If you’re St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong, wouldn’t it be great if you could draw up how you wanted the next week to play out and it all came to fruition?
Usually, that’s not how it works.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t live in fantasyland and write the script of what a perfect week would look like for the Blues at the NHL Draft and in free agency.
I have to put some limits on the assignment.
As good as projected No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini would look in the Blue Note, the San Jose Sharks aren’t moving the top selection for (insert multi-piece package of players and picks here).
Similarly, please refrain from any chatter about the Blues signing pending unrestricted free agents such as the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Steven Stamkos or the Florida Panthers’ Sam Reinhart, or trading for the Ottawa Senators’ Brady Tkachuk.
Let’s be as realistic as possible while allowing a few breaks to bounce the Blues’ way.
I’ve chosen one development via the draft, a UFA signing, a re-signing and a trade.
The draft
The draft is Friday and Saturday and the Blues have nine picks, including No. 16 overall. That is the definition of the muddy middle, and while there are some talented players this year, I got a kick out of what Armstrong said at his recent roundtable discussion with reporters.
“When you pick No. 10, there’s nine great guys. When you pick No. 16, there’s 15 great guys,” he said.
Translation: There’s a slight drop-off right around where the Blues are scheduled to be on the board at No. 16. If the team stands pat and keeps the pick, it may need a little luck with a player falling to them.
Many fans might like it if the Blues could move into the top 10 and come away with one of the top-end defensemen, such as the London Knights’ Sam Dickinson, the Saginaw Spirits’ Zayne Parekh, the University of Denver’s Zeev Buium or the Calgary Hitmen’s Carter Yakemchuk.
Parekh, who colleague Scott Wheeler recently profiled at The Athletic, could be a great fit. The 6-foot, 178-pound right-shot defenseman netted 33 goals and 96 points in 66 games in the Ontario Hockey League last season.
In his latest mock draft, Wheeler has Parekh projected as going to the Ottawa Senators at No. 7 overall, Buium to the Seattle Kraken at No. 8 and Yakemchuk to Buffalo at No. 11.
The New Jersey Devils (No. 10) have said publicly that they’d consider trading back, but that may not be high enough for the Blues to get one of those three defensemen, not to mention the cost may be too much for them to stomach.
Since Armstrong referred to the situation as a likely “selection” draft, meaning the Blues expect to be picking in their current spot, let’s focus on who they’d be happy walking away with at No. 16.
They’ve repeatedly said they’ll take the best player available, and typically that’s a forward who may slip in the draft. A year ago, they were six spots higher at No. 10, and while few mock drafts had center Dalibor Dvorsky still available, he was and they pounced.
This year, albeit with a potentially lower ceiling, that group includes the Spokane Chiefs’ Berkly Catton, HIFK’s Konsta Helenius and the U.S. national team’s Cole Eiserman.
But with several centers and wingers in the Blues’ prospect pool, I’m going to identify a pair of defensemen worthy of watching: Valerenga’s Stian Solberg and HC Pilzen’s Adam Jiricek.
They have different traits that make them successful, but both have size — Solberg is 6-2 and Jiricek 6-3 — and top-four potential. Solberg (left shot) plays with physicality and Jiricek (right shot) can skate and move the puck well.
It’s possible that one, or both, are off the board at No. 16, but seemingly the Blues would be in a spot to draft a forward that drops to them, or one of them would be available. If not, perhaps they can trade up a couple of spots, which wouldn’t be as costly as jumping into the top 10.
Perfect week: Yakemchuk falls to the Blues at No. 16. If he’s gone and Catton has also been scooped up, then either Solberg or Jiricek are still available.
Will Carter Yakemchuk fall to the Blues at No. 16 in the 2024 NHL Draft? (Dale Preston / Getty Images)
The free-agent signing
Free agency begins Monday, two days after the draft.
By most accounts, the Blues’ offseason wish list should include a No. 2 center and a top-four defenseman. That may not be doable, but if the club wants to be competitive and have a chance to make the playoffs, Armstrong has to be exploring at the very least.
The Blues’ GM was recently asked about the need for a No. 2 center.
“We’ve had internal conversations,” Armstrong said. “(Pavel Buchnevich) can play that for us without any issue. We’ve talked to him about it. He understands the value of him as a centerman. He also understands the value of him as a winger. That’s an option.”
It’s not a bad option, but it’s not a great option.
Buchnevich, who has shown a propensity to pass the puck more than shoot it, can create from the middle of the ice, and he’s a strong two-way player. But there are other aspects of the position — including faceoffs, where he won just 37.4 percent of his draws last season — that still need some work.
Another option is Dvorsky, 19.
“I think Dvorsky is going to come in and we’re going to see,” Armstrong said. “He’s going to get an opportunity to make our team. Now whether (Dvorsky and other young prospects) seize that opportunity, I can’t control that. But we’re not going to exclude them because of age.”
