EAGAN, Minn. — In a less random world, the Minnesota Vikings wouldn’t be here. They wouldn’t be back in this all too familiar situation. The offseason would be mostly quiet. There would be no quarterback questions, no overdone media coverage about markets and contract sizes and franchise tags.
Maybe one day for these Vikings. But not yet.
J.J. McCarthy’s torn meniscus paved a path for Sam Darnold to produce a career-altering season in 2024. If it weren’t for a Week 18 clunker in Detroit and a miserable playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, there might not be this level of uncertainty.
But here we are, even after Tuesday’s franchise-tag deadline came and went. The Vikings did not place the tag on their 27-year-old quarterback. The inaction not only removes any possibility of a tag and trade, a strategy some around the league believed could happen as recently as last week’s NFL Scouting Combine, but it also keeps alive the possibility that Darnold could return to Minnesota on a short-term basis.
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The Vikings’ decision not to tag Darnold does not mean they weren’t open to the idea of a potential trade. Nor does it mean they never gauged the market or that they’re afraid to hand the keys over to McCarthy, who has returned to on-field training. On the contrary, it reflects the mountain of context necessary to understand why Darnold’s situation is playing out the way it is.
First, it makes sense to talk about Darnold’s market. Ahead of the Super Bowl in New Orleans, coach Kevin O’Connell reiterated his belief that Darnold’s production in 2024 cemented him as a premium free agent. But which team(s) will be interested? And, maybe more importantly, how interested will they be?
Some of the potential destinations seem obvious. The Las Vegas Raiders, for example, possess tons of salary-cap space. The Pittsburgh Steelers weren’t satisfied with Russell Wilson. The New York Giants are seeking a quarterback who can lengthen the leash of their leadership. Even the Tennessee Titans seem destined to move off of Will Levis. The lack of intriguing quarterbacks in the 2025 draft only adds more fuel to the fire of Darnold receiving an abundance of interest.
That optimistic narrative glosses over some important considerations. Would Las Vegas and Tennessee, toting first-year general managers, really want to hitch themselves to Darnold for the long term? John Spytek and Mike Borgonzi waited years for their opportunities to be general managers. Decision-makers never know how many darts they’ll have to throw on the quarterback, and one NFC executive shared in Indianapolis the belief that the first QB can become a make-or-break decision.
The Steelers and Giants present different circumstances. Pittsburgh reiterated its interest in re-signing quarterback Justin Fields, who will likely cost notably less than Darnold. New York, meanwhile, is on shakier ground. The Giants may be willing to commit to Darnold for multiple years, but Darnold and his representation are smart enough to know that what they could be signing up for now could change drastically in a year’s time.
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The second layer of context relates to a potential tag and trade. A team could want Darnold but still not be willing to trade a premium pick for him, knowing it would also have to pay him a considerable sum of money. In recent years, teams have been less inclined to trade early-round picks for players. Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are the only two quarterbacks who have netted first-round picks in return over the last three years. In 2023, the Miami Dolphins traded a minuscule package involving a third-round pick to the Rams for potential Hall of Fame defensive back Jalen Ramsey.
Could the Vikings have moved Darnold for a late-round selection? It’s possible, but they’re in line for a 2026 compensatory pick if Darnold leaves. That, of course, is contingent upon Darnold leaving and the Vikings spending wisely to ensure the compensatory pick is realized, which Minnesota’s brass is mindful of.
The other aspect worth noting is that Darnold’s preference matters here, too. His experiences in New York and Carolina shaped his perspective on the role franchise infrastructure plays in quarterbacks succeeding or failing. In 2023, he signed with San Francisco to be in a more positive environment. Exposure to that level of coaching and skill talent guided his decision to play for Minnesota in 2024. Fourteen wins and a Pro Bowl selection validated that choice. Similar values matter to him this time around as well, further complicating the realistic landing spots.
Not franchise-tagging (or tagging and trading) Darnold is not organizational malpractice. It’s more a reflection of the complex conditions surrounding his negotiations. The Vikings’ view has remained consistent. They’d prefer to bring him back at a price that would not hamstring their attempts to build the most well-rounded roster.
Essentially, Minnesota would be opting for Darnold and McCarthy at a price hovering just a notch above where Daniel Jones’ ask would likely land. That would mean continuity for O’Connell, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and the Vikings’ skill group. It would mean insurance for McCarthy in the form of a player the Vikings know and respect, even if it extends the uncertainty at quarterback longer than anyone supporting this team might have liked.
(Photo: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
