The men’s basketball selection committee had an easy job at the top of the bracket this year. The 2025 NCAA Tournament might have the best collection of No. 1 seeds in March Madness history.
By the numbers, it is the best, at least in college basketball’s advanced analytics era, which dates back to 1997, when Ken Pomeroy’s eponymous website began tracking college basketball data. This year’s four No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida — are all above 35 in adjusted efficiency margin. (Efficiency margin is determined by points scored and allowed per 100 possessions and adjusted for schedule.) In no other year have even two teams finished above 35. The No. 1 seeds’ net ratings add up to 144.81; last year’s No. 1 seeds’ pre-tourney net ratings totaled 117.7, and remember that field had two truly dominant teams at the top in UConn and Purdue.
Two reasons for that dominance: A funneling of the best mid-major players to high-major programs via the transfer portal, and an all-time season of offensive efficiency across the country, with the teams at the top scoring at historic rates.
That’s why it’s smart to mostly steer clear of riding mid-majors too far. We will look back at last year’s tournament as an inflection point in college basketball history: No true mid-major advanced past the second round. San Diego State (Mountain West) and Gonzaga (WCC) did, but their resources are closer to high-major programs than the schools with which they share a conference. We are only two years removed from both Florida Atlantic and San Diego State reaching the Final Four, but look at what has happened to their rosters since:
- FAU’s entire rotation with eligibility remaining is elsewhere, with Alijah Martin (Florida) and Vlad Goldin (Michigan) playing key roles on two highly seeded teams.
- Stars on that San Diego State still left in college including Lamont Butler (now at Kentucky) and Micah Parrish (Ohio State).
Studying tourney history is always a good guide to filling out your bracket, and although this is a new era, this rule of thumb should hold true: In the years with truly elite teams near the top — using analytics as the measuring stick — a No. 1 seed usually wins the title. A No. 1 seed has also won six of the last seven tournaments.
I’m almost embarrassed at how chalk I went with my picks, but I’ve been writing all year about how the top tier of college basketball was historically good, and it’s hard not to let that knowledge influence my picks. My prediction is we’ll end up with one of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments ever. That might not make for as fun of a first weekend, but the matchups in the second weekend and at the Final Four could be epic.
South Region
• Michigan-UC San Diego might be one of the most interesting matchups of the Round of 64. Michigan’s bugaboo all season has been turnovers, and the Tritons rank second in Division I in defensive turnover rate. The only issue for UC San Diego is its small frontcourt. Michigan is huge up front with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The Tritons will double the post, but Michigan is used to dealing with that, and Wolf is dangerous diving to the basket. Dusty May also has solid options for dealing with UC San Diego star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones between Wolf and Rubin Jones. Before the bracket was released, I was pretty sure I would go with the Tritons, but the Wolverines might just have too much up front. Expect this betting line to be a small one — Michigan is ranked 25th at KenPom, UC San Diego 36th — so if you’re looking for an upset pick that makes sense in this region, this is a good spot.
• Louisville, which lost only two games in conference play, is a bit of a surprise here on the No. 8 line, but that’s how bad the ACC was this year. The Cards could struggle with Bluejays big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, but Creighton needs efficient production from Steven Ashworth, and Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn is a stopper. Whoever wins that matchup will win the game. Hepburn could also be a tough matchup for Auburn in the second round; guards who excel in pick-and-roll situations have given the Tigers some trouble. If you want to fade the No. 1 overall seed, which has struggled defensively lately (ranking 47th in the last three weeks, per Bart Torvik), then this is the first spot to consider the upset. I’m just not sure the Cards have the bodies up front to deal with national player of the year candidate Johni Broome.
• Yale could be a trendy upset pick after knocking off Auburn a year ago, but remember Danny Wolf was on that team and is now at Michigan. The Aggies will likely face Wolf in the second round, and although Texas A&M’s ability to apply pressure and force turnovers is worrisome, Michigan has the bodies to hang on the glass. You have to rebound to beat the Aggies, and the Wolverines will get it done.
• Iowa State was a team considered Final Four-level good in the opening months of the season, but this isn’t the same team. Keshon Gilbert, who was expected to be the Cyclones’ best player this year, is done for the season, coach T.J. Otzelberger announced Sunday. The Cyclones have good depth, but they were laboring down the stretch, losing four of their last seven. Ole Miss coach Chris Beard is familiar with the Cyclones from his time in the Big 12, and his Rebels should be able to handle some physicality after playing in the SEC. A mini-upset here, with the Rebels moving on to the Sweet 16.
• New Mexico is another upset pick I considered, but the way to beat the Lobos is with talented guards who can score off the bounce. Marquette’s Kam Jones might be better at that than anyone in America.
