The Champions League round of 16 second legs are here, and with it, the promise of high-stakes and intriguing betting opportunities.
Some teams are clinging to narrow leads, others are on the brink of history, and a few hope to avoid embarrassment (looking at you, PSV). Let’s break down Wednesday’s matchups, the best value plays, and which odds offer the most potential.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
“Matches like this are always in the balance,” Carlo Ancelotti warned after Real Madrid edged Atlético 2-1 in the first leg last week — and he’s right.
Atleti’s home record against Madrid in the Champions League? Two wins, one draw. Their defiant attitude? Unshaken. “This isn’t over by any means,” declared Brahim Díaz, the match-winner at the Bernabéu.
With a quarterfinal spot at stake, both Madrid giants enter the second leg in top form. Los Blancos have won 16 of their last 21 matches, while Atleti have tasted defeat just twice in their previous 27 outings (with 21 wins). It’s unfortunate one of these elite squads will bow out this early, but that’s the price of a blockbuster draw.
Rodrygo was a difference-maker in the first leg, blitzing Los Colchoneros’ defence with clinical finishing. For Atleti, Julián Álvarez continues to show why he’s a game-changer; his first-half strike last week kept the tie alive.
Atleti to qualify sits at 245/100, while Real Madrid are heavily favoured at 1/3. In terms of the match result, Real Madrid go through with a win or a draw, while Diego Simeone’s side need a one-goal victory to force extra time, and two to advance outright.
Bookmakers expect a goal fest, and the lines reflect it: Over three goals is 15/14, over 3.5 goals is at 37/20, over four at 3/1 and over 4.5 at 9/2.
Goalscorer odds reinforce the same idea. Kylian Mbappé (33/20), Álvarez (43/20), Vinícius Júnior (12/5), Antoine Griezmann (12/5) and Endrick (12/5) are all heavily backed to score. If you’re looking for first goalscorer value, Mbappé at 5/1 or Álvarez at 6/1 could be worth a punt.
For a more creative bet build, consider this combination: over 1.5 first-half goals plus 3.5 total goals plus both teams to score at 3/1. If this turns into an end-to-end slugfest, that line could be golden.
The bet: Over 1.5 first-half goals plus over 3.5 total goals plus both teams to score at 3/1
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Lille vs Dortmund
On one end of the tightrope, we have Lille – a surprising contender of the revamped Champions League format. They’ve already shown they can punch above their weight, shocking Real Madrid (1-0) and destroying Feyenoord with a ruthless six-goal display. On the other end are Borussia Dortmund – battle-tested and unshaken by big nights in France. Last season, they squeezed past PSG with a gritty 1-0 win to book a spot in the final. That experience could prove invaluable in what promises to be a tense contest.
As the only round of 16 tie still deadlocked, the equation is simple: win, and you’re through. But which team will seize the moment – Lille, riding a wave of momentum, or Dortmund, wielding European pedigree?
BVB could lean on Emre Can’s disciplined first-leg display, with 11 ball recoveries and nine line-breaking passes. Up top, Serhou Guirassy remains a threat with 54 goals in 64 club games over the past year. Lille can’t afford to give the competition’s top scorer a yard of space, and the bookmakers agree, pricing his odds as the first goalscorer at 11/2 and 39/20 in the anytime scorer market.
The hosts, however, have their own weapon. Enter, stage-right, Jonathan David. The Canadian striker assisted Lille’s equalizer in the first leg and has six goals in nine UCL games this campaign. The 25-year-old’s blistering 32.46 km/h top speed and sharp link-up play make him a constant threat. If the odds are any indicator, he’s primed to strike: 5/1 first goalscorer and 17/10 in the anytime goalscorer market.
Given the razor-thin margins, it might be wiser to back goalscorers instead of an outright winner. Or, if you’re feeling bold, try this for value: both teams to score and David 2-plus shots on target and Guirassy 2+ shots on target at 10/1.
