filed with fire retardants. The automated system can lay down a perimeter of retardant before fire reaches a property or, if embers are already flying, it can target hotspots to extinguish flames before they turn into conflagrations.
Land owners and managers will have to get smarter about how to limit their risk. There’s unlikely to be a single solution, but rather a combination of advanced technology and old fashioned land management.
