Expected goals are part of the modern football vernacular, but maybe we should be talking about expected wins. Because that’s what we get when Brighton & Hove Albion travel to Manchester United.
Sunday’s 3-1 triumph was their third Premier League victory in as many seasons at Old Trafford under three different head coaches, Fabian Hurzeler emulating Roberto De Zerbi in 2023-24 (also 3-1) and Graham Potter in 2022-23 (2-1).
It is an indication of how far Brighton have come — and to an extent how far Manchester United have fallen — that visits to one of football’s great theatres no longer holds any fears, just the prospect of three points.
There is no common theme to the manner of the wins, other than the growing sense that Brighton belong at such venues. Potter launched the club’s change in style to building from the back when he succeeded Chris Hughton in 2019. De Zerbi took baiting the opposition to the extreme, while Hurzeler focuses more on intensity, especially out of possession.
But the successes against United underpin a coherent structure behind the scenes in appointing bright, ambitious coaches allied to smart player recruitment, such as 21-year-old midfield partners Carlos Baleba and Yasin Ayari. Both already full internationals, the Cameroonian and the Swede bossed it in the middle.
It didn’t used to be like this. Brighton spent 34 years at least one division below United after losing to them in an FA Cup final replay at Wembley in 1983, a defeat that was accompanied by relegation from the old First Division.
In the 1998-99 season — when United famously completed a Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup treble — Brighton finished 17th in the fourth tier. Hurzeler, then a small child watching at home in Germany when he was supposed to be asleep, was reduced to tears by the late comeback from Sir Alex Ferguson’s team in the Champions League final against his beloved Bayern Munich.
Brighton celebrate yet another win over Manchester United (Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
Hurzeler went on to play for Bayern’s academy and for their reserves before ending his playing career as a midfielder at the age of 23 to concentrate on coaching. The tears gave way to joy on the 31-year-old’s first visit to Old Trafford as a coach, starting before kick-off with a poignant meeting with Ferguson after Hurzeler restored fit-again ex-United forward Danny Welbeck to his starting line-up for the first time since late November.
Hurzeler, speaking after the match, said: “It was very special. In my squad we have one of the favourite players (Ferguson) worked with. Danny Welbeck connected us and we had a small exchange several weeks ago. He is a very humble and nice guy. Today we met for the first time in person. He is one of the best coaches, ever, so it was great to meet him.”
Hurzeler’s players showed scant regard for lofty reputations. There was an unmistakable air of opportunity knocking off the back of a restorative 4-0 win at Norwich in the FA Cup and a 2-0 victory at Ipswich on Thursday, which ended eight matches without a win in the league — including six draws.
That same evening, United staged a late fightback to recover from 1-0 down to beat relegation-bound Southampton 3-1, staving off a fourth home league defeat on the trot. Ruben Amorim’s back three, with wing-backs Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui both instinctively attack-minded, was an invitation for Brighton’s pacey wingers to exploit spaces behind the home defence in wide areas.
Kaoru Mitoma on the left and Yankuba Minteh on the right exchanged assists and goals to put Hurzeler’s side 2-1 up in a dominant second half after losing their way when they were too passive and gave away a soft penalty for Bruno Fernandes to equalise in the opening 45 minutes. Substitute Georginio Rutter continued a rich vein of form with his fourth goal in three games to seal the points.
Hurzeler said: “We knew how Manchester United would play and we can prepare for that. We also had this feeling that we are in a good momentum. We came here after two wins, so we had belief in ourselves. It’s important to prepare your team for what the opponent is doing, but it is also very important to trust and give the players the feeling that we have to focus on ourselves.
“When we are on our limit. When we do things right, have a clear structure in possession, when we defend together, then we have a chance to win here.”
The result completed a double for Hurzeler’s team over United. They also beat them 2-1 at the Amex Stadium last August in Hurzeler’s first home game in charge, when Erik ten Hag was still in the United hot seat. Home and away, Brighton have their measure.
They have won six of their last seven Premier League meetings and eight out of 16 overall. The 50 per cent win rate is the highest of any side against United in the history of the competition. All things considered, it was not a difficult result to see coming.
Encouragingly for Hurzeler, Brighton have still yet to produce what he would regard as a complete 90-minute performance across his 22 league games so far. Nevertheless, they are back up to ninth in the table, eight points and four places above United. They are on course to finish above them in the Premier League for the first time, with the quest to qualify for Europe firmly back on track.
Welbeck, 34, could not have believed that when he began six years as a first team player at United by scoring on his Premier League debut against Stoke in November 2008. Brighton finished that campaign in 16th place in League One. How times have changed.
(Top photo: Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
