Through his first four NFL seasons, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert excelled against man coverage.
From 2020 to ’23, Herbert ranked eighth among 41 qualified quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback when facing man coverage, according to TruMedia. He had two matchup advantages in receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — when they were healthy, of course — and Herbert leaned into that duo against man looks. And because of Herbert’s success in those situations, opposing defenses did not play a lot of man against him. He saw man coverage on 28.4 percent of offensive plays, the 15th-highest rate among those qualified QBs.
Allen and Williams are gone this season. And while second-round pick Ladd McConkey has emerged as a star in his rookie year, Herbert has been far less effective against man coverage. He enters Week 14 ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback against man coverage among 34 qualified quarterbacks, according to TruMedia. Herbert is averaging -0.06 EPA per dropback against man. He has never finished a season below 0.11 EPA per dropback against man. Through 13 weeks, Herbert trails quarterbacks like Bryce Young, Drake Maye and Daniel Jones in EPA per dropback against man.
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The Chargers are seeing more man coverage. Do they have the receivers to overcome it?
