It’s championship weekend and you can bet (pun intended) that Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg and Browns beat writer Zac Jackson have some thoughts on Commanders–Eagles and Bills–Chiefs.
GREENBERG (2-3-1 last week, 74-61-1): I don’t know about you, but with about five minutes to go in the national championship game, I really thought we were going to be able to hit that under. And then Riley Leonard pulled a Keyser Soze and threw a perfect ball downfield for a touchdown. My wife got a good laugh out of my fleeting optimism. Ah well, that’s how it goes.
I did go 2-1-1 in the NFL playoffs, a nice bounce-back week. (Fun fact: I had slightly different lines when I bet the game, so, in reality, I pushed the Chiefs and won the Eagles instead of the other way around.)
Now we’re down to two games. How are you leaning?
JACKSON (4-3, 65-70): Every number matters, which is something you started to learn in second grade back in Steubenville. Be better, Jon!
You’ve still been really good. I’ve been more down than up, but we’re here for the rush, aren’t we? Chiefs-Bills is undoubtedly going to the fourth quarter and will provide us the rush. Can I really be against Patrick Mahomes in this spot? I know you’re sticking with KC, but I think I like Buffalo +2, especially given that I think it’s going to the wire.
GREENBERG: Are fans tired of the Chiefs? Do they want to see Josh Allen thrive? Or do some want to see a three-peat? I think I fall in the latter category.
I know there’s some blowback on Patrick Mahomes right now, and then there was the Taylor Swift fatigue of last year, but I still like watching the Chiefs dominate. Maybe if my Steelers were better, I’d feel differently. (Or if the Chiefs cheated to beat my Steelers in the AFC Championship. Ahem.)
Mahomes and Company have beaten the Bills three times in the playoffs since 2021 and covered each time, including last year’s 27-24 win as 2-point underdogs. In his autobiography, Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder wrote, “The smart professional gambler, when heads comes up four times in a row, will bet that it comes up again. … He believes in the percentages. The amateur bettor will figure that heads can’t come up again, that tails is ‘due.’”
So let’s make it four in a row: Chiefs -2.
I’ll also take over 47.5, because I can see it going just over 50. Are you taking anytime touchdown bets on the familiar favorites Allen (+100) and Travis Kelce (+130)? I have bad luck with prop bets, so I’m not booking them.
JACKSON: I also lean to the over in Kansas City, and I think a tease with Bills and over is an easy winner. You know how those generally go, though one of my winners last week was Kelce receptions over. That’s a playoff staple and nearly as automatic as my Texans to get flagged for roughing the passer (-10000) that for some reason BetMGM wasn’t offering.
I’d take the Bills if I had to, but I have one I really like.
Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown missed the first 14 weeks of the season due to injury, then got 15 targets (and caught nine of them) in the two games he played. Brown only got two targets last week and didn’t have a reception. He’s not Kelce, and he’s been passed by rookie Xavier Worthy, both because of the time he missed and because of the way the Chiefs try to involve Worthy, given their struggles to generate much from a traditional run game.
I like Brown to be involved this week, and I think that vibes with our idea that we’re going to see points, productive drives and explosive plays in this game. Brown is explosive enough to get his yards total in one reception, but I’m counting on multiple chances.
I’ll take Brown over 35.5 receiving yards for my play of the week. The Bills know what’s coming with Kelce, and by now, they’ve seen just about all of the ways Andy Reid will try to use Worthy. I’m a little hesitant on Brown over 3.5 receptions, but the over on yards is my favorite play of the weekend.
I have a small Eagles-to-win-the-NFC future, and I think the Eagles win Sunday. Eagles team total over 26.5 at -135 (Editor’s note: shop around for this price as the line listed in the widget below is slightly different) is a good parlay piece for various Kelce and Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown plays, and I don’t mind laying that juice on a flat play. I think the Eagles play with the lead for a lot of the day, and I think that helps Austin Ekeler go over 22.5 receiving yards on the day as the Commanders go into turbo mode.
I know you’re just waiting on my MAC basketball/Super Bowl prop parlays, but we have to play these games first.
GREENBERG: I have three futures left, all placed fairly recently: Chiefs to win the Super Bowl +450, Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP +400 and Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP +1500. None for very much money, but obviously the Eagles winning this Sunday would be nice for me. But I also picked a Commanders upset for an Athletic feature, so either way, I’m covered.
With that in mind, I’ll take Washington +6 this week because I love their story, and I’m a little worried about the Eagles’ meager passing game and Hurts being hurt. And if Jayden Daniels does enough to beat Vic Fangio’s defense at Philadelphia, the hype train can carry all of us to New Orleans. (You and I are not invited to the Super Bowl, but you get my point.)
Here’s a question I’m struggling with: Would you play under 47.5 in this game?
JACKSON: Nope. I think both teams will create big plays and I think I pretty strongly favor over 47.5. Looking at my record, I’m ready for this season to end. I think Washington’s season ends Sunday because the Eagles score a whole bunch.
GREENBERG: Well, you’re only wrong 52 percent of the time, so I guess I’ll steer clear of that total.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
