Virginia last sent its electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, during George W. Bush’s reelection effort. In the 20 years since, the Old Dominion has favored Democrats for the presidency, although they don’t mind electing Republican governors, like the current Glenn Youngkin.
As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for Virginia has Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by an average of 5.8 points; but that margin is narrowing, the Old Dominion may possibly be in play (RCP lists it as “Leans Harris”) and the surprising part is the demographic that is narrowing the vice president’s lead.”Washington Secrets” columnist Paul Bedard writes about a new poll at the Washington Examiner:
A Virginia victory on Tuesday may be within reach for former President Donald Trump, according to new polling data showing that he is winning over a key voting group.
A new Cygnal survey shared with Secrets said that the Republican is gaining with non-college-educated voters, which is key to winning in the Commonwealth.
What’s more, Virginia is rare in which voters feel good about the direction under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
But in the commonwealth that hasn’t picked a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, Vice President Kamala Harris also has some big positives, such as winning more college-educated voters than President Joe Biden did in 2020. And, said Cygnal, she leads Trump overall by seven points, 50%-43%.
Trump is visiting southern Virginia Saturday, hosting a rally in Salem, which is on I-81 near Blacksburg, home to Virginia Tech, and just west of Roanoke.
Trump’s big, raucous, trademark rallies are great for stirring up enthusiasm in the base, and they sure do draw a lot of attention, but it’s unclear as to how many voters they may peel away from the other side. That’s not the interesting part here; what’s interesting about this is the demographic that seems to be tipping the scales.
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The key demographic here? Younger voters.
When all the dust settles this election, we will see that voters 18-29 are breaking from the norm. Harris will drastically underperform both Biden and Clinton with this group and @morgonnm explains exactly why! https://t.co/694pgfTKix
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchStoneBrown) October 29, 2024
Younger voters, in general, tend to skew more towards Democrats, but that may be changing in Virginia, Bedard shared:
“Trump continues to gain ground among non-college educated voters whereas Harris is performing on par with Clinton and Biden’s number from 2016 and 2020,” said Cygnal pollster and director of political strategy Mitch Brown.
“Combine Trump’s gains and Harris’ flatlines with the fact that 55% of Virginia voters think the Commonwealth is headed in the right direction and over 52% approve of the job Governor Youngkin is doing means the momentum is with Republicans with just days to go to Election Day,” he added.
This may not be as surprising as it seems at first. Younger people, after all, have less disposable income; their income has to reach farther than most of their older counterparts. And at the moment, their paychecks are being eaten alive by the grocery bill, the utility bill, buying gas for the car, and trying to have a little fun now and that. For most, buying a home is out of reach, and even renting is a problem. Our own two, younger daughters can only afford a decent rented townhome in a good neighborhood because our youngest lives with her sister and brother-in-law, so the bills are split three ways, not two – and these kids are nearing 30, with no hope of buying homes any time soon.
It’s not at all unlikely, if these trends continue, that being a Republican and a conservative may be the hip, cool, ‘counterculture’ thing to do. And that wouldn’t be the worst thing that ever happened in the United States; not by a long shot.
