ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Fantasy football GMs didn’t learn squat from Joe Brady.
In his first offseason as the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator, Brady is installing the playbook while he imagines the best way to deploy a roster that has lost a superstar but has collected several new ballhandlers.
Brady met with reporters Tuesday for the first time since he was named Ken Dorsey’s permanent replacement. He answered questions about how one of the NFL’s most powerful offenses will adjust, yet provided no insight whatsoever to help forecast who will touch the ball and how much.
Except for the obvious.
“At the end of the day,” Brady said, “this is Josh Allen’s offense.”
It’s only May, for cryin’ outs. Nobody within One Bills Drive can say with certainty what the offense will look like. A team’s identity doesn’t congeal until October, and even then coaches are loath to divulge much about their week-to-week plans.
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So there was almost zero chance Brady would announce exactly how the Bills will handle losing top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, how this mishmash of catchers will be implemented, how much Allen will run, what kind of workload tailback James Cook will get, how often they anticipate two-tight end formations.
“There’s only one guy in the receiver room that’s even caught a ball from Josh in a game,” Brady said. “Every rep in practice, there’s such an intention to what we’re doing and why we’re doing it and trying to get a comfort level and feel for some of those guys.
“Yeah, your offense is Josh Allen’s offense, but it’s also about what your players do well. This is the time right now when we’re experimenting with things. ‘Hey, can this guy do this? Can this guy not do this?’ We’ll continue to evolve so, come September, we’re hoping that we’ll have a good feel.”
Buffalo’s offense shifted when coach Sean McDermott swapped play callers after an erratic 5-5 start made the postseason a mathematical unlikelihood.
In those first 10 games, Dorsey called 58.8 percent pass plays for 68.5 percent worth of the Bills’ total yardage. Allen wasn’t running much. Diggs looked like an all-world receiver.
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Over the Bills’ nine remaining games, counting the postseason, Brady called only 48.4 percent pass plays for 58.6 percent of their yards. Allen ran more. Cook earned a Pro Bowl berth based on performances down the stretch. Diggs evaporated.
“When you’re living in a world where you can only throw the ball or you can only run the ball,” said Brady, “eventually it’s going to run its course. You’ve got to evolve year to year.
“Whatever success we might’ve had last year running the football toward the end, we’re going to have to continue to evolve that. You can’t just pick it up and continue to do the same thing.”
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady says James Cook’s body is now “different in a good way.” (Democrat and Chronicle)
Cook had 302 touches over four seasons at Georgia. Last year, he ran 237 times for 1,122 yards and two touchdowns and caught 44 passes for 445 yards and four TDs. In one fewer game with Brady calling the plays, Cook got 55.7 percent of his season touches.
Cook, listed at 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds, might have trouble withstanding that kind of Brady workload for a full campaign. Brady noted Cook’s body is noticeably “different in a good way” this offseason.
“We’ll see as he’s going with it,” Brady said. “We feel confident in the room that we have that whoever’s playing running back and carrying the football that they’re going to do a damn good job. With regards of setting a certain target number (of touches), I think a lot of that is seeing how his body holds up throughout the season and what he can do.”
Buffalo’s top backup on paper is Ty Johnson, who gained trust and touches as the season unfolded. Dorsey got him one carry with no targets through four games, but Johnson played all but one of Brady’s games, rushing 44 times for 196 yards and catching eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. The Bills also signed journeyman Darrynton Evans, drafted Kentucky’s Ray Davis in the fourth round and signed undrafted rookie Frank Gore Jr. from Southern Miss.
Even more turnover has occurred in the receiver room, where 13.7 percent of last year’s targets remain. All belong to Khalil Shakir.
Brady and Allen must decipher ways to fill that vacuum with newcomers such as Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scandling, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool and KJ Hamler. Second-round draft choice Keon Coleman is expected to contribute this year, but how soon and how much? Sophomore fourth-round pick Justin Shorter missed all season with a hamstring injury.
“We have a lot of newness in that receiver room,” Brady said. “There’s so much good and excitement with it. So I think it’s important for us to not sit there and focus necessarily on, ‘Man, we have to replace this. We have to replace this.’ More so, it’s every season is going to be different.
