Making the World Cup is special. Reaching soccer’s grandest show for the first time? Even more so.
That’s why, when China made its only World Cup appearance in 2002, tens of millions of schoolchildren were given the day off school. And it’s why a healthy chunk of Iceland’s entire population gathered on a huge hill in the capital, Reykjavik, to watch the action collectively in 2018.
Upon deciding to grow the World Cup to 48 teams for 2026, up from 32, FIFA focused on increasing the qualifying chances for nations that were often left on the outside looking in.
It seems to be working out that way. Months of qualifying still remain, but potential newcomers including Uzbekistan, Comoros, Rwanda, Venezuela, Curaçao and Tahiti will all like their chances as the respective continental campaigns continue this week.
The host nations, the United States, Mexico and Canada, have secured their berths by default, and UEFA has yet to kick off its qualification rounds, but the rest of the world is already sorting out who will comprise the enlarged field.
We can already see a number of countries that are understandably dreaming of either becoming a World Cup Cinderella for the first time, or returning after a long absence. So take a spin around the globe to check on the potential future underdogs that could be headed to North America in the summer of 2026:
AFC
The Asian Football Confederation now has eight direct entries into the tournament field, with one slot for the six-team intercontinental playoff that will take place next year for the final two slots. The region’s third and most decisive qualifying round is already over halfway played entering the March window, and 18 teams remain in contention.
There are three groups of six teams in AFC’s third round, with the top two automatically qualifying for the 2026 World Cup and the third- and fourth-placed teams advancing to a fourth round that will determine the playoff entrant.
Uzbekistan has been among the top performers in the region through six games, notching 13 points to trail only regional powerhouse Iran in Group A. The White Wolves are coached by Timur Kapadze, who amassed 119 caps for Uzbekistan from 2002-2015 and was appointed at the start of this year. Rising star defender Abdukodir Khusanov has swiftly become a regular since joining Manchester City in January, while captain Eldor Shomurodov is a part of AS Roma’s attacking rotation.
If the Uzbeks can hold off the United Arab Emirates and Qatar over the next four games, it would mean reaching the first World Cup in the nation’s history.
Uzbekistan is on the verge of a historic World Cup debut. (Noushad Thekkayil / NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Iraq has only previously appeared in one World Cup, back in 1986, but is currently second in Group B with a narrow edge over Jordan and Oman. The 2007 Asian Cup champion features two 21-year-old midfielders who play in the Eredivisie (Zidane Iqbal and Ali Jasim), as well as Stoke forward Ali Al-Hamadi. The coach, Jesús Casas, was previously an assistant to Luis Enrique and Robert Moreno for Spain from 2018 until early 2022.
While Japan is the runaway leader in Group C, the other five teams are all within a single point of one another entering the final four fixtures. Australia has a narrow edge despite drawing four of the first six matches, but Indonesia (which became the first team from Asia to qualify back in 1938, but has since been absent), Bahrain (which hasn’t yet reached a World Cup) and China (whose only appearance came in 2002) are tied with Saudi Arabia and hoping to capitalize on any further slips from the Socceroos.
CAF
In the Confederation of African Football’s new format, 54 national teams have been drawn into nine groups. The winner of each six-team group will automatically advance, while the top four runners-up will enter a playoff to determine the continent’s inter-confederation entrant.
Teams have thus far only played four of their 10 group matches, but a few shock upsets have previous longshots dreaming big.
Unbeaten and with three wins, Sudan is narrowly ahead of Senegal and DR Congo atop Group B. The Falcons of Jediane are among Africa’s oldest national teams, but have yet to qualify for a World Cup. They’ll host the first matchup with Senegal on Saturday, with a squad mostly comprised of domestic league players hoping to send shockwaves.
Early struggles from Nigeria have left Group C wide open, with Rwanda and Benin — both of whom have never previously reached a World Cup — tied with South Africa, as Bafana Bafana hope to make their return to the tournament, having last qualified as the 2010 host. Benin is led by former Premier League striker Steve Mounié, who’s now with FC Augsburg, while much of South Africa’s squad plays domestically, save for Burnley forward Lyle Foster.
Steve Mounié is Benin’s main goalscoring threat. (Oryk Haist / GocherImagery /Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Many of CAF’s nine groups are already led by some of the continent’s regular contenders: Egypt (A), Cameroon (D), Morocco (E), Côte d’Ivoire (F), Algeria (G) and Tunisia (H).
However, Comoros surprised many by beating Ghana 1-0 in November 2023, and is currently heading Group I thanks to that head-to-head tiebreaker. Comoros only became a FIFA member in 2005, but veteran coach Stefano Cusin and a squad of players largely playing in France and elsewhere in Europe are in fine standing entering their final six matches.
