Is the Edmonton Oilers' AHL team equipped to help the NHL team soon?

Edmonton Oilers prospect Matt Savoie is NHL-ready. He’s scoring at an impressive rate (41 points in 50 AHL games, tied for top total among age-20 forwards in the league this year) and has already played with the Oilers this season.

High draft picks like Savoie are destined to fly over AHL cities, or (as in his case) play 50 games (give or take) in the minors.

The AHL is a league that develops players over years, several years, the most important being ages 20-22 (or a little older for college men).

Players arrive with lots of offence and plenty to work on defensively. AHL coaches refine their game, knead the mistakes out and then send them on their way.

Edmonton has been trading draft picks and young players for almost a decade now, and the Bakersfield Condors are perennially low on AHL players aged 20-24 who have an NHL future.

In the days to come, general manager Stan Bowman will be adding free agents from the rich talent pools that include Canadian junior leagues, U.S. college programs and elite European clubs. He needs to be active.

For now, the real prospects in the AHL are easy to spot because they are rare.

Age 20 prospects

Canadian junior grads are usually the largest population in this age group, as college kids and Europeans arrive in the AHL later. If a player can establish himself as a productive offensive and defensive player in the league at this age, he should go on to enjoy a solid NHL career.

This year, Savoie is the only member of the club. His debut with the Condors has been so impressive it’s reasonable to assume he will play in his final games at that level during the months of March and April. Savoie does not represent a typical AHL prospect, he’s a gifted offensive prospect destined for an NHL skill line.

Age 21 prospects

This group has usually completed one minor league season and is matriculating toward an uncertain NHL future. It can work out brilliantly (Mike Kesselring started moving up the Condors depth chart at 21, and later emerged as a fine NHL defenceman) but the failure rate for players who spend their age-21 season entirely inside the AHL is significant.

Among the current Condors, Matvey Petrov has fantastic skill (his shootouts are must-watch) but hasn’t increased his scoring (0.26 points per game last year, 0.38 this season) to the point where he’s pushing for an NHL chance. That will be next season if it comes.

He’s the best of the group, as shutdown defender Max Wanner struggled with injury and was traded, while rugged centre Jayden Grube has stalled offensively and been on the ice for a mountain of goals-against this season. His strength is play away from the puck, so this season is especially disappointing.

It’s too soon to write any of these players off, but one can assume all three will take more than the three-year entry-level deal to develop enough to make the NHL.

Age 22 prospects

Historically, prospects who play at least some NHL games during entry-level deals (age 20-22 for CHL signings) are a tell for future success.

Edmonton has two players in this age group, one of whom has played in the NHL.

Roby Jarventie was acquired last summer from the Ottawa Senators but played just two games for the Condors before suffering an injury. Sadly, his once-promising career has been derailed by a series of injury issues. Recent published reports have Jarventie signing with Tappara in the Liiga for next season, signalling an exit from the Oilers organization.

In December, Bowman made a trade with the Montreal Canadiens to acquire 2020 first-round selection Jacob Perreault. His career has meandered since he turned pro, but his early days in Bakersfield are encouraging. He’s absolutely a skilled forward and gets around the ice well. He was traded twice in 2024, that’s a down arrow for his professional career, but he has talent and is worth watching.

College men

If a player signs out of Canadian junior hockey and begins his pro career at 20, that player will need to have played at least some NHL games by age 23 in order to make the grade as a legit prospect.

There are outliers, but NHL debuts past 23 usually involve one of two routes to the show: American college hockey or European leagues.

Even quality NHL players often take time to arrive in pro hockey due to a circuitous college route or finding their way through leagues in Russia, Sweden, Finland and other hockey countries.

Fernando Pisani is an excellent example from Edmonton’s past. Drafted on June 22, 1996, after finishing his AJHL career with the St. Albert Saints, he played the following four seasons for Providence College (Hockey-East). He started his pro career with the Hamilton Bulldogs in 2000 and made his NHL debut on October 8, 2002 — six years and three months after he was drafted. Pisani was 25 years old (and nine months) on the night he made his NHL entrance.

In this way, college players have a much larger window of opportunity to impress their drafting team. Pisani flew through the system quickly and became an integral part of the early 2000s Oilers who would eventually reach Game 7 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final. Pisani was central to that team’s playoff success and mentored many younger pros in Hamilton and after arriving in Edmonton.

When viewing a current college player like unsigned Luca Munzenberger, it’s important to place his career progression into context. He has speed, a shutdown defensive style and has just completed his senior season with New Hampshire (Hockey-East).

He’s one of the players Edmonton may sign this spring (Munzenberger becomes a free agent after Aug. 15 of this year). His size and speed make him an attractive candidate.

Bowman wasn’t in the organization when Munzenberger was drafted, and the team’s internal scouting reports may not warrant signing him. Considering how few selections the club has made in the top 100 over the last decade, though, Munzenberger might be an astute signing. He’s 22, and the clock on his pro career hasn’t started. His added years of maturity give him an advantage over a similar graduating CHL talent should he sign.

Older prospects in Bakersfield

Zach Hyman didn’t play much in the third period against the New York Islanders on Friday night, leading to much recall speculation.

Most of it involved older players, men aged 30-plus. That kind of recall is rare in today’s NHL, where the farm team normally employs veterans 25-29 as leaders and strong recalls.

The Oilers are built differently because the draft model doesn’t work when a team trades most of its picks for a decade.

Here are Edmonton’s legit recall options, very few representing the true definition of “prospect” at this time.

This list runs counter to modern NHL farm teams. Almost half are 30 or older. NHL recalls from the AHL are mostly young players like Savoie or mid-20s types like Phil Kemp or Cam Dineen.

The list is also short on a legit goalie option in case one of Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard gets hurt in Edmonton.

One area in which the Oilers are better than average? Quality AHL centres. All of James Hamblin, Noah Philp, Derek Ryan and Lane Pederson (who’s injured) are top-drawer AHLers and worthy recalls.

Not many are prospects, but the Oilers have a deep group of centres up and down the line.

The Pisani

Bowman is shopping now for talent from college, Canadian juniors and Europe.

He would do well to find the next Pisani, a player in his early 20s who could be a plug-and-play for Bakersfield in the fall. A goalie addition wouldn’t go amiss, either.

No matter who gets signed, Bowman needs to have more players in their prime (age 24-28) ready for recall and badly needs legit prospects who could (like Pisani 20 years ago) contribute to the NHL team in multiple areas upon recall.

The Condors don’t have a Pisani. That needs to change.

(Photo of Matt Savoie: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)