Second legs of the Champions League knockout phase, attempt one, and it’s all on the line. Let’s have a look at this Tuesday’s four fixtures and the most lucrative markets to wager on…
Feyenoord vs AC Milan
Milan aren’t coming across as a trustworthy club this season, so it might be a good idea to forego wagering on their 7/10 odds of qualifying.
If you’re looking for evidence of their topsy-turvy nature, the I Rossoneri’s past two results will provide some insight: a tetchy 1-0 loss in the first leg against Feyenoord and a verbatim scoreline against Serie A side Hellas Verona.
Other concerns warrant a mention here, chiefly the ratio between chances created this term against a predicted scoring conversion – otherwise known as Expected Goals (xG).
Last Wednesday, despite going down a goal in the third minute against their Dutch foe, Sérgio Conceição’s men barely outshot their opponent (12 to 11) while creating roughly the same calibre of chances (0.6 to 0.5 expected goals).
In their 1-0 victory against Verona, Milan had to wait until the 75th minute before their efforts to break the deadlock proved fruitful. The result? 2.18 xG – despite Rafeal Leão and Christian Pulisic coming off the bench.
Leão is averaging 2.59 total shots and 1.24 shots-on-target (SoT) across all competitions. It stands to reason that with his team needing to come from behind, the Brazilian will try to take as many shots as possible when the opportunities arise.
The Bet: Rafael Leão over 1.5 Shots-On-Target at 23/10
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Atalanta vs Club Brugge
Atalanta’s attacking ace Ademola Lookman looks set to return for the second-leg as yet another Italian club seeks to overturn a first-leg deficit.
The 27-year-old makes Atalanta’s 5/6 odds to advance rather appealing. Yet, while bettors might be tempted to jump onto that punt, better value could be found elsewhere.
In five of their nine Champions League matches, Club Brugge have failed to generate more than 1.0 xG worth of chances. Strip away the two penalties they’ve been awarded and FCB’s non-penalty xG per 90 minutes in the competition sits at a measley 0.85. In short, Nick Hayen does not have an overtly potent attack to delve into.
If the bettors feel inspired to do so, combining the above predictions with a clean sheet could boost the chances of a potentially handsome payout.
The Bet: Atalanta to win + Both Teams to Score “No” at 9/5
Bayern Munich vs Celtic
The scoreline may suggest that Celtic have a chance to advance, but their are tiny cracks in their 16/1 odds to qualify. Looking back at last week’s first-leg offers a perfect example of how the statistics can be misleading. especially where xG is concerned.
Bayern’s 2-1 victory was undermined by their hosts winning the xG battle 1/37 to 0.70. Punters less-savvy with their statistical knowledge might’ve gleaned that Brendan Rodger’s men were unlucky to not come away with a draw.
Dig a little deeper, however, and you’ll see that over half of Celtic’s chance creation came from a single shot attempt: Daizen Maeda’s 79th-minute goal, the result of a fortunate bounce of the ball that the visitors couldn’t clear in the aftermath of a set-piece.
Creating a shot attempt with a 70 percent chance of going in the back of the net is extremely hard to do; expecting Celtic to do so again against one of the best teams in the world is highly unlikely.
The Bavarians have a wealth of attacking talent to dominate games; this particular showdown could turn into a snooze-fest, and in turn, a smart betting pick.
The Bet: Under 3.5 Total Goals at 59/50
Benfica vs Monaco
Last week’s red-card-infused 1-0 victory over Monaco means the odds are in the Reds’ favour.
The Portuguese club are marked as favorites to advance over their European rivals at 7/8 odds. Their opponents, however, will still consider themselves able to turn the tide, especially with Breel Embolo in tow.
Despite his side down a man for more than 34 minutes in the first leg, the Swiss striker managed to let loose three shots, and was constantly disrupting Monaco’s back line. Elsewhere, however, the underlying numbers aren’t convincing. Embolo has only netted five times across all competitions, underperforming his total season xG of 10.9.
Rewards come with risk, and vice versa; in this case, putting a few quid – euros, dollars? – on his anytime scorer odds, especially when his side are in desperate need for attacking cavalry, could be apt.
The Bet: Breel Embolo Anytime Goalscorer at 3/1
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(Photo of Harry Kane: Getty Images / Ian MacNicol)