The bet: Both teams to score and David: 2-plus shots on target plus Guirassy: 2-plus shots on target at 10/1
Aston Villa vs Club Brugge
Aston Villa may not have controlled the first leg in Bruges, but they were clinical – they had less possession than FCB but made their chances count.
A 3-1 win on the road gives them a sizable advantage as they return to Villa Park, one step closer to a historic quarter-final berth. That victory was Villa’s first UEFA competition win against a Belgian club since 1982 when they beat Anderlecht on their way to European Cup glory. Could this be a good omen?
Brugge, however, could argue they were the better team last week. They outshot Villa 11 to seven but were undone by a Brandon Mechele own-goal and a Marco Asensio penalty. Now, they need a two-goal win to force extra time or three to advance outright – no easy task, especially away from home.
Villa can afford to win, draw, or even lose by a goal and still go through. But don’t expect them to sit back – especially with an in-form Morgan Rogers. The first-leg man of the match delivered the cross that led to Villa’s crucial second goal. The UEFA Technical Observer summed it up best: “He came alive after the break, played in multiple positions, adjusted well, and looked to get on the ball.” It’s no surprise he’s 5/2 to score anytime.
Brugge’s bright spot is Maxim De Cuyper. The fullback scored their lone goal in the first leg – his first in the competition – and put in a shift with nine ball recoveries and four interceptions. He’ll need to be at his best to keep Villa’s attack quiet.
The bookmakers expect action. Over 1.5 goals is a near-certainty at 2/9, and over 2.5 at 13/20 will also deliver value. But if you’re expecting a controlled Villa performance rather than a shootout, over two goals at 1/4 offers a safer entry point.
For those backing a Villa win but expecting Brugge to get on the scoresheet, Villa and both teams to score at 9/4 is worth considering. Ollie Watkins leads the first goalscorer market at 7/2, while Marcus Rashford is a longer 6/1.
The bet: Villa win plus both teams to score at 9/4, or Rogers anytime at 5/2
Arsenal vs PSV
To say Arsenal have a commanding lead would be an understatement. Their 7-1 demolition job in Eindhoven was ruthless and historic. The Gunners’ seven-goal masterclass was the largest-ever away win in a Champions League knockout match. And to put the mountain PSV face into perspective, no team has ever overturned more than a two-goal away deficit, let alone six.
For a team that struggled to find the net before this tie, Arsenal’s efficiency was staggering. Martin Ødegaard ran the show with two goals, an assist, and a press that suffocated PSV’s midfield. Jurriën Timber got in on the act, too, scoring his first UCL goal and shutting down Noa Lang in one-on-one duels.
So, what’s the angle for the second leg?
Leandro Trossard could be a focal point. He’s 5/1 to score first, 39/20 anytime, and if you’re feeling adventurous, 10/1 to bag a brace or 50/1 for a hat-trick. Arsenal have a litany of goalscoring candidates at their disposal, with Ødegaard (7/1), Mikel Merino (6/1), Nathan Butler-Oyedeji (6/1), and Raheem Sterling (6/1) all in the mix. Safe to say, the bookmakers expect the Gunners to strike first.
While an Arsenal win is expected, the correct score markets tell an interesting story. A comfortable but measured 2-0 is at 11/2, a more cautious 1-0 at 6/1, while PSV nicking one in a 2-1 Arsenal win is 15/2. The odds are saying to expect a less active scoreline this time, but don’t expect Mikel Arteta’s side to take it easy. Player shots on target also give insight into the Gunners’ approach. Trossard’s over 0.5 shots on target is a safe 3/5, indicating he could be the talisman on Wednesday.
Overall, Arsenal are through barring an act of footballing absurdity. But if you’re looking for value, Trossard’s anytime scorer odds or the markets around a scoring bout for the hosts might be the play.
The bet: Trossard anytime scorer at 39/20 or Arsenal 2-0 correct score at 11/2
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(Photo of Brahim Diaz: Getty Images / Ion Alcoba)
