October will open with a familiar face, the Houston Astros, winners of the American League West in seven of the past eight years, back in the postseason once again. They’ll face the upstart Detroit Tigers, who have taken the league by storm since early July to make the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. The teams will meet in a best-of-three AL Wild Card Series, starting with Tuesday’s Game 1, with the winner advancing to face the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.
Game times
Game 1: Tigers at Astros, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 2: Tigers at Astros, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 3: Tigers at Astros, Thursday, Oct. 3, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
Pitching matchups
Projections say the best version of the Astros playoff roster includes Justin Verlander, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t get a chance at some point if only because of the name on the back of jersey — but it’s also likely that at this point in his career, with his current health, he’s probably the fourth starter. That’s fine; their foursome still sets up as one of the three best in the playoffs thanks to steady veteran Framber Valdez and his super sinker as the anchor (especially with the hair extensions back). Trade deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi has been a revelation for Houston after throttling the use of his curveball and adjusting his target for the slider, and Hunter Brown has a 2.46 ERA (supported by his peripherals) since he added a sinker in mid-May. That threesome can pitch with anyone.
By ERA, this Tigers rotation was a top-five unit this season. But Comerica Park helps suppress homers, and more park-neutral numbers had them more like a top-ten unit. So much of this rotation depends on likely AL CY Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, who is showing no ill effects from pushing his career-high innings total. Could Casey Mize’s new velocity on the slider be what he needs? Could Reese Olson’s stuff regain its pre-injury level? Could Keider Montero find some consistency? If any of those questions are answered affirmatively, this rotation could become something other than a one-trick wonder.
This may not be the best Astros bullpen they’ve had during this core’s run, but Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader are still excellent, and their four best relievers rank about average among playoff teams when judged by park-neutral, stuff-driven projections. The Tigers’ bullpen had a top-five ERA, but by wins above replacement it was 13th-best, and by park-neutral projections, they have the second-worst playoff bullpen. Recently debuted top prospect Jackson Jobe, though, already has top-15 Stuff+ among relievers, and he could be the x-factor that changes everything for Detroit at the end of games.
Advantage Astros overall, though Detroit could easily win Game 1 with an ace of aces on the mound. — Eno Sarris
Why the Astros will win
Since April 27, no American League team has a better record than the Astros, who will bring more postseason experience into October than any of the league’s other five remaining teams. Jose Altuve will start his 104th career playoff game on Tuesday. Alex Bregman will start his 98th. Even Jeremy Peña, who made his major-league debut just three years ago, has taken 103 postseason plate appearances.
Houston’s lineup is top-heavy and chases outside the strike zone far too much. Yordan Alvarez’s sprained right knee may prevent him from playing in the Wild Card Series and, even if he does, expecting him to be at 100 percent efficacy is a stretch, putting pressure on a pitching staff that has the AL’s lowest ERA since May 1.
Hunter Brown owns the league’s third-lowest ERA since May 5 — and couldn’t even get the Game 1 start. That will fall to left-hander Framber Valdez, one of nine starters in baseball to finish the season with a sub-3 ERA. He will hope to hand baseball’s most expensive bullpen a lead late. — Chandler Rome
Why the Tigers will win
The Tigers have gotten so much praise for their late charge, but at 48-30, they have had MLB’s best record since July 1. Detroit has been playing high-caliber baseball for months and there’s no reason to believe that will change now. The Tigers have gotten plenty of charmed fortune, but they can win this series if their pitching continues to thrive.
The team’s 2.81 ERA since Aug. 1 is the best in MLB, so a three-game series could play into their hands. Skubal is on the mound for Game 1, and the Tigers are 21-10 on days he pitches. In Games 2 and 3, the Tigers can match up things to their liking, using pitchers such as Tyler Holton (a 2.19 ERA) with less restrictions than in the regular season. Particularly if Alvarez is less than 100 percent, the Tigers will target their best arms for the top of the Astros’ order. The storyline of A.J. Hinch’s return to Houston could come with a heavy order for managerial chess. — Cody Stavenhagen
Note: Check back Monday for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
Astros player spotlight: Kyle Tucker, RF
If Alvarez is absent or in any way hobbled, all attention should turn to Tucker, who will be seeking atonement on two fronts. Tucker seemed on an MVP trajectory before missing three months with a fractured right shin he sustained on June 3. He’s slashed .365/.453/.587 in 77 plate appearances since his return, production Houston will need him to replicate in October. Last year, Tucker totaled just six hits in 40 postseason at-bats, a miserable 11-game stretch that forced manager Dusty Baker to move him down in the batting order. He’ll hit either third or fourth this October, seeking to make up for both lost time and lingering disappointment. — Chandler Rome
Tigers player spotlight: Parker Meadows, CF
Skubal is the biggest star and Riley Greene is the team’s best position player, but perhaps no player is as impactful as center fielder Parker Meadows. The Tigers are 49-26 in games he starts this season, and the larger that sample has grown, the less it seems like a coincidence. Meadows entered Sunday with an .833 OPS since his Aug. 3 return from the injured list, giving the Tigers a needed boost atop the lineup against right-handed pitching. He’s made multiple game-changing catches thanks to his range and length in center field. He’s a plus base runner. And if he can serve as a spark atop the order, it can help the rest of a still-average Detroit lineup generate runs in October. — Cody Stavenhagen
Tale of the Tape
Who has the edge?
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 (19th) |
3.69 (4th) |
3.55 (5th) |
94 (22nd) |
|
|
4.60 (10th) |
3.81 (9th) |
3.66 (8th) |
111 (5th) |
Astros top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
DH |
35 HR, .308 AVG, 172 OPS+ |
5.4 |
|
|
Rotation |
LHP |
2.91 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 |
4.4 |
|
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
3.10 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 78 G |
1.6 |
|
|
Fielding |
CF |
7 DRS, 6.8 UZR |
1.8 |
Tigers top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
OF |
24 HR, 27 2B, 136 OPS+ |
5.5 |
|
|
Rotation |
LHP |
2.39 ERA, 222 SO, 0.92 WHIP |
6.3 |
|
|
Bullpen |
LHP |
2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 8 SV |
1.2 |
|
|
Fielding |
C |
14 DRS, 26% CS |
1.2 |
Astros must-reads
Yusei Kikuchi proving doubters wrong with another win
As Alex Bregman begins final Astros homestand, Jose Altuve pleads for a re-signing
Joe Espada’s even hand guides Astros to improbable AL West title
Tigers must-reads
For Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, his team’s clinch brings a sip of redemption
Can the Tigers pull it off? Inside one team’s quest for unlikely playoff redemption
Five key Detroit Tigers questions ahead of the postseason
(Top image: Yordan Alvarez: Heather Barry / Getty Images; Tarik Skubal: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
