As we reported, “top-rated” pollster J. Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register’s famed Iowa Poll got it wrong leading up to the 2024 presidential election—ridiculously wrong.
Just days before the vote, she announced her unexpected finding that the nominee appointed by the Democrat elite, Kamala Harris, was ahead of Donald Trump by three points in the Hawkeye State. This caused cheers from liberals as they thought it meant Harris really was going to win the whole shebang.
Trump went on to thrash her in the state by a 13-point margin, winning 56-43 percent.
Oops.
Now she’s getting out, although she claims she made the decision a while ago:
Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.
One can’t help but wonder, then: knowing that it was her last rodeo, did she decide to throw caution (and reliability) out the window in order to give her preferred candidate a boost?
Fox News media pundit Joe Concha made his opinion clear:
Iowa pollster Ann Selzer just announced she’s retiring from polling.
Once known as the “gold standard” – she gave us the Harris +3 in Iowa poll.
Trump won the state by +13 (16 points off)
Selzer allowed her TDS emotions to greatly influence her numbers this time around.
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) November 17, 2024
RedState’s Bonchie knew at the time that something was amiss:
So that’s the setup, and while I’ve spent all cycle abiding by a self-enforced rule of not dismissing polls that don’t fit my preferred outcome, often angering people on my own side of the aisle, this one is such an unbelievable outlier that I think making an exception is called for.
To be frank, I don’t think Selzer’s final offering in Iowa is anywhere close to reality, and there’s empirical data to support that viewpoint.
Related: We Need to Talk About That Selzer Poll in Iowa That Has Democrats Predicting a Harris Landslide
The Funny Thing About That Iowa Poll and a Big Reason Polls May Still Be Underestimating Trump’s Strength
🚨 BREAKING: Ann Selzer has “retired” after releasing Hoax Poll of Kamala +3% in Iowa days before election.
How much do you think Democrats paid her to release this propaganda poll? pic.twitter.com/YQNc6gxJ83
— Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) November 17, 2024
Adding more drama to the story, the poll was leaked before publication and made it into the hands of partisans like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who used it to try to fire up Dem voters. The parent company of the Register is investigating:
The company behind the Des Moines Register, which published Ann Selzer’s poorly-aged Iowa poll, has launched an investigation after the poll’s findings were allegedly leaked on X prior to publishing, according to a new report.
Selzer’s pre-election poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. The poll was published by the Des Moines Register on the evening of November 2. But an unknown social media user, who assumes the handle “IllinoisLib,” posted the results on X roughly an hour before it went live, according to a report from Semafor.
The whole thing smells very fishy indeed. Pollsters’ image suffered yet another embarrassing blow in 2024 after having been way off in 2016 and 2020 as well, but Selzer comes out as perhaps the loser of all. Her face should be awfully red as she walks out the door.
