HONG KONG — China’s exports rose a less-than-expected 2.3% in January and February from a year earlier while imports fell more than 8% in a slow start to a year dogged by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and other policies.
Economists had forecast that exports would rise 5% year-on-year and that imports would edge higher. China’s overall trade surplus grew to $170.52 billion in the first two months of the year.
China’s customs agency typically publishes combined trade data for January and February to avoid any distortion from slowdowns during the week-long Lunar New Year holidays.
“Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had anticipated,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.
“This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from tariffs, which will almost certainly lead to sharp falls in shipments to the U.S. before long,” he said.
Evans-Pritchard said that the slowdown in imports suggests that the pick up in demand driven by government stimulus spending late last year has “already partially reversed.”
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump’s second of two 10% hikes in tariffs on imports from China took effect and that is likely to hurt Chinese exports in coming months.
To a certain extent, buyers and Chinese suppliers had rushed to beat those increases in import duties.
Chinese officials have slammed the tariff increases but also expressed confidence that the economy is resilient and that trade with other countries can help compensate for any declines in exports to the U.S. after the tariffs took effect. They have also said they are open to talks on a mutually respectful basis.
Last year, exports helped China attain its target economic growth rate of 5%. The government again has set the target for around 5%, despite uncertainties over the outlook for trade this year.
Exports to the U.S. grew 2.3% in annual terms in January-February, while shipments to the European Union and Japan grew just 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. Exports to Russia fell 10.9%.
The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) remained China’s biggest trading partner, with shipments growing 5.7% year-on-year.
“While we don’t read too much into a few months of data, the breakdown does pose questions about how export trends might look once tariffs start to drag on the U.S., too,” Lynn Song of ING Economics said in a report.
“With tariffs coming into effect in February and March, it’s likely that the impact will be seen gradually in the coming months,” she said.