Concacaf
Even diehards of the North and Central American region will be forgiven for having lost track of the confederation’s qualifying process. Some of the intrigue has dwindled as a byproduct of having three automatic qualifiers through hosting privileges. Concacaf hasn’t played a single qualifier since last June, and won’t conclude its second round of qualifying until this June.
As such, the region’s six groups of five have largely gone stale, but once the back half of the second round concludes in early summer, things should quickly pick up. The top two teams from each group will advance to the final round, where they’ll be sorted into three groups of four. The three group winners will join the hosts in the World Cup tournament field while the two best runners-up will advance to the inter-confederation playoff.
Between the proceedings’ early stage and the long layoff, it’s tough to take much away from the present state of affairs. Curaçao and Haiti are early front-runners in Group C, with Curaçao having not yet reached a World Cup while Haiti made its sole appearance to date in 1974. Nicaragua won its first two games last summer, while Suriname and Puerto Rico are making two-time qualifier El Salvador sweat in Group F.
CONMEBOL
Amid so much change with the newly bloated field, the South American confederation petitioned FIFA to keep its tried-and-true qualification format, which has all 10 nations play home-and-away to form a tidy table. Argentina is in position to possibly qualify after the March window, with 12 of the 18 matches have already been played. Behind the reigning world champions are another quartet of World Cup mainstays: Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia and Brazil.
The only change is an increase to six guaranteed slots in the tournament, with the seventh-ranked team reaching the inter-confederation playoff.
That increase from four guaranteed spots is great news for Paraguay, which has benefitted from poor cycles for Chile and Peru to sit sixth in the table. It’s just desserts for a nation that has knocked off Argentina and Brazil in qualifying thus far, and its 17 points through a dozen games has them closer to second-ranked Uruguay (on 20 points) than seventh-place Bolivia (13). If they see this through, it would be Paraguay’s ninth World Cup qualification, having most recently made it in 2010.
Miguel Almiron and Paraguay are targeting a spot in the expanded World Cup field of 48. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
Led by Gustavo Alfaro, who coached Ecuador in the 2022 World Cup, Paraguay fields a healthy balance of veterans and up-and-comers. Atlanta United returnee Miguel Almirón dons the 10 shirt, while Brighton newcomer Diego Gómez and Nottingham Forest midfielder Ramón Sosa provide further quality, Julio Enciso is the headliner, though, as the 21-year-old attacking midfielder joined Brighton to much fanfare in 2022 and is currently on loan with Ipswich Town.
Currently, Bolivia and Venezuela are neck-and-neck for the inter-confederation playoff slot. Bolivia last qualified for the World Cup when it was last in the United States (1994), while Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL side to have not reached the World Cup to date. Bolivia had a decisive 4-0 victory at home in September, while Venezuela will host a possibly decisive rematch in June.
OFC
At last, Oceania has a guaranteed entry into a World Cup after many cycles of having to enter through the inter-confederation playoff. The difficult process infamously led Australia to leave the confederation for Asia in 2006, but four teams remain in competition for that coveted place in the 48-team field.
Right now, it seems like New Zealand’s bracket to lose, as the Kiwis have been the region’s relative power since Australia departed. After dominating its second-round group, New Zealand will host Fiji on March 21 in a semifinal, having won 31 of 40 previous matchups between the nations. The winner of that match will advance to the final, where it will face the victor between New Caledonia and Tahiti in Auckland on Mar. 24. Two wins in this window will be enough to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, while the final’s runner-up will enter the inter-confederation playoff.
If New Zealand can win two games on home soil behind Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood, Forest midfielder Marko Stamenić (on loan with Olympiacos) and Minnesota United defender Michael Boxall, it’ll be the nation’s third qualification and first since 2010. Neither Tahiti, New Caledonia nor Fiji has previously reached a World Cup but now finds itself one big upset away from being on the doorstep.
We’ll have our answer by the end of the March window.
UEFA
The confederation with more qualifiers than any (16 slots means a third of the 2026 World Cup will be European), UEFA has yet to commence its first round of qualifying. The confederation has 12 groups drawn with either four or five teams in each, with the dozen winners automatically advancing to the World Cup. But 16 more teams will remain in contention, if they either finished second in their group or were the four best Nations League performers that finished outside of their group’s top two places.
It’s all much more fun to watch than to describe in concept, but only half of the groups — that is, the six groups with five teams involved — will begin qualification in March. The other six groups with just four teams in each will begin their campaigns in September.
(Top photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)