I’ve been wondering about the realistic chances that Dvorsky could handle the role, so I asked both Wheeler and Corey Pronman and their responses appeared in a recent article. In a nutshell, the two didn’t think he looked NHL-ready in junior hockey last season and, needing more pace in his game, would be surprised if he spent some time in the American Hockey League this year.
So if not Buchnevich, and if not Dvorsky, then who?
What about Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson?
I realize this is a long shot. Stephenson is a pending UFA, and if he hits the market, he’ll get a lot of attention. According to Evolving-Hockey, his next contract projects to be a four-year deal with a $6.13 million average annual value, which may be too rich for the Blues’ blood. Plus, he’s 30 years old (turning 31 in April), so he’s not exactly in their target age group.
But here’s why it makes sense to me:
• Stephenson doesn’t score a lot of goals (16 in each of the past two seasons), but he’s a clear upgrade. He’s had 50-plus points each of the last three seasons, and he has a career 52.6 winning percentage on faceoffs.
• He’s a winner with two Stanley Cups (Vegas Golden Knights in 2023 and Washington Capitals in 2018). He’s played in 95 playoff games and has 15 goals and 39 points.
• His presence could take some pressure off Dvorsky, and allow the Blues to keep both Buchnevich on captain Brayden Schenn on the wing. Then when Dvorsky is ready, Stephenson can play the wing himself.
Perfect week: On Monday, the first day of free agency, Stephenson signs a four-year, $24 million ($6 million AAV) free-agent contract with the Blues. There will be better and younger centers than him available in the market, but perhaps none who could fill the team’s need and fit into its timeline and budget as well.
The re-signing
There are two sides to the Buchnevich contract debate, and I get both sides.
As our Blues fan survey highlighted in May, half of the fan base wants to re-sign Buchnevich, who has one more season left on his contract, and the other half wants the team to walk away from a potential eight-year extension that could take him to age 37.
When Armstrong was addressing Buchnevich’s contract situation last week, I’m not sure how many people caught this, but I got a chuckle out of it: “We have to provide him information where he wants to be between 30 and mid-30s, whatever that term is.”
Armstrong did qualify the comment by adding “whatever that term is,” but it seems obvious that the Blues would love to re-sign Buchnevich to a term that’s in the neighborhood of five years and not eight.
The Blues’ roster is loaded with long-term contracts that include no-trade clauses, which a Buchnevich deal would also require. They likely don’t want to add another, especially with GM-in-waiting Alexander Steen taking over after the 2025-26 season and wanting some financial flexibility early in his tenure.
Again, I get both sides.
Buchnevich is an important player on this team and keeping him in the fold for the next few years would be beneficial. But it would seem that recent history has provided management with enough evidence about aging players to not do the same thing all over again with Buchnevich.
Perfect week: On the same day that Stephenson signs with the Blues, Buchnevich surprises everyone by agreeing to a five-year, $40.6 million ($8.125 million AAV) extension. The club didn’t want his AAV to surpass that of Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, so they gave him a few more bucks and matched their AAV.
The trade
The Blues need a new look on defense, and when it comes down to it, trading Torey Krug is the move that accomplishes the most. Is this the summer, or even the week, in which it happens?
As I’ve written in the past, Krug had every right to invoke his no-trade clause when the Blues attempted to send him to the Philadelphia Flyers last year. However, it showed the team’s cards about the decision that had been made internally. So why would this summer be any different in terms of who they want to move?
Krug, 33, works hard, but his defensive analytical numbers leave a lot to be desired, and the power play, which is supposed to be his bread and butter, left even more to be desired.
The Blues don’t want to move Colton Parayko or Nick Leddy, and while it was a disappointing year for Justin Faulk, the hope is that giving his high-ankle sprain time to heal this offseason can cure some of his issues.
This brings us back to Krug, who has three more seasons left on his original seven-year, $45.5 million contract and a full no-trade clause that becomes a modified NTC (15-team no-trade list) the summer before the 2025-26 season. If there’s a deal that would entice him to waive his NTC, the Blues may have to give up a future asset to help finalize the deal. The goal may not even be improving next year’s roster, just simply moving on from Krug and his salary.
Unless a defenseman was in the return for Krug, the Blues would be down to six: Parayko, Leddy, Faulk, Matt Kessel, Tyler Tucker and Scott Perunovich, who recently signed a one-year contract extension. Armstrong then might have to explore a potential trade or free-agent signing, likely looking for a veteran to offset the inexperience of Kessel, Tucker and Perunovich.
One option on The Athletic’s trade big board is the Ottawa Senators’ Jakob Chychrun. In the UFA market, former Blues defenseman Joel Edmundson, who spent the end of this season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, could be available.
Perfect week: In a transaction that was inevitable since last summer, the Blues package Krug with a prospect or a draft pick to an unknown destination for a limited return.
(Top photo of Chandler Stephenson and Torey Krug: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)
