In December 2015, Elon Musk’s SpaceX did something no other organization on Earth — either government-run or corporate — had ever managed to do before: Launch a rocket into orbit and then land it back on solid ground on Earth safely. Nearly a decade later, no other entity has yet managed to duplicate this feat, which is part of the reason it dominates the market for space launches today, and part of the reason SpaceX now has a market cap of more than $210 billion.
But at least three companies aim to try to repeat that achievement soon. The first one to succeed could become the next SpaceX.
Blue Origin
Blue Origin and SpaceX have been feuding since way back in November 2015, when Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos stole Musk’s thunder by landing his New Shepard rocket back on Earth before Musk could land a Falcon 9.
Admittedly, the New Shepard is a suborbital rocket, and Musk had been busy trying to bring his rockets down for controlled landings on boats while Bezos was taking the easy road with touchdowns on land. Even so, Bezos found a way to get Musk’s goat, and the feud between the two space billionaires has been continuous ever since.
Next month, Bezos will attempt to one-up Musk once more when Blue Origin launches its New Glenn rocket on its first-ever flight. New Glenn will carry a Blue Origin space tug (one of the few space vessel types SpaceX hasn’t tried building yet) dubbed Blue Ring to orbit. It will also attempt to land its first stage on a ship at sea, duplicating a feat that only SpaceX has ever accomplished thus far.
If Bezos succeeds, it will mean Blue Origin possesses a more powerful reusable rocket than the Falcon 9. While SpaceX says the Falcon 9 can carry a payload of 22 tons to low Earth orbit, Blue Origin says the New Glenn’s payload capacity is 45 tons.
Rocket Lab
After spending the last three years developing the successor to its Electron small rocket, publicly traded Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) aims to debut its reusable Neutron rocket in a launch in mid-2025.
The Neutron features an innovative design in which the rocket’s reusable first stage encloses an expendable second stage. After its fuel burn, the first stage releases the second stage and the payload, then closes back up in preparation for its own controlled landing (in what some are calling a “Hungry Hippo” design).
As such, Neutron will represent a quantum leap in Rocket Lab’s capabilities. Whereas its Electron rocket’s payload capacity maxes out at around 300 kilograms, Neutron will be able to launch payloads up to 13 metric tons. That’s not quite in the same class as Falcon 9 or New Glenn, but it’s plenty big enough to accommodate most standard satellites, and should also permit Rocket Lab to deploy entire constellations of small satellites for its customers in a single launch.
Rocket Lab, too, will aim to land its new rocket on a barge at sea.
iSpace
And now for the wild card. Over in China, rocket tech start-up iSpace (not to be confused with Japan’s ispace — although I guarantee there’s going to be confusion) announced last week that it had secured $99 million in new funding to further development of its own reusable rocket, the Hyperbola-3.
Smaller than the other two contenders, Hyperbola-3 is expected to have the capacity to boost an 8.5-ton payload into low Earth orbit. Like Falcon 9, New Glenn, and Neutron, it will favor sea landings to reduce the amount of fuel being carried, which will in turn enable it to carry close to its maximum payload.
iSpace aims to conduct its first Hyperbola-3 launch in December 2025, making it last in line among these would-be SpaceX copycats to make the attempt. It’s also arguably the company with the worst outlook for success. Over seven launches to date of its Hyperbola-1 expendable rocket, Payload Research notes that iSpace has notched only four successes.
That’s a batting average of .571 — great for baseball, but significantly worse than Blue Origin’s record with New Shepard, or Rocket Lab’s with Electron.
What it all means to investors
But yes, I’m still saying “there’s a chance” — not just for iSpace, but for all three of these space companies to succeed. And if even one of them does, it will change the dynamics of competition in the space industry.
Rocket reusability, after all, was a key reason why SpaceX has been able to cut the costs of orbital launches, which forced competitors like United Launch Alliance and Arianespace to cut their prices as well. Once Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, or iSpace reaches that technological milestone, SpaceX might feel compelled to cut prices further to compete.
Further, it will add enormous pressure on United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and on Arianespace parent Airbus, to finally design and build reusable rockets of their own.
In a contest between companies that throw away their rockets after each use and companies that save money by reusing them, it’s fairly clear which ones will be able to offer the best prices to their space customers. And those that can’t offer the best prices are probably destined for a turbulent future — along with their investors.
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Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin and Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Billionaire Jeff Bezos Races Rocket Lab and a Chinese Start-Up to Build the Next SpaceX was originally published by The Motley Fool
