An Ohio-based bookmaker once said of the House, “You can win, but you can’t beat them.” Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg and Browns beat writer Zac Jackson accept that slice of wisdom, but they soldier on anyway looking for those small victories.
GREENBERG (2-3 last week, 11-9 overall): So last week, I gave you Penn State and you gave me USC. Where’s the love, man?
It was a meh week for me, overall, but you got back to even with some pretty heady picks. Of course, you also took the Jaguars +5.5. So close.
While they’re not on here, I did go with you on your two NFL unders, both of which ended at the goal line with a chance to go over and a team taking a knee. No better feeling, right?
JACKSON (5-3 last week, 10-10 overall): You stole my lead. You should have stolen my picks, but I was going to underscore how hard this game is by pointing out that I finally had some winners, but I also had Jacksonville.
Don’t get caught speeding, my old bookie used to say. Don’t get caught thinking Doug Pederson will have his team ready, a lot of wise people say.
In theory, more data points should help schlubs like us sort through the long list of games. There should be more hangover games, more look-ahead games and more bad teams spiraling the wrong way. I kind of think the Cowboys shouldn’t be 6-point road favorites against anyone (except Jacksonville), but you don’t HAVE to bet Thursday Night Football.
GREENBERG: What’s the better Thursday night game, Cowboys-Giants or Army-Temple? I’m going with America’s Team, Army -12.5. The Golden Knights are 3-0 for real and against the spread. Let’s make it four. Temple is OK, but the Owls lost to Navy 38-11 earlier this season. Maybe they love America too much?
I’m claiming the Indiana Hoosiers as one of my teams because my wife went there and Kurtis Rourke is their QB. But I’m taking Maryland +7 this week because the Hoosiers are bound to cool off. I still think they win but it’ll be close.
What are you looking at? I’m guessing it’s UMass-Miami or Buffalo-UConn. Those are Zac Jackson kinda games. (With all due respect.)
JACKSON: The Army-Temple total is 45.5. The Minnesota-Michigan total is 35.5. I’ll let you watch both of those games. I’m going to the pool in Vegas looking for people who want to talk about midweek MACtion in November.
As for some winners this Saturday, I’ll take South Florida +5.5 at Tulane. The Bulls are a program on the way up, and they’re back in their weight class after playing Alabama and Miami (Fla.). San Diego State is off a bye and making a very standard trip to Central Michigan. Some are calling Mount Pleasant the San Diego of Michigan, but I’m taking the visiting Aztecs +2.5. SDSU has a new coaching staff and new systems, and with the extra practice plus three games under their belt, I think Aztecs will play their best game.
What, you expected a pick on Georgia-Alabama?
GREENBERG: Whoever booked that game in Mt. Pleasant, Mich., should be fired immediately. Then again, maybe Sean Lewis just misses the MAC. We all do, buddy.
Let’s talk some NFL unders. You sent me this tweet the other night.
NFL teams 3-0 to the UNDER so far this season:
Bears
Chargers
Dolphins
Falcons
Lions
NY Giants
Steelers
Vikings— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 24, 2024
Which of those eight teams falls off the list this week?
Well, I saw the Colts play last week. So, Steelers-Colts under 40? Or is this the week that the Steelers finally get an over? I guess I’ll ride the streak. I was tempted to take Rams-Bears under 41, but I’m feeling the Caleb Williams’ breakout game is coming. Maybe it was just the stale food I ate at the White Sox game, or maybe my hunch is correct. I’m going with Williams over 1.5 touchdown passes and over 220.5 yards.
I’ll add Bengals -4 at the Panthers in the Andy Dalton Pigskin Classic. They’re due.
JACKSON: I was in three NFL survivor pools. Believing the Bengals were “due” got me bounced out of two of them. In the other, I just felt like it was someone else’s turn to win. I’m charitable like that.
I want the Titans +1 Monday night in Miami. I want under 37 in Browns-Raiders, and I’d consider taking that under 27. I’m with you on Steelers-Colts under 40.
Now that it’s slipped under 24, I also want Ohio State -23.5 Saturday night in East Lansing. That’s just a talent mismatch, and maybe the start of Big Ten play will inspire the Buckeyes to put together four full quarters. But I close with a different kind of college game to end September. My pick of the month? Some are saying they had better things to do last Saturday afternoon than watch Duke at Middle Tennessee State, but you won’t catch me saying that. I had the proper read on Duke and the wrong read on the total, and I’m here for redemption.
Memphis-Middle Tennessee over 61.5. This Middle Tennessee defense ranks above No. 120 in most major categories to this point, and Memphis just gave up 566 yards to Navy last week. Memphis got into a slog vs. Florida State but otherwise has scored a bunch, and it will again. Give me that over as I believe Middle Tennessee can also get to at least 20 points.
GREENBERG: All eyes will be on the state of Tennessee. Hopefully, all the points will be scored there too.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Nick Herbig: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
