ATLANTA — The Braves needed the All-Star break to “decompress,” as first baseman Matt Olson put it, following a turbulent first 3 1/2 months in which their pitching met or surpassed all expectations but the offense lurched and sputtered, far different than a year ago when overwhelming power-hitting was their greatest asset.
Most of the lineup linchpins from last year are still there, with the notable exceptions of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuńa Jr., who sustained a season-ending knee injury in late May, and center fielder Michael Harris II, who’s missed a month with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and could be out at least another two or three weeks.
It’s because in-their-prime hitters including Olson, the 2023 MLB home run and RBIs leader, third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy all have hit and slugged at much lower rates than last season and throughout their careers, that the Braves are confident a second-half correction is coming.
Keep in mind that the Braves had a majors-leading 3.63 ERA at the All-Star break in 2023, and a majors-leading 3.40 ERA this season at the break, in a year when hitting stats are down across baseball.
Matt Olson has a .309 on-base percentage with 13 home runs and 109 strikeouts in 398 plate appearances. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
The major difference for the Braves, who were 31 games over .500 at the break a year ago and just 11 over .500 this season, is an offense that ranks in the middle of the pack in most categories, including 14th in OPS (.709), 23rd in OBP (.304) and 17th in runs per game (4.28).
The Braves will need better offense, along with continued stellar pitching from their top starters and deep bullpen, to have any chance of reeling in the powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies, who hold an 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East standings over the six-time defending division champion Braves.
Trade deadline need: Corner outfielder
The Braves have used Adam Duvall as their primary right fielder since Acuña tore up his knee May 26, and in the last seven games before the break Atlanta had as its corner outfielders Duvall, hitting .192 with a .585 OPS, and Eddie Rosario, hitting .180 with a .536 OPS. Double yikes.
Even with Harris likely returning by early August, at which point Jarred Kelenic will move back to a corner, the Braves still have a glaring need for a bat, either to replace or serve in a platoon with Duvall, who has an .863 OPS vs. lefties and an anemic .421 OPS vs. righties.
Given that Acuña, Harris and Kelenic are signed for multiple years and presumably will be the regular outfield, the Braves will likely look for an outfielder on an expiring contract, who won’t cost multiple top prospects or add considerably to payroll, since Atlanta is in luxury-tax land again already.
Among potential candidates: Cody Bellinger of the Cubs, Tommy Pham of the White Sox and Jesse Winker of the Nationals, although with the Nationals six games out of the final wild-card spot, it’s uncertain if they would trade Winker to the Braves, a division rival Washington has beaten in six of eight games. The Braves might also consider a run at Oakland’s Brent Rooker if they want an outfielder/DH under control for three more seasons.
Rosario, who hit .183 with a .555 OPS for the Nationals before getting released two weeks ago, has hit .160 with a .360 OPS in 26 plate appearances for the Braves since they signed him off the scrap heap.
Schwellenbach’s progress changes outlook at deadline
The Braves still would like to add a back-of-rotation starter before the deadline, preferably one with contractual control beyond this season since it’s uncertain if pending free agent Max Fried or 40-year-old Charlie Morton will be back, or if Spencer Strider, after a second major elbow surgery, will be ready early next season.
However, the impressive performance of rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has lessened the urgency to add a starter at the deadline. Despite just 186 1/3 innings pitched above the high-school level including 110 innings in the minors, Schwellenbach has looked poised and confident since making his big-league debut.
Ian Anderson also has had encouraging results in four rehab starts (2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) as he makes his way back after missing 1 1/2 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, and hard-throwing AJ Smith-Shawver is building arm strength and stamina after missing time for a strained oblique.
But the revelation has been Schwellenbach, who in the past six of eight MLB starts has a 3.34 ERA with 32 strikeouts, seven walks and two homers in 35 innings. In his last two starts before the break, in front of sellout crowds against the Phillies and at San Diego, he gave up two runs and had nine strikeouts with one walk in 13 innings.
It will be interesting to see how Schwellenbach pitches in the second half, especially when he faces opponents for a second time. But the stuff is legit, the six-pitch repertoire impressive, and the maturity and mound presence are outstanding, as is the former Nebraska shortstop’s ability to field his position.
Keeping the pitching staff healthy
The big three in the rotation, All-Stars Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Fried, are the main reason for Atlanta’s majors-leading ERA, which includes a 2.94 bullpen ERA that’s second in MLB and leads the NL. That those three starters consistently pitch deep into games has also aided the relievers.
Atlanta has its deepest bullpen in years, and the Braves’ 309 bullpen innings are the fourth-fewest in the majors. That’s a combination that team officials hope will allow the Braves to avoid the sort of fatigue that affected some key relievers down the stretch or in the postseason during the past two years.
The depth and sensible workload have allowed the Braves to give more rest to the bullpen, and not hesitate to put relievers on the 15-day injured list rather than try to pitch through discomfort.
The situation underscores the importance of keeping Sale, López and Fried healthy the rest of the way, which the Braves believe they were able to do before the All-Star break in part because of extra rest provided for starters most of the time. It’s a strategy designed to protect Sale, after five injury-plagued seasons, and López, who pitched exclusively as a reliever the past two seasons and had not totaled more than 66 innings since 2019.
López is the majors’ ERA leader at 1.88 in 17 starts. Sale (13-3) leads MLB in wins, has the second-lowest ERA among NL qualifiers (2.70), and has an 11.5 strikeout rate per nine innings that’s even higher than his robust 11.1 career rate.
But López already is at 95 2/3 innings, and Sale’s 110 innings are the most he’s pitched since 2019. And that’s with them pitching on regular (four days’) rest just twice apiece, and at least five days in all other starts, including six or more days of rest for Sale in six starts and López in eight starts.
That will change after the All-Star break when the Braves plan to use starters on regular rest more frequently. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the workload and whether they can go as deep in games and stay off the IL.
Fried also has only two starts on regular rest, but most of his have come on five days’ rest, with only four starts on six or more days. He prefers to pitch on regular rest and looks forward to the busy stretch after the break when the Braves plan to use their starters on regular rest more frequently.
(Top of Spencer Schwellenbach: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
