The trade deadline is almost here!
What will the Toronto Maple Leafs and their GM Brad Treliving do? We see three possible paths.
1. Bold
This path, the most interesting path, would have the Leafs making a legit splash with one major addition, at least, before Friday’s deadline.
Think Ryan O’Reilly or Brock Nelson for the longstanding hole at centre, two theoretically available players who would meaningfully improve the team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
O’Reilly would add soooo much to the Leafs.
Just picture it: It’s Game 6 of the first round and the Leafs are up one with two minutes left in the third period and there’s a faceoff in the defensive zone that needs winning. O’Reilly is getting that call from his one-time St. Louis Blues head coach Craig Berube. He’s replacing David Kämpf on the first-unit penalty-killing unit and he’s an option to play the bumper spot on either power-play group. He’s insulation at centre for the Leafs beyond this season in the event that John Tavares isn’t re-signed — and insulation for Tavares and Auston Matthews in the short term, someone who can absorb a large chunk of the defensive burden from them during a long playoff series.
O’Reilly logged almost 20 minutes a night for the Leafs in the 2023 playoffs, more than every Leaf forward but Mitch Marner (24) and Matthews (23).
Nelson, a pending UFA, would give the Leafs one more legitimate scoring threat beyond a top six — William Nylander, Tavares, Matthew Knies, Matthews, Mitch Marner, Bobby McMann — who have accounted for over 71 percent of the team’s offence this season.
Nelson has scored 27 goals in 78 playoff games, including 20 in the last 52.
He’s someone who could easily move up and play the wing with Matthews or Tavares if needed and would be one more player, on what’s a pretty thin list, who Berube will trust to play late and deliver offence in a close game. (See the 26 minutes that Matthews played against San Jose on Monday night and the 27-plus that Marner logged to lead the team.)
Bold would see the Leafs stepping up and making an offer that forces either Barry Trotz or Lou Lamoriello, the GMs of the Preds and Islanders, to accept.
Adding either one (or even Brayden Schenn, if the price and retention is right) might be especially significant this year when Matthews isn’t quite Matthews.
A deadline in the bold category would see the Leafs solving other holes on the roster as well, such as the one that’s been simmering all year on right defence. It might also include an upgrade on Connor Dewar, Pontus Holmberg and/or Ryan Reaves in the bottom six. Chris Tanev’s younger brother Brandon, for instance, would bring more speed, physicality, penalty-killing presence and offence than either Dewar, Holmberg or Reaves.
Or perhaps the Leafs do something totally unexpected along the lines of Florida swooping in, suddenly, for Seth Jones or Carolina willingly paying a haul for the chance to hang onto Mikko Rantanen or Vegas swiping Tomas Hertl from San Jose ahead of last season’s deadline.
Maybe that means the Leafs adding a player who wasn’t thought to even be available. Or maybe it means pivoting from the top apparent priority — centre ice — to a winger who can score instead, Brock Boeser for instance. Or maybe the Leafs opt to spend their top assets on a more impactful defenceman like Rasmus Andersson or Colton Parayko (neither of whom appear to even be available).
And that’s part of the deal with this kind of trade deadline: Premium assets are willingly sacrificed in the name of the championship pursuit. That first-round pick in 2026? Gone. A top prospect such as Ben Danford? See ya. More picks and other future goodies? Gonzo. And maybe a young roster player such as Nick Robertson too.
A deadline like this would show the Leafs front office was willing to do anything and everything it could to push the roster closer to Stanley Cup-worthy.
2. Conservative
The Leafs still address their needs here, but do so with lesser talent.
Yanni Gourde or Scott Laughton, say, instead of O’Reilly or Nelson to fill the hole at centre. Gourde hasn’t played in more than two months after undergoing sports hernia surgery and might not be the same player now at age 33 as he was during his peak years with Tampa. But he would still qualify as an upgrade on Max Domi in the middle of the third line. He’s someone who could absorb some of the defensive burden from Matthews and Tavares, kill penalties, sprinkle in the odd bit of offence and add a layer of speed that the Leafs could arguably use.
Gourde has crucially shown he can elevate his game in the postseason and not just with Tampa. After back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Bolts, he dropped in 13 points in 14 games in the 2023 playoffs with Seattle.
Laughton has spent a good chunk of the year (though not recently) playing on the wing and he’s nowhere near as skilled as Domi. A third line centered by Laughton may not drive much offence, but might be able to occasionally chow down on some difficult matchups and be, well, annoying to play against.
One part of the equation here for Treliving and company is whether it’s worth paying the extra cost to get Laughton, who has an additional year left on his contract, with a cap hit of $3 million, over a rental like Gourde. (I’d lean no.)
Will the Leafs acquire Scott Laughton to fill the hole at centre? (Eric Hartline / USA Today)
In addition to a centre such as Gourde or Laughton, the Leafs locate a solid partner for Morgan Rielly in this scenario. Maybe that’s old favourite Luke Schenn or maybe it’s a bigger swing, such as 28-year-old Bruins defender Brandon Carlo, who has another two years left on his contract at $4.1 million on the cap.
The Leafs are likely parting with only one premium asset in this scenario, likely a top draft pick and maybe some lesser picks and prospects depending on what exactly comes back.
They almost certainly hold onto Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten, and maybe even Danford. They address their needs here, but modestly.
3. Uninspired
Here, the Leafs do very little or perhaps nothing at all even.
Instead of adding a true third-line centre (or something close to it like Laughton), the front office injects another bottom-line type instead — San Jose’s Luke Kunin, for example, a right-shooting centre who is basically just a better, feistier version of Dewar, or even Michael McCarron, a long right-handed centre playing in Nashville who has another year left on his contract at a cap hit of $900K.
On defence, the Leafs shoot lower — and cheaper — with a gruff experienced type like David Savard or even the aging Alec Martinez, a 37-year-old with loads of playoff (and Stanley Cup) experience who can play the left and right sides.
This version of the deadline isn’t the least bit inspiring and leaves the Leafs vulnerable to the same issues — division of labour, secondary scoring — as in previous postseasons, plus a defence that doesn’t quite align. The rationale for such a path might involve the challenges of the salary cap, the lack of available upgrades and the high cost for those that were out there.
The asset pool is hardly touched though, so there’s that.
— Stats and research courtesy of Hockey Reference and Puck Pedia
(Top photo of Yanni Gourde: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
