The Toronto Blue Jays’ failure to sign first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension should come as no surprise. For the past six years, the Jays have committed one misstep after another in trying to build a long-term relationship with their four-time All-Star.
Guerrero is set to become a free agent at the end of the season after he and the Jays could not reach an agreement before his deadline of Tuesday, the date of the team’s first full-squad workout. While he left open the possibility he will re-sign with Toronto, he would reach the open market entering his age-27 season, at a time when the New York Mets and New York Yankees are among the clubs that might pursue a first baseman.
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters Tuesday that the team “worked very hard” to retain Guerrero. But as club president Mark Shapiro put it, “when it comes to getting a deal done, it’s either done or not done.” Neither executive was willing to disclose specifics of the negotiations.
The Jays, under previous GM Alex Anthopoulos, signed Guerrero out of the Dominican Republic at age 16. Their next step, if they fall out of contention, could be to trade him at the deadline. More likely, they will lose him in free agency.
Either outcome would be a harsh blow for a fan base that grew to adore Guerrero as a homegrown star, then watched the Jays miss on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and other top free agents the past two offseasons. But the relationship between Guerrero and the Jays’ current front office rarely has been easy.
The Jays manipulated Guerrero’s service time at the outset of his career, took him to a salary arbitration hearing in 2024 and over the years made him a series of extension offers he deemed insufficient.
Those offers, according to a source briefed on Guerrero’s history with the club, failed to acknowledge shifting dynamics in the market. By reacting more promptly to those dynamics, the Jays likely could have locked up Guerrero years ago for much less than he sought in recent weeks.
GM Ross Atkins, left, has two years left on his contract while club president Mark Shapiro, right, enters the final year of his deal. The pressure on them now increases substantially. (Mark Blinch / Getty Images)
The first relevant comparison for which the Jays had an inadequate response was the 14-year, $340 million extension the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. in February 2021. The most recent, apparently, was the New York Mets’ signing of Juan Soto to a record 15-year, $765 million free-agent deal.
It’s reasonable to assume Guerrero wants 14 years, one less than Soto, who was a year younger entering free agency. The record average annual value for a first baseman is Miguel Cabrera’s $31 million. For Guerrero, a $35 million AAV would produce a total value of $490 million. A $40 million AAV would increase it to $560 million. Crazy numbers, perhaps, for a player with the 6-foot-2, 245-pound Guerrero’s body type. But even at the high end, more than $200 million less than Soto.
The Jays also made an offer to Soto, with a total guarantee of less than $700 million, according to SportsNet. Soto, whose career OPS+ is 60 percent above league average, is a more consistent and accomplished hitter than Guerrero, whose career OPS+ is 37 percent above. And while Guerrero rates as below-average at perhaps the least valuable position on the defensive spectrum, Soto also occupies a less-than-premium spot, and is not a particularly skilled corner outfielder.
The inability of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso to secure a long-term deal with a career OPS+ 34 percent above league average perhaps stands as a warning sign for Guerrero. But Guerrero is a better pure hitter than Alonso and more than four years younger. He is also coming off his second-best offensive season, while Alonso’s past two years represent a decline.
Teams consider age a critical factor when assessing players’ values. From Bryce Harper to Manny Machado to Soto, younger free agents generally strike the most lucrative deals. A 14-year deal for Guerrero would cover his age 27 to 40 seasons. By way of contrast, Aaron Judge’s nine-year contract with the Yankees covers his age 31 to 39 campaigns.
Durability is another factor working in Guerrero’s favor. Like his father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr., Guerrero Jr. has proven a mainstay. Guerrero Sr., in his 14 seasons, appeared in 150 or more games nine times and 140 or more three times. Guerrero Jr. never has been on the injured list. He appeared in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 season, and has averaged 159 games since.
The debate over younger Guerrero’s value likely will continue throughout the 2025 season and into his free agency. The Blue Jays, in retrospect, surely regret not extending him earlier. But the differences in the ways they handled Guerrero and the Padres handled Tatis, starting with their initial promotions to the major leagues, were telling.
The Jays delayed Guerrero’s free agency by one year when they kept him in the minors for the first month of the 2019 season. The Padres took the opposite approach with Tatis. Rather than manipulate his service time, they included him on their Opening Day roster in ‘19, knowing it might result in them losing him after six instead of seven years.
Any concern over Tatis’ potential departure diminished when the Padres signed him to his 14-year deal in 2021. Guerrero, playing for $605,400 that season, just above the league minimum, proceeded to break out, producing career-highs with 48 home runs and an OPS+ 67 percent above league average. At that point, he almost certainly would have accepted a deal similar to Tatis’. But the Jays likely recoiled at the premise.
Tatis’ contract at the time he signed was the third-largest in major-league history. He was a shortstop then, and remains far more athletic than Guerrero. But Guerrero in his four arbitration years ended up earning a combined $70.8 million. If the Jays had matched Tatis, Guerrero effectively would have made $269.2 million over his 10 free-agent years — perhaps hundreds of millions below his ask.
Guerrero regressed in 2022, and rather than sign an extension, settled on a $14.5 million salary in arbitration for ’23. The following year, after another season of regression, the Jays took him to a hearing. The arbitrator ruled in favor of Guerrero’s $19.9 million request over the Jays’ $18.05 million offer. It was the highest salary ever awarded in a hearing.
The Jays did not dare take Guerrero to a hearing again this offseason, seeking to avoid conflict while attempting to sign him to an extension. The parties wound up settling at $28.5 million, giving Guerrero the third-highest salary for an arbitration-eligible player, after Soto at $31 million and Shohei Ohtani at $30 million. But the long-term deal proved elusive.
The failure to complete an agreement with Guerrero leaves the Jays at a crossroads with Shapiro entering the final year of his contract and Atkins having only two years left on his deal. The two inherited Guerrero, whom the Anthopoulos front office signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.9 million in July 2015. Shapiro took over as team president three months later, then brought in Atkins after Anthopoulos rejected a contract extension.
The Jays, using players mostly acquired by Anthopoulos, advanced to the 2016 American League Championship Series in their first season under Shapiro and Atkins. They have not won a playoff game since. Perhaps that will change after an offseason in which they acquired second baseman Andrés Giménez in a trade and signed outfielder Anthony Santander, pitcher Max Scherzer and relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García in free agency. But the team now faces the losses of two homegrown pillars, Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette, who also is entering his walk year.
With Guerrero, at least, it need not have come to this.
(Top photo of Guerrero: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
