The best teams at generating quality looks at five-on-five this season are currently competing in the Stanley Cup Final, and all four teams that appeared in the conference finals generated five-on-five shots at an above-average clip.
While the Vancouver Canucks finished the season as a top-10 offensive team by goals scored, they struggled to generate shots relative to the NHL’s top teams. They were reliant on historic shooting efficiency to drive above-average offensive results.
In the second half of the year, when Vancouver’s shooting percentage cooled off, the Canucks’ ability to generate offence began to look stagnant. That mostly held in the postseason too, even if Stuart Skinner’s struggles and Vancouver’s clutch performances at six-on-five helped hide it.
None of this should be seen as a hot take, nor is it a secret. This is a team that regularly played Ilya Mikheyev, Phil Di Giuseppe and Sam Lafferty in its top six this past season. That relied on Pius Suter in a top-line role throughout the playoffs. That itself prioritized adding another creative winger to the lineup ahead of the trade deadline, kicking the tires on Jake Guentzel, Tyler Toffoli and Jason Zucker, among others, with an eye toward enhancing its attacking ability ahead of the postseason.
And adding another top-six forward into the mix will be one of the key tasks for Canucks hockey operations again this summer.
“A top-six winger would be nice,” conceded GM Patrik Allvin at the club’s garbage bag day last month.
There are some intriguing names available on the unrestricted free-agent market that could help punch up Vancouver’s ability to generate scoring chances. Here are nine UFA targets that could add a dose of dynamism to Vancouver’s offensive attack.
GO DEEPER
Nine unrestricted free agents the Canucks could target to bolster their speed
Jake Guentzel, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Guentzel would be a home-run acquisition for the Canucks. It’s not just that Guentzel is an excellent top-six winger — he’s an elite player, period. The 29-year-old left winger consistently scores 35-40 goals and ranks top 15 among all NHL players in goals since the 2018-19 season. He’s one of the most clutch playoff performers ever, ranking top 10 all-time in playoff goals per game.
Guentzel’s successful run with the Hurricanes proved he isn’t just a product of Sidney Crosby. He scored 12 goals and 34 points in 28 games with Carolina between the regular season and playoffs. Guentzel can score in so many different ways — he has a dangerous shot off the rush, can lurk as the trigger man on the cycle, is a master at finding open ice around the blue paint and tenaciously fights for tips and deflections around the slot, despite being a touch undersized.
He has elite hockey IQ, which would make him a seamless fit with Elias Pettersson. And he brings more to the table than just scoring as he wins battles along the boards, is smart positionally and trustworthy defensively.
Guentzel will command a mammoth contract on July 1, with Evolving Hockey projecting a $9.6 million AAV contract over seven years. It’s a deal that he can live up to as colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating model projects Guentzel will provide $9.9 million per year of value over the next seven seasons.
Guentzel may be one-of-one on the unrestricted free-agent market this summer, but Jonathan Marchessault isn’t too far behind. He’s also a bona fide star-level talent in his own right, and would give Vancouver’s even-strength attack a massive boost.
The 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy winner plays and carries himself with a chip on his shoulder and plays far bigger than his listed height and weight. He’s also one of the league’s most effective goal scorers.
Over the past three seasons, Marchessault ranks among the top 30 NHL forwards by both goal and shot rate at five-on-five. In fact, his even-strength goal rate is better than Guentzel’s and is tied with the likes of William Nylander.
Marchessault is 33 years old and could be on the back nine of his effectiveness, although he showed no signs of slippage with a career-high 42-goal campaign this past season.
Should the Canucks explore a reunion with Toffoli? He was a perfect fit with Vancouver as a rental in 2019-20. Toffoli’s off-puck intelligence to get open in scoring areas, seamless fit on the Canucks’ first-unit power play and two-way reliability gave the club’s top six a major jolt.
Toffoli, now 32 years old, is still scoring at a high level. He notched 34 goals and 73 points in a top-line role with the Calgary Flames in 2022-23. Traded to New Jersey in the summer, he was an excellent fit with Jack Hughes, scoring 33 goals when you tack on the seven goals in 18 games he added in Winnipeg after being dealt as a rental. You can count on him to reliably score 30 goals.
The concern with Toffoli is the term he may be seeking on his next contract. That was reportedly the sticking point between him and the Devils working out an extension prior to the trade deadline. Given his age, it’d likely be risky for Vancouver to commit more than three years of term at a $6 million or higher cap hit. Don’t forget Toffoli has already won a Stanley Cup and was underpaid on his last contract because he signed during the 2020 COVID-19 offseason — he’s got a strong incentive to chase the bag.
The savvy two-way sniper would be a great on-ice fit but the Canucks need to be careful if it turns into a bidding war.
Tyler Toffoli scored 33 goals last season and could be a great on-ice fit back in Vancouver. (James Carey Lauder / USA Today)
In a relatively low-event environment, Teuvo Teravainen, 29, has become one of the NHL’s most consistent 50-to-60-point top-six forwards of the past decade.
