Everyone loves an underdog story. but what if, in that narrative, the David of the David vs Goliath epic was Manchester City — the team that has dominated the world’s richest league for the past half-decade?
Pep Guardiola’s long history of financial spoils and ventures will make it hard to sell this argument, but they aren’t the only club in next week’s Champions League knockout round well-positioned to provide underdog betting value. Four months ago, you would not have expected the Citizens to even feature in an article of this scope. Nor would you say the same about a Real Madrid side, who are the bookmaker’s favourites to advance despite being ravaged by injuries.
So, can the reigning European champions add to Manchester’s malaise, or will PSV Eindhoven, Club Brugge, or Stade Brest offer a better wagering option? Let’s look at the numbers.
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Man City vs Real Madrid
Man City’s odds to qualify: 11/10
Real Madrid’s odds to qualify: 10/13
We had to spice it up with some intrigue in the introduction, but yes, Man City do seem to have some betting value in Tuesday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium. Los Blancos head into this two-legged tie missing Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger and now David Alaba in the centre of their defence. Then, of course, Dani Carvajal is absent with a knee injury. Aurélien Tchouaméni, one of the world’s best No 6’s, has been moonlighting as a centre-back to get his teammates through this crisis.
The biggest red flag to discolour for Carlo Ancelotti is the team’s performances against Europe’s top teams. In seven matches against six clubs currently in the top 20 of the ClubElo Rankings — Liverpool, Barcelona (twice), Atlético Madrid, Lille, AC Milan and Atalanta (who they also played in the UEFA Super Cup), the titling Spanish giants have won once, drawn once, and lost five.
Before rushing to your favourite sportsbook, it warrants a mention that Man City’s attempts to rebuild the squad in the January transfer window have been lacklustre.
Their big, Rodri-shaped hole was somewhat filled by the signing of 23-year-old midfielder Nicolás González from FC Porto. González isn’t Rodri — who is? — but his fresh legs in an old, tired midfield should be a big boost for Guardiola’s Premier League ambitions. Due to UEFA’s registration rules, González won’t be eligible for the knockout rounds.
On top of that, Omar Marmoush — the addition everyone raved about — hasn’t lit the world on fire in his first 144 minutes in the league. Thankfully, Madrid’s style of play shouldn’t put them at risk for the same turnover-prone performance we saw against Arsenal last weekend. It all adds up to a two-leg battle that seems like a coin flip — if the Citizens are getting plus odds, it makes them worth a long look.
Monaco vs Benfica
Monaco’s odds to qualify: 11/10
Benfica’s odds to qualify: 4/5
The DAVIES database is an ambitious metric designed to account for a single player’s overall value on and off the ball in their domestic league minutes. If you’re looking for Benfica’s top player per DAVIES, it’s 36-year-old Ángel Di María. Even more concerning for the Portuguese side is that he’s not the only veteran leading the statistics. Enter stage-right, Nicolás Otamendi. Leaning on two fading Argentinian stars hardly seems like a recipe for success.
Putting money on Monaco becomes even more appetizing when considering they’re second in Ligue 1 in expected goal differential (xGD) per 90. Combined with most of Les Rouge et Blanc’s major contributors being on the right side of the age curve, betting a plus number on the French club to advance makes all the more sense. Don’t go wild with a parlay though; the odds may seem favourable, but it’s a dicey proposition.
PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus
PSV’s odds to qualify: 29/20
Juventus’ odds to qualify: 5/8
Juventus having to bring in a striker on loan (Randal Kolo Muani) who ranks in the 42nd percentile of xG per 90 tells you everything you need to know about their stuttering attack. Unfortunately, Eindhoven allowed the highest non-penalty xG of any side in the Champions League that advanced to the knockout rounds. The Dutch club also gave up the equivalent of three goals in chances during their group-stage match against the Bianconeri, resulting in a 3-1 defeat. There’s definitely a parallel universe where the Dutch underdog advances with their Italian opponent falling flat on their face, but PSV’s current odds are not worth it.
Sporting Lisbon vs Borussia Dortmund
Lisbon’s odds to qualify: 6/5
Dortmund’s odds to qualify: 4/5
Neither of these clubs are inspiring much confidence at the moment. Ruben Amorim’s defection to Manchester at the start of November set Sporting adrift, as they are on his second replacement already. On top of that, sought-after striker Viktor Gyökeres, who tops the DAVIES rankings in the Primeira Liga, now has a mysterious knee injury. Dortmund are a little unlucky to be 11th in the Bundesliga based on their underlying performance. Still, the former German giants are just not a good side and electric youngster Jamie Gittens — one of their bright sparks — is in fiery form, netting seven goals off just 2.6 xG. Some players can cheat xG, but unless Gittens is a Lionel Messi-level finisher, he will cool off soon.
That said, investing in Sporting right now wouldn’t feel right. Even against an underwhelming Dortmund side, these odds should be more in the 3/1 range to have much value.
Feyenoord vs AC Milan
Feyenoord’s odds to qualify: 15/8
Milan’s odds to qualify: 5/11
Santiago Giménez is Feyenoord’s leading talisman this season, with 12 goals across all competitions. Unfortunately, he now plays for AC Milan. Acquiring your knockout-round opponent’s best player is not a bad strategy. It’s best to lean on the odds and fade Feyenoord.
Club Brugge vs Atalanta
Brugge’s odds to qualify: 3/1
Atalanta’s odds to qualify: 1/3
This isn’t your father’s (or more slightly older brother’s) Club Brugge, who made a run to the knockout rounds in the 2022-23 Champions League campaign. Gone from that side are impactful youngsters like Noa Lang (PSV Eindhoven) and Tajon Buchanan (Villareal via Inter). Andreas Skov Olsen has followed their lead and left for Wolfsburg this past transfer window.
That said, Atalanta’s fearsome attacking style seems to be based on unsustainable finishing metrics in regards to all three of their core attackers: Ademola Lookman (14 goals from 10.4 xG), Charles De Ketelaere (11 from 6.2 xG) and Mateo Retegui (19 from 14.4 xG). The 3/1 odds aren’t all that appealing, but there’s a chance finishing variance strikes Atalanta at the wrong time and Brugge gets by.
Stade Brest vs Paris Saint-Germain
Brest’s odds to qualify: 9/1
PSG’s odds to qualify: 1/7
A recent global study showed that red cards appear in roughly one of every four games. While they offer a significant advantage to the team whose opponent receives one, I’m still not sure Brest (or the underdog following them below) would benefit enough to sneak past PSG over two legs. With the addition of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and the form of Ousmane Dembélé, Brest’s 9/1 odds aren’t tempting enough, but PSG’s 14/1 odds to win the Champions League? Now, there is something to consider.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich
Celtic’s odds to qualify: 10/1
Bayern’s odds to qualify: 1/10
With all due respect to German football fans, the Bundesliga is not exactly lighting things on fire this year. Bayern boss the league now that Bayer Leverkusen have taken a step back, Dortmund have imploded and no other side seems better than above average. That said, Celtic dominating the Scottish Premiership has earned them 55th in the ClubElo ratings — two spots behind a Mainz team with a negative xG differential in Bayern’s underwhelming domestic league. Oh, and Celtic’s key striker, 30-year-old Kyōgo Furuhashi, now plays for Rennes.
Anything can happen in a single match, but this Celtic team beating Bayern across two legs seems like a much bigger longshot bet than 10/1 — even if Bayern see red.
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(Photo of Vinicius: Angel Martinez / Getty Images)
