HOUSTON — Nineteen games remain for the Houston Astros to stave off the Seattle Mariners and settle a few uncertainties.
Their lineup is finally back at full strength, but managing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker’s lingering injuries will require some finesse from first-year manager Joe Espada. So will Justin Verlander’s September swoon, which surely endangers his spot on a possible playoff pitching staff.
Tuesday starts a stretch of 16 consecutive games, one in which the Astros could capture their fourth consecutive American League West title and discover more answers to these lingering questions. Here are three takeaways before it begins.
It’s been a while
Sunday offered a rare glimpse of the overhaul Houston’s offense has undergone. For the first time in 97 days, the team’s batting order contained its best four hitters. The last time it did, the Astros sat seven games below .500 and were in constant search of sparks.
Moving Yordan Alvarez out of the two-hole became one of them. He spent the first 24 games of Houston’s season hitting second, a role Espada envisioned for him before spring training even began.
The Astros’ brutal start forced the first-year skipper to alter his plans. Though Alvarez acknowledged feeling rushed while hitting behind free-swinging leadoff man Jose Altuve, moving him down in the batting order arrived more due to Tucker’s torrid start — something so few in this offense had in April or May.
Tucker returned from a shin fracture on Friday to a far more flexible top half of the lineup. Bregman slugged .475 with an .813 OPS during Tucker’s 78-game absence. Alvarez trailed only Aaron Judge for the major-league lead in OPS across that same span.
Perhaps it is no surprise, then, that Alvarez ascended back into the two-hole on Sunday. Espada did not commit to the configuration for the foreseeable future, but acknowledged he “kind of like the way it looks.” It is, after all, the lineup he visualized starting in January.
Managing Bregman and Tucker’s workloads could force Espada to alter it. If Tucker recaptures the prolific pace he showed before his injury, perhaps a move back to the two-hole — and Alvarez down to where he’s hit most of his career — would behoove the Astros.
What could make most of this conversation moot is the production from catcher Yainer Diaz in the five-hole. Diaz hit eighth the last time Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker were all together in the batting order. The second-year catcher has slashed .298/.321/.450 in 445 subsequent plate appearances, allowing him to ascend as high as third in Houston’s lineup.
GAME OVER 🚀
Yainer Diaz calls game for the @Astros! #Walkoff pic.twitter.com/ZJ2J6qSZkY
— MLB (@MLB) August 20, 2024
Among players who’ve taken at least 120 plate appearances with runners in scoring position since June 3, only Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have higher batting averages than Diaz. Slotting behind four of the team’s best on-base threats — in whatever order Espada wants — is a wise plan.
“I like the idea of giving him more opportunities to drive people in,” Espada said. “He’s got four guys in front of him that get on base all the time.”
Cy Young Award cases
Two of the three lowest earned-run averages in the American League belong to Astros starters, spurring obvious intrigue about their place in the Cy Young Award balloting. The award appears Tarik Skubal’s to lose, but if the Detroit Tigers’ ace falters across the season’s final months, Framber Valdez could cause a compelling debate among voters.
Valdez lowered his ERA to 2.97 with seven scoreless innings on Friday against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that led the sport in runs scored. Only Skubal has a lower ERA than Valdez among American League qualifiers.
One spot behind them is Ronel Blanco, who boasts a 3.03 mark, but after just 150 1/3 innings. The Astros already bypassed one of Blanco’s turns in the rotation and are monitoring his workload, so he likely won’t accrue enough innings to merit meaningful Cy Young Award consideration.
Whether Valdez can do that is a legitimate question. He’s thrown 157 1/3 innings across 25 starts, a consequence of missing 18 games in early April with what the team described as “left elbow soreness.”
Seventeen American League starters entered Tuesday with more innings pitched than Valdez. Among them, Corbin Burnes, Seth Lugo and Logan Gilbert all had ERAs of 3.18 or lower, close enough to Valdez’s mark to make innings more of a factor. Lugo, in particular, has a 3.05 ERA across an American League-high 186 innings.
Thirty members of the Baseball Writers Association of America will cast a five-pitcher ballot to settle this argument. Each voter’s priorities vary. Some emphasize workload or a team’s overall success while others may show love to Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase or stay beholden to advanced metrics in making their determinations.
Valdez’s 1.09 WHIP is tied with Blanco’s for the sixth-lowest among qualified American League starters. His 3.21 fielding independent pitching trails Skubal, Gilbert and Cole Ragans for the American League lead.
According to FanGraphs, Valdez has been worth 3.4 wins above replacement. Six American League starters entered Sunday with a higher mark. Five had higher WARs according to Baseball Reference, which measured Valdez worth 3.8.
Skubal tops both sites’ WAR leaderboards. He would have to author a staggering September decline to not capture his first Cy Young Award. Even then, Valdez’s hopes of winning may be faint, but the 30-year-old southpaw has still positioned himself for his second top-five finish in three seasons.
Fundamental fixes?
The Astros’ attention to fundamentals waned throughout last season, be it by pitchers failing to control the running game or a dramatic defensive downturn from a club that prides itself on playing clean.
Espada prioritized addressing the flaws throughout his first spring training as a manager. Now that 19 games remain in the regular season, here’s how a pair of defensive metrics have viewed the club since 2022.
Astros defensive progression
| Year | Defensive Runs Saved (MLB Rank) | Outs Above Average (MLB Rank) |
|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
68 (4) |
36 (2) |
|
2023 |
15 (17) |
7 (11) |
|
2024 |
minus-1 (20) |
0 (17) |
Caveats must be considered when digesting these stats. Tucker, a three-time Gold Glove finalist in right field, hasn’t played the position since fracturing his right shin on June 3. Shortstop Jeremy Peña, the American League Gold Glove winner in 2022, has committed nine errors in his past 27 games.
Tucker’s injury, coupled with Chas McCormick’s underperformance, made both corner outfield spots into more of a rotation than Houston envisioned before the season. The team views both McCormick and Tucker as above-average defenders. No American League team has received worse first-base defense than the Astros, either.
A first baseman and a corner outfielder could be atop Houston’s offseason wish list — and perhaps could patch up some of the defensive shortcomings. At the same time, Bregman’s free agency could take away one of baseball’s most consistent third basemen. Bregman’s five outs above average lead all American League third basemen.
One area where the Astros have improved: holding base runners and controlling the running game. Diaz and backup Victor Caratini have combined to throw out 35 of 147 base-stealers, but that 23.8 percent caught-stealing rate does not tell the entire story. According to Baseball Savant, runners are 55.8 feet from second base when Diaz catches and 55.9 feet for Caratini. The league average is 56 feet.
For reference, last season, base-stealers were 53.9 feet from second base when a pitch crossed the plate for starter Martín Maldonado. They were 54.1 feet from the bag when Diaz played.
(Photo of Framber Valdez: Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images / USA Today)
