Each day under President Trump feels like a fresh episode of a reality show that none of us signed up for—like if Netflix did a Caribbean-set Napoleon Island starring a hologram of Napoleon himself.
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Trump’s decisions—ranging from international diplomacy (or lack thereof) to domestic policies that seem designed to enrage massive rotating chunks of the nation—raise an inevitable question: What is he doing? More specifically, why is he doing what he’s doing?
At this point, anyone who expects predictability or reasoned policy out of Trump is either hopelessly optimistic or watching an entirely different administration than the rest of us. But as wild as his decision-making process appears, I have three theories that attempt to explain the method (or lack thereof) behind the madness. Let’s break these down.
Theory 1: Trump is a Russian Asset
This theory isn’t new, but let’s be real: If someone had laid out Trump’s actions over the past several years and presented them without names attached, the conclusion that he’s working to advance Russian interests wouldn’t sound like a wild conspiracy. It’s often so out there that the aforementioned Netflix would surely pass at this reality series because it’s, well, just too over the top.
From his fawning admiration of Vladimir Putin to his relentless efforts to weaken NATO and insult US allies, Trump has consistently pushed policies and rhetoric that benefit Moscow. And let’s not forget his handling of Ukraine—particularly his suggestion that the US should reconsider its support and his troubling history of withholding aid while pressuring the Ukrainian government for political favors. If you’re Putin, you couldn’t ask for a more effective tool to disrupt Western unity.
Now, does this mean Trump is knowingly working for the Kremlin? Nah—and that’s the disconnect with this theory and why when members of Congress hint at this without explanation, they’re being dangerously reductive.
There’s always the possibility that he’s just being manipulated, that he enjoys the strongman aesthetic Putin embodies, or that he’s simply taking actions that align with his own self-interest (including the ever-elusive and probably totally made-up “p-tape”), regardless of how they impact national security. But regardless of whether he’s a willing agent or an oft-useful idiot, the outcome is the same: Russia benefits, and America looks markedly weaker on the world stage.
Theory 2: Trump is Trying to Foment Global Chaos
For a man who ran a campaign on the promise of putting “America First,” Trump sure seems intent on making the world and America a far more unstable place.
Pulling out of international agreements, stoking trade wars, cozying up to dictators while alienating allies—it’s almost as if he wants the world order to fall apart. And maybe he does. After all, Trump has never been a fan of institutions he doesn’t personally control. If global stability comes from organizations like the UN, NATO, and the European Union, then undermining them plays right into his personal brand of nationalism and his own political survival strategy.
Trump thrives in chaos, as evinced by his seemingly hourly off-on trade wars. He’s at his best (or at least most effective) when he can create a crisis and then position himself as the only one who can fix it. The logic here is simple: If the world is on fire, people are too distracted (or terrified) to focus on his failures, especially if Trump comes in with even a glass of water.
The problem for Trump is that his glass is usually filled with gasoline these days. He’s banking on the reality that strongmen do well in times of uncertainty, and Trump—despite his bluster about democracy—has always had an authoritarian streak.
The problem, of course, is that playing with global stability is a dangerous game. Markets tank, wars break out, and people suffer. But for Trump, that’s just collateral damage in the larger pursuit of power.
Theory 3: He’s Just Worse at Presidenting Than Last Time
As shocking as this might sound, it’s possible that Trump’s presidential skillset second term is shaping up to be even less stellar than his first.
One thing we learned from his initial presidency is that he thrives on spectacle, but governing isn’t really his thing. The first time around, at least he had people—some competent, some not—who managed to keep certain aspects of government running despite the chaos. This time, however, the guardrails seem to be gone. The remaining Trump loyalists appear to be either blindly devoted or too afraid to contradict him, leading to an even greater level of mismanagement and erratic policymaking.
It’s also worth noting that Trump has never been particularly interested in learning as much as he is in asserting that he knows better. He governs by instinct, impulse, and grievance—a dangerous goulash (“ghoulash” would be more appropriate today). If his first term proved anything, it’s that when left to his own devices, Donald J. Trump almost always struggles to execute even basic functions of government. His approach to leadership is essentially a mix of gut feelings, excerpts from conservative news segments, and whatever gets the biggest applause at his rallies. That’s not a strategy—it’s a recipe for disaster.
So, Which Theory is Right?
The frustrating answer is that it’s probably a mix of all and none of the above. Trump’s presidency (both of them) has been a cocktail of incompetence, self-interest, and a complete disregard for long-term consequences. His actions benefit Russia, whether he intends them to or not. He thrives in chaos, whether he’s actively trying to create it or just incapable of preventing it. And he genuinely doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing—at least not in a way that resembles functional governance.
At the end of the day, Trump remains an enigma wrapped in a bad spray tan. But one thing is clear: whatever his motivations, the consequences of his presidency will be felt for years to come. And whether he’s a Russian asset, a chaos agent, or just deeply incompetent, the American people—and the world—are left to deal with the fallout.
Buckle up, because it’s going to be an even bumpier ride.
