A few years ago, I wrote a chapter on Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) for a college textbook. Last summer I met virtually with students studying Decision Making in Sports. Yesterday I had the opportunity to give a guest lecture on cognitive bias with a Q&A session for a college course in Fantasy Sports. I don’t know about you, but it blows my mind that you can learn about fantasy sports in college these days. As big as our industry is, there is still a ton of room for growth and education, I guess.
The great thing about our game is that no matter how much you know, learn and study it, there’s still edges to gain. With bye weeks starting up and unprecedented injuries derailing the best-laid fantasy plans, your roster might look pretty bleak this week. Pick up Bucky Irving, they say… as if he wasn’t drafted in most competitive 12-team leagues. It also feels like trade offers aren’t going anywhere, because managers with healthy players are clinging to them with everything they have.
In order to move forward effectively, it’s time to do a thorough, emotionless evaluation of your roster. Do you need to win now? You can’t start Patrick Mahomes this weekend. And try to trade Christian McCaffrey to a 4-0 team that can afford to send you a player or two to help you over the next four weeks. Plan your Week 5 waiver moves for juicy matchups two or three weeks from now, especially if they line up with tough bye weeks for you. Check out who’s been dropped by other desperate teams in this regard. There’s always something you can do to press your edge. I’m going back to my usual format for this article but will try to include advice for teams that are coasting vs. those that are in desperation mode.
Don’t Overthink…
Justin Fields, QB, PIT vs. Dallas
Turns out that the Dallas defense is not all it was cracked up to be this season. The Cowboys are in the bottom five in points allowed and offensive touchdowns allowed this season. They’re in the bottom third in passing yards allowed and rank 11th in DvP (fantasy points allowed) to QBs and third to RBs. That’s obviously relevant here because Fields has racked up his fantasy points on the ground and through the air this season, especially in the past two weeks, where he has vaulted up the standings to be QB6. I’d start Fields over Mahomes or Dak Prescott this week — feel free to ask in the comments if you have a different tough decision at QB.
Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ vs. Minnesota (London)
I’m really trying to overthink this play, but I just can’t bench Wilson this week. Regardless of the status of my bench, Minnesota is a premier matchup for wide receivers and the Jets are coming off an uncharacteristic dud of a performance. Yes, this offense is not what many hoped or believed it would be so far, and Aaron Rodgers clearly isn’t 100 percent healthy, but both are better than what they showed in the driving rain vs. Denver in Week 4. Wilson is getting this one last chance from me.
Cole Kmet, TE, CHI vs. Carolina
Anyone vs. Carolina, amiright? Expect to see D’Andre Swift’s start percentage skyrocket this week in the great matchup — I don’t disagree — but don’t forget about Kmet if you need TE help. He’s actually been the TE4 this season thanks mostly to a wild Week 3 performance against Indianapolis. What’s the commonality? Bad pass defense. Carolina gives up the second-most passing touchdowns and ranks sixth in DvP to TEs. Kmet has been damn near perfect with a 90 percent catch rate, and I don’t know what it means exactly, but Caleb Williams’ passing accuracy when throwing to Kmet (90 percent) is a lot higher than it is for Rome Odunze (52 percent), DJ Moore (72 percent) or DeAndre Carter (58 percent).
Tinker With…
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, GB at LA Rams
Not only because of the Christian Watson injury, whereafter Wicks earned 13 targets, catching five, including two for touchdowns, Wicks could be the right guy to shake up a stagnant lineup this week. He is tied with Jayden Reed at the top of the Packers’ receiver room with 22 targets and leads them all with three touchdowns. But most enticing of all is Wicks’ matchup with the Rams, who allow the second most yards per game, points per game, and are tied with the Packers for third-most passing touchdowns allowed. This is going to be a shootout, folks. Don’t be shy about tinkering with any Rams or Packers pass catchers this weekend.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC vs. Indianapolis
Obviously, it depends on your options, but if you’ve been relying on Jalen Hurts or Jared Goff, you might need a QB fill-in. While Lawrence has been awful — I’m a Lawrence manager in a SuperFlex league — I still think he’ll have a few good games this season and Week 5 should be one of them. It’s hard to go 0-5 with this much talent on offense, but even if Indianapolis does pull out another miracle victory (potentially without Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson), Lawrence can still be a fantasy asset. The Colts have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, while ranking in the league’s Top 10 in passing touchdowns, completions and passing yards allowed.
Dare Ogunbowale, RB, HOU vs. Buffalo
No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Bills, and they are now facing four games without Von Miller. Vegas expects a high-scoring and close game here, making most Bills and Texans automatic fantasy starters on a short week. Even if Joe Mixon is back, I don’t hate Ogunbowale as a desperation flex play in full PPR leagues. His usage has increased to where he enjoyed a 19 percent target per route run rate and played 40 percent of snaps in Week 4. His value is in the passing game, where he is a perfect 9-for-9 for 98 yards and a touchdown this season. I fully expect C.J. Stroud to continue to look for him on long third downs and/or near the goal line in this one.
(Top photo of Justin Fields: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