In addition to playing the sort of mature two-way game that would ensure he’d earn ice time from Canucks coach Rick Tocchet, the skilled Finnish-born winger is an excellent playmaker and a solid enough finisher to offer a legitimate threat with his one-timer on the power play. It’s easy to imagine how his overall hockey IQ could complement Pettersson on the wing.
The drawback to a potential Teravainen fit is that, in truth, he’s far more dangerous on the power play than he is at five-on-five. In fact, even as he’s put together multiple 20-goal and 50-point campaigns, Teravainen has only produced five-on-five offence at a middle-six clip over the past three seasons.
The Canucks also need help on the power play and Teravainen’s intelligence and versatility — and his left-handed shot in the bumper spot — could absolutely make him additive to the first power-play unit — like a Vancouver answer to what the Edmonton Oilers get from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins five-on-four.
That would be helpful in the extreme, but what the Canucks need more than anything in a top-six forward is a winger who can add a dimension to their even-strength attack. While Teravainen is an exceptional talent, that’s not where he’s most likely to provide significant value.
Anthony Mantha enjoyed a healthy, bounce-back contract year campaign for the Washington Capitals and Golden Knights this past season, scoring 23 goals and 44 points. He was, however, ultimately a healthy scratch for Vegas in four of seven games in the first round of the playoffs.
Standing 6-foot-5, 235 pounds and blessed with blinding speed, Mantha has the raw ability to be a dynamic attacking threat. However, he’s battled both inconsistency — the real type of inconsistency, not the shooting percentage-driven type — and a spate of injuries throughout his career, limiting his overall impact.
Given the inconsistency of his impact, the gaps in his two-way game and his lengthy injury history, Mantha would be a big dice roll on a rich contract with any type of term. If the value is there, however, or if he falls through the July 1 cracks, Mantha could be a fascinating high-reward bet for the Canucks to place this summer.
With lightning-quick speed and oodles of offensive talent, Anthony Duclair is a flashy, exciting scorer. He can burn teams in transition and has experience meshing with elite centers — he played arguably his best hockey in Florida alongside Aleksander Barkov and went on an eight-goal, 15-points-in-17-games heater down the stretch playing on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov after being dealt to Tampa at the trade deadline.
Duclair wouldn’t be a slam-dunk stylistic fit in Vancouver. He’s a mixed bag defensively, isn’t heavy along the walls and does a lot of his best offensive work off the rush, whereas the Canucks generate most of their chances from the cycle or forecheck.
He could clock in at a bargain price, however, given that he missed most of the 2022-23 campaign with injury, didn’t light it up in San Jose this season and had a quiet playoff run with Tampa. At a discounted price, Duclair could be an intriguing upside bet.
Jake DeBrusk doesn’t have the star-level upside the Canucks are ideally looking for, but he checks a lot of other boxes as a top-six winger. He’s fast, has a good shot, drives strong defensive results and has some bite to his game. He’s also 27, which makes him a younger free agent.
DeBrusk scored 25 goals in 2021-22 and 27 goals in 64 games during 2022-23. He dropped down to 19 goals and 40 points this season, but he played through a broken hand down the stretch which explains why his second-half production fell off a cliff. His hand was fully healed by the playoffs and he went off with a team-leading five goals and 11 points in 13 games. DeBrusk also played a large role on Boston’s stellar penalty kill, an example of how he’s become more well-rounded over the years.
There’s a lot to like about DeBrusk as a complementary top-six winger.
You can make a compelling case both for and against Zucker.
The good is that he’s speedy, tenacious and disruptive on the forecheck and can pot 20 goals if things break right. He’s only a year removed from an excellent 2022-23 season on Evgeni Malkin’s line where he drove play and scored 27 goals.
On the other hand, Zucker is injury-prone, produced a modest 14 goals and 32 points in 69 games this season and is 32 years old. Asking Zucker to be a full-time top-six winger on a contender might be a tough ask at this stage in his career. The more reasonable bet might be expecting him to contribute on the third line and provide an occasional spark further up the lineup.
Zucker could end up being priced fairly for that role — AFP Analytics projects him to sign a two-year deal at around a $3.7 million AAV.
Michael Amadio’s value is derived from the ability he regularly demonstrated in Vegas over the past two years: to slot in just about anywhere in an NHL-level lineup without taking anything off the table.
The 28-year-old isn’t a standalone offensive driver — his five-on-five scoring rate over the past three seasons is more middle six than top six — nor is he a standalone play driver. He’s the definition of a useful complementary piece; a plug-and-play contributor who can be inserted just about anywhere while permitting his star-level linemates to be effective.
Put him on a checking line and he’s solid enough defensively to hold up. Put him with a high-end scorer and he’s dangerous enough offensively to do his part and contribute without squandering chances by the bucketful the way some of Vancouver’s current roster of complementary wingers do.
Amadio might not be the sexy name in unrestricted free agency, and he’s probably not an everyday top-six option. He’s more in the mould of a Pius Suter type, albeit with less defensive acumen and more scoring touch; the definition of a useful glue guy.
(Top photo of Jason Zucker skating with the puck against Ian Cole: Brett Carlsen / Getty Images)