• Michigan State has the easiest path to the Sweet 16 of any No. 2 seed. To beat Auburn, you need guards who can get to the rim and evade Broome, who wants to turn his hips, meet you at the basket to block your shot. That’s a dangerous strategy against speedy guards like Jase Richardson and Jaden Akins. I’m tempted to pick the Spartans or Wolverines to knock off Auburn because the Tigers have lost some of their magic these last few weeks, but a little humility might just be what Auburn needed to refocus.
West Region
• Last year the West got wacky, and it could happen again this year. Florida, Maryland and St. John’s were all teams I considered putting in the Final Four before the bracket was released, but I decided over the last few weeks to pick Florida as my champ, and I’m sticking with that pick. The Gators, much like UConn in 2024, have the hardest path, but I’m a believer in picking what you believe is the best team. That said, the thought of seeing UConn in the second round is scary, as is meeting Maryland’s Crab Five in the Sweet 16, and you could argue St. John’s/Texas Tech is the best No. 2/No. 3 seed combo in any region.
• Memphis won the AAC championship without third-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter. His unclear status makes me hesitant to pick the Tigers to go too far. The predictive metrics do not love Memphis this year (No. 51 at KenPom), and Hunter has the best plus-minus numbers on the team, per CBB Analytics. Mountain West champ Colorado State, winner of 10 in a row, is one of the hottest teams in the country and has one of the best wings in the country in Nique Clifford. His matchup with PJ Haggerty will be a fun one. The Rams could end up betting favorites, and the reason I like them is Rashaan Mbemba has the strength to match up with Memphis big man Dain Dainja.
• Drake will be a trendy upset pick, and for good reason. The Bulldogs are 3-0 against high-major teams this year, Ben McCollum is one of the best coaches in college basketball and he has Bennett Stirtz, whom a rival Missouri Valley coach recently told me is the best guard in the country. The Tigers rely on turnovers and prefer to play fast; McCollum’s teams always control the tempo. He also hasn’t lost in the first round of a NCAA Tournament since 2018. Granted, that’s the Division II tournament, but it’s actually harder to get out of the first round in D-II because their bracket is split into eight regions by geography, meaning the the bottom (No. 8) seed could be a top-20 team if you happen to be located in a stacked region.
• Texas Tech could be upset-prone depending on health. Starting guard Chance McMillian and starting forward Darrion Williams both sat out the Big 12 semis. I’d expect Williams to be back for the tournament, but not so sure on McMillian. I’d be tempted to put Drake in the Sweet 16, but here’s one reason to believe in Texas Tech: Head coach Grant McCasland is one of McCollum’s best friends and is not going to overlook Drake. In fact, these teams played a secret scrimmage in the preseason — won by Texas Tech — so the Red Raiders already know how good Drake is. Also, JT Toppin is a difficult matchup for a smaller front line.
• Arkansas-Kansas is another matchup that took place in the preseason. The Razorbacks won that one comfortably, but it was in Fayetteville and the Jayhawks were without veteran big man Hunter Dickinson. While this is not the typical Kansas team, it was playing better down the stretch, and Arkansas could be out of sync trying to work Boogie Fland back into the lineup from a hand injury that sidelined him for two months.
• Kansas-St. John’s is another game with a perfect storyline. Two years ago, Bill Self recruited Dickinson out of the portal, and his addition pushed out Zuby Ejiofor, who has emerged as a star for the Johnnies. Expect this game to go much like Kansas’ recent loss at Houston. Kansas turned the ball over too often against the Cougars, and they will do it again in a low-scoring game that St. John’s will win.
• The Sweet 16 in this region should be awesome. Maryland will play with Florida for about 30 minutes but eventually wear down against the deepest front line in college basketball. St. John’s is one of the few opponents that can give Texas Tech a hard time finding advantageous matchups for JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. If the Red Raiders get hot from 3, they could pull off the upset. They were the only team to beat Houston in Big 12 play, but their health is a concern.
• This sets up a regional final that will be must-watch television, with Florida star Walter Clayton facing his old coach in Rick Pitino — Clayton started his career at Iona — and one of the sport’s all-time best coaches squaring off against one of its best young ones in Todd Golden. The Gators should be prepared from the three games they played against another blue-collar team with a dominant defense in Tennessee. (Florida won two of three.) St. John’s may be the defense best equipped to slow the Gators, but Florida’s 3-point shooting will be the difference.
East Region
• Oregon-Liberty is one of the few spots where I went with an upset. Like Drake, Liberty can control the pace and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. Oregon prefers to play with pace. It’s not usually a good strategy to bet against Ducks coach Dana Altman in March, but Ritchie McKay is one of the mid-major level’s best coaches, and this is the best team he’s taken to the tournament since 2019 when Liberty upset Mississippi State in the first round.
• VCU is a concerning matchup for BYU. It’s going to take a great defensive team to knock off the Cougars, and that’s what VCU is. But BYU was on a roll recently until it lost by 20 to Houston in the Big 12 semis, and I’m just going to chalk that up to the fact that playing Houston is unlike playing anyone else in college basketball. Under first-year coach Kevin Young, BYU has one of the best offenses in the country and has been playing with a ton of confidence.
