We are right in the thick of the draft season, and as situations change, so do ADPs. My first round of “My Guys” that dropped in July was led by some more prominent names than you’ll see in this edition. I’ve had my eye on some of these following players all preseason. Some I’ve recently come around to based on their cost in drafts. But they all have one thing in common: solid value and viable paths to exceed their ADP.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels, WAS
Although Caleb Williams has superior weapons and a higher long-term ceiling, Daniels is the first rookie quarterback I’m taking in 2024. Currently going somewhere in the QB13-17 range, Daniels offers a lovely combination of floor and upside thanks to his rushing prowess — he ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season at LSU. Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury runs an offense that utilizes a lot of play-action and down-the-field throws, two strengths of Daniels’s game.
In 1QB leagues, I tend to wait on quarterback and draft two late — a “safe” option (think Jared Goff) paired with a high upside play. Daniels is the upside play I want this year. In SuperFlex, he’s the perfect target for your second quarterback. Washington fields one of the worst defenses in the NFL and will be playing from behind a lot. I’m not concerned about the trade of Jahan Dotson affecting Daniels’ value. Take advantage of the discount if it pushes his ADP even further down.
Jayden Daniels’ best plays through 2️⃣ preseason games 🔥@JayD__5 | @Commanders pic.twitter.com/Ur9R1aG1AC
— NFL (@NFL) August 21, 2024
Running Back
Najee Harris, PIT
Despite the unoriginal play-calling and an offensive line that couldn’t run-block a pack of wild toddlers, Harris rushed for his third straight 1,000-yard season and a career-best eight rushing touchdowns in 2023. Harris was better on the ground than you think. He averaged a career-best 4.1 yards per carry and had the second most broken tackles (30) in the NFL last season. While Arthur Smith is a terrible head coach, he’s succeeded as an offensive coordinator, especially with the ground game. With him going off the board in the mid-20s at running back, the Harris hate has officially gone too far. Harris could also see the lion’s share of touches early in the season, with backfield mate Jaylen Warren suffering a hamstring injury in Week 2 of the preseason. Give me Harris, who’s finished as a top 15 back in PPR leagues in two of his three seasons, over the guys going in that range (Zamir White, Raheem Mostert, and Tony Pollard, to name a few).
Brian Robinson Jr., WAS
Before you bring up new teammate Austin Ekeler’s potential as the third-down back: 1.) Ekeler is washed (a great guy, though), and 2.) Brian Robinson Jr. was the better pass-catching back last season. Robinson’s 11.4 yards after the catch per reception, 10.2 yards per reception, and 8.5 yards per target were all tops in the league. Only two running backs had 100 or more receiving yards in a single game last season. Both were named Robinson: Brian and Bijan. Robinson had 19 rushes of 10-plus yards, including two that went for touchdowns. He bested Ekeler in just about every way imaginable last season. It’s rare to find a running back with a three-down skill-set going outside the top 30 backs, but that’s the case with Robinson. He’s a solid RB2 with upside at a flex price point.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf, SEA
It seems like nobody cares that DK Metcalf is primed for a potential top 10 season after finally escaping the clutches of Pete Carroll’s outdated run-first offense. Metcalf averaged 79 catches, 130 targets, 1,108 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns over the past four years, good for 14.1 PPR points per game. Seattle was the only team in the NFL last season to run fewer than 1,000 plays. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will surely right that wrong, even if his offense isn’t quite as pass-happy as the one he ran at the University of Washington. Metcalf had the sixth-highest yards per reception with 16.9 and was in the top 10 in deep targets (26) and red zone targets. He’s being drafted at his absolute floor as a back-end WR2 and still has top 10 potential. No risk, all reward. Who doesn’t want to draft a player who learned sign language just to trash-talk without getting flagged?
DK and the Seahawks get on the board first
📺: #SEAvsLAR on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jckqnJwdb2 pic.twitter.com/byYXgLpJl2— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023
Romeo Doubs, GB
Green Bay’s wide receiver corps may lack a true alpha, but they make up for it by having an array of capable pass-catchers. The problem for fantasy managers is deciding who the right guy to target is. If you want to get a piece of the Packers offense for cheap, Doubs is your guy. He’s currently being drafted outside the top 50 wide receivers despite being tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions (eight), targets per game (just under six), and end zone targets (15). There’s zero risk and nothing but upside where Doubs is being drafted. I’ll gladly take him before Tyler Lockett, Courtland Sutton, and Curtis Samuel, among others going in that range.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson, DAL
Despite ranking first among tight ends in red zone targets and second in the targets pecking order in Dallas, Ferguson is being drafted outside the top 10 tight ends, behind the likes of David Njoku, Brock Bowers, and Dallas Goedert in some cases. He saw six or more targets in 11 games in 2023, including six straight to end the season. He’s also the forgotten man in the CeeDee Lamb contract negotiations. While I don’t think Lamb misses any games, it’s becoming more and more plausible with each passing day. If he did, Ferguson would feast on targets. He’s an easy draft at his ADP and a near lock to finish as a TE1.
(Top photo of Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY)
