The Edmonton Oilers are getting old in a hurry at some important roster spots.
On July 1, the club added several impressive forwards who are proven, older and likely to take most of the playing time on the top three lines. That left Dylan Holloway, the youngest roster forward, in a likely utility role for next season.
Edmonton did little on defence, but in allowing Vincent Desharnais to exit via free agency, room was made for emerging youngster Philip Broberg.
The expectation for both men was they’d play key roles on a Stanley Cup contender in Edmonton.
That all changed Tuesday with dual offer sheets from the St. Louis Blues.
Holloway and Broberg could be on a new team by this time next week, and the Oilers are officially in a spot of bother. How bad is it?
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What’s the problem?
Dual offer sheets at this time of the year are rare and onerous for any NHL team to absorb.
This is both a talent issue and a math problem. There are limited options and the falloff in talent, should the organization choose to set both players free, could be enormous.
Broberg and Holloway are two young players who will be productive in key roles at value prices this coming season, with only the location in question.
Quoting the Blues press release, “the offer to Broberg is for a two-year contract at $4,580,917 per year, the maximum offer that would require a second-round draft pick as compensation” and “offer to Holloway is for a two-year contract at $2,290,457 per year, the maximum offer that would require a third-round draft pick as compensation.”
The Oilers are already over the cap (via PuckPedia) and matching both of these offer sheets would put them $7.225 million over the cap. Even with Evander Kane ($5.125 million AAV) on LTIR, the organization would have to move on from another roster player.
The Oilers have a few choices to make over the next week.
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What’s the solution?
The team could match one or both offer sheets, then deal a player like Cody Ceci and bank on Kane’s long-term absence from the 2024-25 season.
That works for as long as Kane is on LTIR.
If Kane goes on LTIR, that saves $5.125 million. Send down Corey Perry ($1.15 million), Josh Brown ($1 million) plus Derek Ryan ($900,000) and the organization can comply with the cap number on opening night.
The problem? Edmonton would start the season with 19 players: two goalies, seven defencemen and 10 forwards.
That isn’t enough to be competitive (Edmonton would have one forward available instead of three for the fourth line).
If the club trades Ceci ($3.25 million) with no money coming back, this roster (Kane on LTIR) would be cap-compliant with all of the elements required to ice a competitive team.
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
|---|---|---|
|
Jeff Skinner |
Connor McDavid |
Zach Hyman |
|
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
Leon Draisaitl |
Viktor Arvidsson |
|
Dylan Holloway |
Adam Henrique |
Connor Brown |
|
Mattias Janmark |
Derek Ryan |
Corey Perry |
| Left Defence | Goalies | Right Defence |
|---|---|---|
|
Mattias Ekholm |
Stuart Skinner |
Evan Bouchard |
|
Darnell Nurse |
Calvin Pickard |
Philip Broberg |
|
Brett Kulak |
Troy Stecher |
|
|
Josh Brown |
This roster comes in with over $1 million to spare, meaning the team could carry an extra forward (Lane Pederson, $775,000) and start the year with 22 rostered players.
Losing Ceci and replacing him with a combination of Joshua Brown and Troy Stecher is less than ideal, and the organization may not want to start the season in this manner.
When Kane is ready to come back (estimates range from 12+ weeks to much of the season), the Oilers would either have to make another move or send another player to LTIR.
The compromise solution
The Oilers need to keep Broberg on the roster in order to improve year over year. His offer sheet is more expensive for a reason. Edmonton has to match the offer sheet on the defenceman.
Holloway, a valuable player in his own right, could be sacrificed and replaced internally. The quality of the roster would be reduced but not completely compromised.
If new general manager Stan Bowman matches Broberg and allows Holloway to become a member of the Blues, things can fall into place more reasonably.
The roster would see minimal change. Mattias Janmark would slide up to No. 3 left wing, Pederson could slide in at No. 4 centre and the coaching staff would have to decide which of the extra defenders (Brown or Stecher) would land in Bakersfield.
Ceci would stay on the roster, giving the Oilers a veteran first and third pairing, with Broberg alongside Nurse on the second pair.
It is the compromise that makes the most sense.
Bottom line
Edmonton’s management has a week to decide, and much can happen in that time.
Things to look for include a trade of Ceci (a strong option), the signing of a RH defenceman for depth (Gustav Lindstrom is a worthy target) and management talking up young winger Matthew Savoie (who could eventually become a replacement for Holloway).
Kane’s injury
The club will have to decide on the offer sheets before any kind of certainty on the Kane injury.
That brings all kinds of scenarios (including a Ceci trade) into play unless the Oilers decide to decline picking up the new contracts of Holloway and Broberg.
Why did this happen?
Many fans lashed out on social media in the hours after the offer sheet was made public. Several criticized the big free-agent signings on July 1, while management waited on the younger RFAs until the offer sheet option was used.
It’s an understandable reaction, but this is the Oilers’ business model. Edmonton management has used control of young players as a hammer for many years.
It is a poor model.
Consider the following:
• Leon Draisaitl was sent back to junior just before he would have qualified for a full season in 2014-15, but it did not have the desired effect. His agent (Mike Liut) used Draisaitl’s splendid 2017 playoff run as a hammer, delivering a handsome deal for his client.
• Darnell Nurse’s contracts were always on the lowest possible end, with two bridge deals taking him right to free agency. Fans see Nurse’s current deal (a huge contract with a no-movement clause) as being on the player, but history recalls two managers (Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland) put off the issue until the player held all the cards.
• Incredibly, the identical situation is currently playing out with impact defenceman Evan Bouchard. Expect howls of rage when his next contract is negotiated, but the real issue is constantly avoiding paying full price until the player holds all the cards.
Broberg and Holloway also spent time waiting in line, with Broberg’s frustrations boiling over last fall (as reported by The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman).
The Oilers were caught unaware because offer sheets are rare, and dual offer sheets happen just once in a very blue moon.
One could argue that despite obvious exposure (exacerbated by a rambunctious free-agent frenzy that resulted in gleeful fans on July 1) it was reasonable for management to expect that no offer sheet was coming.
It’s hard to find an Oilers fan in a charitable mood regarding these decisions.
In fairness, since Jeff Jackson arrived as CEO in the summer of 2023, the organization has been impressive in player procurement.
Tuesday was a reckoning. All of those quality additions may come at a price.
The new general manager’s first challenge is a major one — or more accurately, his two first challenges. Can Bowman keep his two young skaters, save the roster and emerge with an intact lineup for 2024-25?
We wait.
(Photo of Philip Broberg: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
