HOUSTON — A month of mediocre baseball did nothing to disturb Dana Brown’s plan. His Houston Astros are one of the sport’s most underachieving teams, languishing in a weak division while discovering different ways to drop close games. Injuries have ravaged the starting rotation. Underperformance limits their lineup.
Brown can solve both problems before the July 30 trade deadline, but whether it’s wise for the franchise’s long-term future is a legitimate question. The second-year general manager has spent the past month dismissing such a presumption. A club not playing like a buyer will be one anyway.
“I don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers. I think we’re going to be buyers,” Brown said before Monday’s series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Answering any other way is impossible for Brown, who must be mindful of how his comments will play inside the clubhouse. It would be a dereliction of duty for Brown to not consider all alternatives, even if he claims otherwise.
His declaration doubled down on similar statements he made during a May 7 appearance on MLB Network. The Astros awoke that morning seven games back in the American League West.
They arrived at the ballpark on Monday 7 1/2 games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners in baseball’s worst division. Houston won just 14 of the 26 games after Brown appeared on MLB Network, getting just two games closer to .500.
Alex Bregman, who hit a two-run homer in Sunday’s 4-3 loss to the Twins, is a free agent after this season. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
Before Monday’s game, FanGraphs gave Houston just a 19.9 percent chance to win the American League West, but with 34.1 percent odds to sneak into the expanded postseason. Six American League teams had better playoff odds than the Astros. Only six teams qualify.
“I’ve seen teams blow leads from five games up to seven games up in September. In Atlanta when we won the World Series, we didn’t get to .500 until game 100,” Brown said. “I don’t foresee us being sellers at all. We’re going to grind it out. I think we’re going to get back to .500 before people know it and we’ll be back in the race.”
Doing so must start this month, perhaps the easiest Houston has encountered all season. Seventeen of its games in June are against teams that entered Monday under .500. Nine are against the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox, three of the worst clubs in the sport. Five off days during the month should offer enough reprieve for any fatigue, too.
Whether Brown will publicly acknowledge it or not, how his club plays this month may determine how drastic he acts at the trade deadline.
Owner Jim Crane has long been loath to sell — and his influence in this decision-making can’t be overlooked — but a subpar June may leave little choice but to consider it. Houston has a barren farm system that it can restock by making any of Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly or Justin Verlander available to contending teams.
“We would have to really fall apart for that to happen,” Brown said when asked whether he would have to contemplate selling if the team can’t climb back to .500 by the deadline.
“The pitching would have to be struggling. The hitters would have to be struggling. If there’s any sign of hope, I can’t see us doing it,” Brown said.
“Right now, even when you’re losing and the players are still playing well and you’re losing one-run games, two-run games, at some point you feel like it’s going to turn around. I don’t feel like there’s any scenario where we’re going to be sellers. The team is too good.”
Brown does not have a plethora of prospects to trade, but a torrid June may make him more willing to part with the few Houston possesses. Crane is carrying the highest payroll in franchise history and has already blown past the first competitive balance tax threshold.
Outside projections put the club about $4 million away from reaching the second one at $257 million. Whether Crane is amenable to crossing it is a legitimate question, but this is the same owner who engaged in a serious pursuit of Blake Snell in spring training.
Having a legitimate chance at a World Series championship could increase the likelihood of Crane moving into more uncharted territory. The Astros first must provide one for anyone to find out.
“We haven’t hit all cylinders yet,” Brown said. “The fact that we haven’t hit all cylinders yet tells me a lot. Once we hit all cylinders — we got hot there for a minute and it looked good for about a week — I think that’s coming multiple times. I think we’re going to get hot at some point. I’m not in panic mode. We got 102 games left and I think this team is a really good team.”
Where Brown can bolster it is obvious. First base remains a problem, as does José Abreu’s continued presence on the roster. Neither José Urquidy nor Cristian Javier is coming back any time soon — if at all — leaving five healthy starters with substantial major-league experience on the 40-man roster. Two of them, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti, have never thrown more than 125 innings in any professional season.
“If we can get more offense that would be great, particularly a left-handed bat,” said Brown, who sent Joey Loperfido’s left-handed bat down to Triple-A to make room for Abreu on the active roster.
“That’s one of the areas, if we could get another bat, that would be intriguing for me. You can never have enough pitching. I’m always in pursuit of pitching because you need pitching to win and you pitching to go deep.”
(Top photo of Dana Brown: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