• Wisconsin-BYU could be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament. Both teams shoot a lot of 3s, play with beautiful ball movement and are solid but not elite on the defensive end. I think the Badgers are the slightly better team and worry about BYU’s ability to slow down John Tonje, but I have to pick some kind of upset, and BYU has been playing more like a top-three seed of late. This is close to a coin flip.
• Saint Mary’s could give Alabama issues if it can control the pace, but I think the Gaels would need to hit double-digit 3s to keep up. They haven’t done that since Jan. 11.
• If you want to pick Duke to get upset, the Sweet 16 might be a decent spot. Duke beat Arizona by 14 in Tucson earlier this season, but the Wildcats have improved as much as anyone since November, mostly because of the emergence of Henri Veesaar. The Wildcats’ bigs are athletic enough to at least match up with Cooper Flagg, but it would take Caleb Love going nuclear to pull off the upset. I’m tempted but ultimately too much of a believer in this Duke team.
• Speaking of Duke, some may fade the Blue Devils because of the weak ACC they dominated. Let me remind you that Gonzaga has made the national championship game twice coming out of the West Coast Conference. If anything, the easier schedule helped Jon Scheyer find another weapon. I’m not sure he would have experimented with playing freshman sharpshooter Isaiah Evans if Duke was playing in a league like the SEC.
• Duke-Alabama could be another great Elite Eight game. My worry for the Crimson Tide is Grant Nelson’s health. Nelson hurt his knee against Florida in the SEC tournament semifinals, and Alabama will need him at 100 percent to knock off Duke. The Crimson Tide are another team with the size and athleticism up front to deal with the Blue Devils, but Duke wing Kon Knueppel could be a matchup problem. The size and strength of Sion James could also give Crimson Tide leading scorer Mark Sears some issues. I wouldn’t blame anyone for picking Alabama to get back to the Final Four, but Duke and Florida were the two teams I knew pre-bracket I was taking at least to the Final Four, and I’m not budging off that strategy.
Midwest Region
• Houston cannot love the idea of seeing Gonzaga, No. 9 at KenPom, in the second round. The Zags have made nine consecutive Sweet 16s and always seem to be peaking in March. But the Zags lost to Saint Mary’s twice in low-possession games, and Houston has taken its elite defense to another level.
• My buddy Seth Davis took both High Point and McNeese in the Round of 64 in this region, and I was tempted to do the same. Will Wade’s Cowboys played Alabama and Mississippi State close in the nonconference, and the talent gap isn’t going to be that big against Clemson. I am going with High Point for a few reasons. High Point has one of the best offenses at the mid-major level. The Panthers, coached by former Creighton assistant Alan Huss, make 57.4 percent of their 2s, and Purdue has really struggled defensively inside the arc this year without Zach Edey, ranking 350th out of 364 D-I teams in 2-point percentage defense. The health of Fletcher Loyer, who hurt his elbow in the Boilermakers’ Big Ten tournament loss to Michigan, is also a concern. High Point gets by Purdue, but I’m sticking with my rule of no mid-majors past the second round.
• Illinois has been a wild ride this year. Every time I start to believe in the Illini, they give me good reason to jump off the bandwagon. But they have been much better with a healthy Tomislav Ivisic, and he was starting to play better until the loss to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinal. Kentucky, meanwhile, is limping into the tournament and has been injury-riddled all season. If Lamont Butler were back to his usual self, I’d maybe lean Kentucky, but it doesn’t seem like his shoulder is ever going to be the same.
• Tennessee was the one No. 2 seed I was convinced I wouldn’t pick to make the Elite Eight about a week ago, but then I watched the SEC tournament. The Vols’ offense seems to have new life with Jordan Gainey catching fire. UCLA is good enough to pull off the second-round upset. We already watched the Illini almost beat Tennessee in mid-December, when Gainey helped the Vols escape Champaign with a buzzer beater. I wouldn’t blame someone for falling for the Illini, but I’m betting on experience.
• Houston-Tennessee is a Spiderman meme Elite Eight matchup: old rosters, legendary coaches, great defenses and offenses that rely on shot-making guards. I just trust Houston’s guards to consistently make shots at a higher clip. This is Kelvin Sampson’s best offensive team at Houston, and Milos Uzan, who starred in the Big 12 title game, will be the difference in this one as well. But if you want to deviate from my silly chalky ways, this may be a good spot. Sampson told me on Saturday that he thinks the four best SEC teams might be the best four teams in the country, so maybe we should listen to him. But I’m betting on the Cougars, who will enter this tournament (mostly) healthy for the first time since 2021, a year when they made the Final Four.
(Photo: James Gilbert / Getty Images)
