After preparing for the draft and 21 weeks of regular season coverage, this is the season’s last “Fantasy Trends” column.
Well, sort of.
It’s the last one that will focus on this season. It is a complete playoff preview with tips and notes on the next three weeks. Next Friday, I will be back to discuss keeper picks.
Week 22
The Sabres, Kings and Maple Leafs are back-to-back four-game streamers. Toronto has the best schedule of the three, with two light nights on the docket in Week 22. The position to watch is the second-line left wing. If Calle Jarnkrok maintains his role alongside John Tavares and William Nylander and can keep producing, he is a low-key addition to round out a lineup.
One of the Kings’ upcoming four games will be on a light night. But their opponents are also worth tracking. Minnesota’s goaltending had a rough stretch in February. And while the Blackhawks have trended up, thanks to the arrival of Spencer Knight, their defense is still suspect. On Sunday, Los Angeles will match up to a Bruins team that moved out a number of mainstays at the deadline. One player to target is Andrei Kuzmenko, as long as he sticks on the top line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. The Kings have earned 63 percent of the expected goal share in their minutes together at five-on-five, and he is slotted on the top power-play unit. Kuzmenko doesn’t have the points to show for it yet, but his shot volume and quality are up since the trade.
A healthy JJ Peterka could be a strong add with the Sabres’ schedule in mind, especially on their one light night next week. Josh Norris could be worthwhile, too, thanks to his role with Tage Thompson and on the top power-play unit.
The Blues are still playing meaningful hockey in the wild-card race. Their biggest problem is their special teams. But at five-on-five, this team is clicking, which should continue against upcoming opponents like the Predators and Blackhawks. Jake Neighbours and Cam Fowler could provide some offense next week in those matchups.
The Lightning struggled against the Canes and Bruins, but their top-nine is much deeper after the deadline. Keep an eye on two forwards — Nick Paul and Oliver Bjorkstrand. Paul is currently slotted in the top-six (usually on the second line with Brandon Hagel, but he moved up to the Brayden Point’s right on Thursday with Nikita Kucherov out). Bjorkstrand’s advantage is his role on the top power-play unit. But he could get the boost to the top-six if the coaches want to switch things up.
As highlighted last week, Alex Vlasic’s fantasy value is rising now that he has taken over the first power-play unit. And playing in Chicago seems to agree with Ryan Donato. The Blackhawks have two light nights in Week 23, too, so there may be more bang for your buck with those pickups. If your league counts saves and doesn’t emphasize wins, Knight is available in most leagues.
The Blue Jackets are another team to track. Two of their three games in Weeks 22 and 23 are on light nights. And then, Columbus has a four-game slate in the final week of the fantasy season. The best offensive picks come from the top-six — Adam Fantilli continues to progress in a leading role on the first line. The return of Boone Jenner has also given this team a real boost; the scoring has been key lately, but he can also contribute to a lot of the secondary categories. The return of Sean Monahan later this month could shift him to the wing or bottom-six, and Monahan will become a strong pickup option, depending on where he slots when healthy. Those in banger leagues may want to look at Mathieu Olivier, who is rising to the occasion with an expanded role on the second line.
The Stars, Wild, Canadiens and Senators are four-game streamers in both Week 23 and 24 — so any manager that picks a player up in Week 23 should benefit from their schedule in the finals.
The Stars have two light nights in Week 23, giving them the most favorable schedule. It’s impossible to project what the Stars’ lineup will be in over a week, especially with some changes up front with the addition of Mikko Rantanen. But keep an eye on Jamie Benn, who will line up with Wyatt Johnston and Rantanen on Friday night. Benn is generally a depth scorer who can chip in shots and hits. But playing with that duo could unlock his offensive game a lot more.
In Montreal, the young guns are potential targets. Lane Hutson is available in 25 percent of leagues on Yahoo and brings a lot of offense. Juraj Slafkovsky is playing well on the top line, too. In Week 23 specifically, consider Patrik Laine when the Canadiens matchup against the Blues, whose penalty killing has been a real weakness. Sam Montembeault is one of the few starters who can be picked up on the waiver wire; he has been an outright difference-maker for the Canadiens over this last stretch of play with seven consecutive quality starts.
In Ottawa, Dylan Cozens should be on your radar — he is playing with Drake Batherson on the second line and the top power-play unit. Shane Pinto provides depth scoring on the third line, too.
There may be some value to extract from the Wild’s top line of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello. Despite a favorable schedule, Minnesota isn’t the best team to target — unless Joel Eriksson Ek or Kirill Kaprizov returns to action. That may be a safer bet for Week 24, and the timing is ideal from a fantasy perspective. The Wild have three light nights on the schedule that week.
The Canucks have one of the strongest Week 23 schedules, with games on three light nights. If Elias Pettersson can channel his energy from Wednesday night down the stretch, there may be some strong fantasy players to watch. His wingers, Jake DeBrusk and Nils Hoglander, could be prime targets if Pettersson can keep up that caliber of play. Pair that with the return of Quinn Hughes, and it should give Kevin Lankinen some much-needed two-way support.
Jake Allen could get two starts in Week 23 since the Devils have a four-game slate. In front of the blue paint, Luke Hughes’ value is rising. Dougie Hamilton is done for the regular season, so Hughes is the power-play quarterback in New Jersey. Cody Glass may be gaining some traction with his new team for those in deeper leagues.
Utah seemed like a team destined to swing for a center at the deadline. But then Barrett Hayton started hitting his stride. He is shooting the puck a ton, putting up points and scoring on the power play. Karel Vejmelka is the starter in Utah, and without Connor Ingram, the team will have to lean on him even more. He is only rostered in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues, despite ranking seventh in the league with 21.8 goals saved above expected in 42 games.
Week 24
Managers don’t have to wait until Week 24 to target Pavel Dorofeyev. All season, he has been a threat with his shoot-first mentality on the power play. But alongside Brandon Saad and Tomas Hertl, he is on a line that is thriving with a 74 percent expected goal rate and 5-2 scoring edge in their five-on-five minutes. Our approach focuses on the schedule because most managers can’t fit him into their lineups on a busy 10-plus game night. Just be sure that if you pick him up sooner, it isn’t to sit on the bench. The same goes for other players trending up who weren’t highlighted in this column, like Will Smith in San Jose and Sam Colangelo in Anaheim.
The same applies to Mackie Samoskevich. He has been playing well most of the season, but injuries have opened more opportunities on the second line and PP1. Samoskevich is stepping up for the Panthers and making a real impact in expanded minutes.
The Avs’ second-line wingers should start performing more consistently with a new second-line center in Brock Nelson. Jonathan Drouin and Valeri Nichushkin are the best targets in Colorado. Managers in deep leagues may want to keep tabs on Joel Kiviranta if he can keep scoring in the bottom-six. The Avalanche have two light nights in Week 24. That four-game slate includes a back-to-back, guaranteeing a Scott Wedgewood start. Colorado has one other back-to-back before that — on March 19th and 20th against the Leafs and Senators.
Speaking of goalie rotations, expect the Capitals to maintain an even balance between Charlie Lindgren and Logan Thompson for now. The coaches may start pressing one more down the stretch to see if either player can handle a 1A role ahead of the playoffs. Thompson has the better season-wide numbers, but Lindgren has improved lately. Up front in Washington, Alex Ovechkin’s teammates should be in focus. A lot of attention will be around Ovechkin breaking the record, which could open the door to his linemates scoring more if defenders shade more toward him. If not, someone like Aliaksei Protas should at least pick up some assists.
Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Lane Hutson: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
