If Wrexham are to rewrite history this season and complete an incredible rise from non-League to the Championship inside just three years, it seems they will have to buck the recent trend of possession being the key to success.
As happened again in Saturday’s dramatic 2-2 draw at Charlton Athletic, a major trait of the Welsh club’s return to League One after 19 years away is how they are prospering despite the opposition seeing much more of the ball.
At The Valley, the hosts’ share of possession stood at 55.4 per cent, according to Opta. But for a contentious stoppage-time penalty awarded by substitute referee Alan Dale for handball against Max Cleworth — “Is he (Dale) up to the job? Clearly not because there was only one big decision to get right and he got it wrong,” says Wrexham manager Phil Parkinson — the visitors would still have left with a deserved three points.
Just as they had in earlier wins over fancied opposition such as Peterborough United, Rotherham United and Reading, the Welsh club spent less than a third of the game on the ball and yet were full value for victory.
It was a similar story when eking out a goalless draw at Bolton Wanderers in August, with the hosts enjoying a whopping 67.6 per cent share of the ball.
In an era when so much emphasis is put on the need to retain possession at all costs, Wrexham’s 25 points from 13 games despite going into this weekend with just a 42.8 per cent share of the ball stands out, especially as it is way below most of their promotion-chasing peers.
Retaining the ball was key to succeeding in League One last season, with all the top six in the division boasting possession figures of 51.4 per cent or higher. Peterborough (61.8 per cent) and Bolton Wanderers (58.9 per cent) led the way, just ahead of champions Portsmouth (58.4 per cent).
Look further back and only four teams have won promotion from the third tier over the past decade with a possession percentage below 50 per cent. And three of those were marginal — Hull (49 per cent) and Blackpool (49.7 per cent) in 2021 and Rotherham (49.9 per cent) in 2022 — to leave only Wycombe in 2019-20 anywhere near Wrexham’s current figure, when Gareth Ainsworth’s side spent just 41.2 per cent of games on the ball.
Wrexham, however, are happy with their approach, as George Dobson — outstanding on his return to The Valley in central midfield — makes clear.
“There’s more than one way to win a game of football,” he tells The Athletic. “Everyone is obsessed with possession-based football nowadays, but we are comfortable with what we do. We have a real good understanding of how we play, we’re good at it and we’re effective. Long may that continue.”
Wrexham’s low possession figure can be partly explained by their relatively direct style of play, as shown below.
As was again evident at The Valley, Parkinson’s side do get the ball down, often looking to get Elliot Lee on the ball and then spreading play to the flanks for the wing-backs, Ryan Barnett and James McClean.But there’s also a tendency to go long, especially among their three centre-halves, in an attempt to turn the opposition. Such a ploy works in terms of getting up the pitch to play in opposition territory, albeit at the risk of coughing up possession cheaply from time to time.
Another factor is the relative lack of a pressing game by Wrexham compared with their peers, as underlined by a look at the passes per defensive action (PPDA) metric. The lower the PPDA, the more intense the press — with Birmingham again leading the way.
Wrexham, in contrast, had the least intense pressing game in League One going into the weekend, just behind Northampton Town and Peterborough United.
This points towards a team happy happy to let the opposition play, knowing they have the ability to hit them hard and fast when the opportunity arises.
Wrexham have certainly proved adept at that this season, thanks to boasting an array of good passers such as Dobson, as well as having a team so well drilled they know where a team-mate will be even without looking up.
There was a prime example of Parkinson’s side in full flight during first-half stoppage time at Charlton, as Tom O’Connor drilled a 30-yard pass over halfway to the feet of Paul Mullin. A quick exchange of passes with Ollie Palmer and the ball was on its way to Ryan Barnett on the right, where a first-time cross found McClean, but he could not take advantage.
Such quick play explains why only Peterborough United, with 16 shots from counter-attacks, had performed significantly better than Wrexham on the break this season going into the weekend.
An ability to break swiftly despite not being overly blessed with pace is testament to the team’s passing ability. This, together with Dobson’s control in midfield and an eye for an opening that saw Lee crash a first-half shot against the Charlton crossbar, helps explain why Wrexham are not as reliant on retaining possession as the rest.
Another factor is the considerable threat posed at set pieces. Lee may not have been credited with direct assists for his corners against Crawley and Wycombe that led to Cleworth finding the net due to others getting a touch in the meantime, but his delivery was key.
Likewise, O’Connor with his wickedly in-swinging corners that had already led to goals for Cleworth (Peterborough), Jack Marriott (Birmingham) and Lee (Crawley) before the weekend.
He went one better at The Valley, his 16th-minute free kick hit with such venom that home goalkeeper Will Mannion could only bundle the ball over the line.
Being a reactive side — as opposed to, say, Birmingham, who try to press and probe the opposition into submission each weekend — certainly isn’t holding Wrexham back.
Not only do Parkinson’s side sit third in the table heading into November, but they also boast the fourth-highest tally of goals in the division with 21 — and just 10 conceded, the second lowest in the division.
Maybe Wrexham really can defy those who insist possession being nine-tenths of the law applies in football, with only that play-offs winning Wycombe team under Ainsworth in the last 10 years having gone up with time on the ball anywhere near as low as the Welsh club is managing now.
(Top photo: Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