“The numbers aren’t going to be the exact same. Let’s figure out how we can get our players in the best position to have success.”
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Tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox provide the most stability among the skill positions. Aside from Allen, Kincaid might be the lone fantasy player worth taking early.
Kincaid finished second to Diggs in receptions and targets, setting Bills rookie tight end records with 73 receptions for 673 yards and two TDs. Those numbers should rise with experience and improving his routes against press coverage, an admitted weakness.
Brady was asked his thoughts about putting Kincaid and Knox on the field together.
“We’re going to try to put our best 11 on the football field, and week to week that might change, depending on the matchups,” Brady said, “because you’re not just not necessarily just attacking weaknesses in defense. You’re just trying to find your strengths and attack the weaknesses. Some weeks that might be 12 personnel. Some weeks that might be 22 personnel.
“But we’d love to grow that package and just get them comfortable and putting them in different situations, different spots that they haven’t been in and see how they kind of respond to it.”
In other words, it looks like an entire offense by committee at the moment.
Which is what it’s supposed to be 100 days before the 2024 season kicks off. Which is what a young coordinator is supposed to say about a reimagined roster in the spring. Which is not educational for us outsiders, not one iota.
There’s no way to predict production yet. We don’t know what work is being done at One Bills Drive, what plans are afoot or who will be depended upon to get them closer to their Super Bowl goals.
The best (and only prudent) answer: Everybody.
“Last year, obviously, it wasn’t exactly how we wanted it to end,” Brady said, “but the guys played together, and it’s about understanding that in this offense everyone is going to eat.
“They’ve got to have the mindset: ‘It’s not just about one person. No one’s bigger than the offense, but in order for someone else to have success I’ve got to do my job so they have success and vice versa.’ That’s the biggest thing we’re preaching right now.”
Kaiir Elam says he’d never experienced struggles on the field like he did last season. (Gregory Fisher / USA TODAY Sports)
Can No. 5 avoid short circuit?
Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam has switched his jersey to No. 5 because that is what he’d always worn until he turned pro. While talking to a media scrum Tuesday afternoon, the 2022 first-round draft choice also mentioned he never in his life had struggled at football before Buffalo.
“I ain’t going to lie,” Elam said. “I never been through anything like this.”
So I had to ask how much was that No. 24 to blame.
“It’s a part of it!” Elam said with a laugh.
No, Elam wasn’t accusing his previous jersey of being the reason he has started only five games over his two NFL seasons. But a symbolic reset couldn’t hurt. His boyhood number was unavailable when he joined the Bills because quarterback Matt Barkley was wearing it.
“Five, it’s just like I was born with this number,” Elam said. “I came out of the womb, I swear, this was my number. I wore it probably since I was 4 years old. I wore it in elementary school, middle school, high school, college.
“I just feel it’s the number that chose me.”
He played 13 games as a rookie, starting six, but struggled to earn McDermott’s trust. Elam didn’t get a uniform for three games as a healthy scratch. Last season, he was inactive for seven games, including the first four. He started twice, saw backup duty in one game and was on injured reserve for seven.
“It did eat at me,” Elam said. “I learned to appreciate the struggles because it helped me come into the man I am now. It allowed me to learn. That’s just the reality of it. Sometimes, you can’t really force success. You just have to continue riding that wave, stay consistent and trust and believe in yourself.”
So far, Elam has been among the most disappointing first-round picks in Bills history. He twice has been beaten out by late-round draft picks, seventh-rounder Dane Jackson in 2022 and sixth-rounder Christian Benford last year.
Elam said his work ethic has helped him remain grounded. He also has experienced successes, playing all four possible postseason games and snagging a couple interceptions.
“I work hard,” Elam said “There’s no doubt about it. Nobody would say differently.
“I believe in myself. It’s just a part of life, man. Not everything is going to go your way, but I pride myself on staying resilient and challenging myself to learn from previous mistakes and stay confident in myself to go out there and do a good job.”
(Top photo of Joe Brady: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
