CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP, Pa. — Social media doesn’t always speak for the rest of society, but sometimes, it can provide a gauge of what many members of the fan base are thinking.
Comments like this have been visible during the Penguins’ rather stunning four-game winning streak.
This is costing them a top-five pick.
Don’t they know they aren’t supposed to be winning now?
Tristan Jarry is screwing the Penguins for a second time this season.
And on and on.
I get it. The Penguins are somewhere between the middle and the bottom right now, and that’s where they’ve been for three years. Historically speaking, that’s not a good way to build a team. No franchise knows this better than the Penguins.
They bottomed out in 1984, and it brought Mario Lemieux to Pittsburgh.
Around the turn of the century, they started to stink again for a few years. It brought them Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin and, finally, Sidney Crosby.
The draft lottery primarily exists because of the 1983-84 Penguins. There have been two glorious eras of Penguins hockey, both because the franchise plummeted to extraordinary depths.
It’s simply in the DNA of Penguins fans to root for a tank to happen, to get that top pick, to trigger a third era of greatness. It makes sense. It still may well happen. In recent years, teams have thrown parties for themselves when they land that No. 1 pick, and understandably so. It gives franchises hope. And sells tickets. And puts you on national TV a lot.
The goal in Pittsburgh, however, is to win championships. In the past 45 years, no team has won the Stanley Cup more than the Penguins. Only the Oilers can match them, with five championships apiece.
With that in mind, let’s talk about talking. Let’s talk about that top pick.
Of the past 16 players drafted No. 1, only two have won the Stanley Cup with the team that drafted them.
Two.
Nathan MacKinnon and Aaron Ekblad. That’s it. And with all due respect to Ekblad, who has enjoyed a very good NHL career, I don’t think the Panthers are reigning champions because of him.
MacKinnon is just one of two No. 1 picks selected in the past 16 years to win the Cup with the team that drafted them. (Photo: Geoff Burke / USA Today)
It’s not that you don’t want to get the top pick, that you don’t want the ping pong balls to bounce your way. Of course, you do, especially in 2026, when a true phenom in Gavin McKenna will be selected with the No. 1 pick.
But why exactly are the Penguins supposed to be tanking for this season? It’s a perfectly fine draft, according to scouts and prospect experts. Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa figure to be the top two picks, and they’ll be terrific NHL players. I’ve seen Porter Martone play and, were I the Penguins, I’d trade up (if necessary) to get him because he’s exactly who they need.
Tanking, however, isn’t all it’s cut out to be. If you want a certain player, there are plenty of things you can do. You can make trades. The Penguins have the draft assets and tradable veterans to move up in drafts, to identify certain players.
Additionally, when you tank, you start to lose credibility. And dignity. And more than anything, you lose what we like to call a “winning culture.”. And I assure you, that kind of culture is far more precious than slotting fifth instead of eighth in the draft.
No, you don’t want to be picking 12th every season. You miss out on blue-chip prospects too often. I understand.
But looking at the Penguins, it will serve them perfectly fine to remain on this track. First, this isn’t a good team and this four-game winning streak probably is a mirage of epic proportions. If you trust the Penguins to keep playing reasonably good defensive hockey, they’re all yours. If you trust Jarry to keep playing like this, have at it.
The truth is, this isn’t a good team and it probably will struggle to finish the season strongly — this four-game winning streak notwithstanding. The Penguins currently possess the NHL’s eighth-worst record. Mind you, all of those teams behind them have games in hand on them, and they’re only three points away from having the fifth-worst record. They could still easily land a top-five pick.
Still, they’ve not done as much damage lately as you might think. Their odds to land the top pick are currently six percent, and without this obnoxious little winning streak, they’d be standing at 9.5 percent odds. We’re talking 3.5 percent.
And yes, it’s not just about the top pick. Right now, the Penguins are in line to get, at worst, the tenth pick in the draft (and that would mean falling the maximum two spots if the lottery balls don’t bounce their way). Without this winning streak, they’d be more in line to get the fifth or sixth pick.
I understand simple math, which is to stay, I would rather have the fifth pick than the eighth pick in this draft. However, my understanding of simple math also tells me that the Penguins almost certainly aren’t landing the top pick one way or the other. And it also tells me that the team with the worst record in the league only has a 25 percent chance of attaining the top prize. It’s a game of chance, and if you play it too intensely, you can lose your mind and your franchise.
How are things going for the Sharks these days? Or the Blackhawks? Or possibly the best example, the Buffalo Sabres. They’ve had the No. 1 pick in two of the past seven seasons. How are things working out in Buffalo?
Here’s what I know: The Penguins are in a rebuilding phase, even if they don’t call it that. They possess 30 draft picks in the next three years, and 18 of those are in the first three rounds. Four of them will be in the first round and six in the second round. There will be extremely talented players available to them. Maybe the hockey gods will give them a top pick at some point.
The most important part of the equation is the guy wearing No. 87. See, the Penguins probably won’t get a top-five pick in this draft because of Crosby. He’s still so good, and still has so much will, that he may not let the Penguins sink that low. There is a reward to all of this, though. Would you rather have the fifth pick in the draft? Or would you rather have the eighth pick, who will then be exposed to Crosby for a few years, before he walks away for good?
I know which one I would choose.
Tanking doesn’t guarantee success. No. 1 draft picks don’t guarantee championships. That the Penguins still play as hard as they do every night is a testament to Crosby and the culture he’s cultivated in Pittsburgh. It’s a culture that continues pumping blood into the Penguins. Sure, more talent is required.
It’s on the way.
Don’t obsess over which draft pick the Penguins receive. Whichever players come to Pittsburgh, they’ll get to learn from the master, and that goes a long way.
Maybe the Penguins will beat the Islanders on Tuesday. It’s OK.
Franchises that are OK with losing typically have a hard time ever learning how to win. Crosby knows how to win and he’ll teach the kids well, no matter if they’re picked No. 1 or No. 8.
(Photo: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
