I gave you the good news first in my column on undervalued players. Now it’s time for the bad news — the players who do not deserve their ADP, according to NFBC drafts the past two weeks. I am showing my work here, and you can agree or disagree. I’m not just mindlessly saying, “The vibes on this player are good.”
Catcher
Adley Rutschman, BAL (overall pick 60, third catcher drafted)
How is Rutschman a clean player at this point? If he was punished in ADP, I might be in (It’s never the player; it’s always the price). Rutschman, off a disastrous second half with enormous trouble hitting when catching (vs. DH) and horrible platoon splits, somehow has the same overall ADP as in 2024. He was exactly league-average in overall Statcast expected hitting. The walks collapsed. His K% increased (yes, it’s still good).
First Base
Freddie Freeman, LAD (26, 1B3)
Could he be worth a pick at the Round 2/3 turn? Absolutely. But even Hall of Fame first basemen often struggle at age 35. Dick Allen, Carl Yastrzemski (played first base at that age), Todd Helton, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Tony Pérez, Eddie Murray … all were significantly worse by then. At age 34, Freeman struggled in bat speed, exit velocity, and expected ISO (slugging minus average). There is virtually no chance he outperforms ADP. I generally pass on those players in this area of the draft unless there is a super high floor. And no one has a high floor at age 35.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies, ATL (57, 2B3)
How? Why? Where is Albies guaranteed to help you? Maybe he hits sixth. Maybe he hits eighth. Look at all this blue ink on his Statcast page. I need to believe I’m moving the needle in multiple places with my top seven hitters, and Albies is going as a fifth-round pick. Yes, he hit 33 homers in 2023. But I project him as a 20-homer hitter. He has a little bit of speed. And I get that second base is weak this year, but you can just wait. Take Jeff McNeil with the last pick in your reserve round, and you have a similar hitter.
Shortstop
CJ Abrams, WAS (49, SS9)
I typically do not care about off-the-field stuff, but Abrams being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team so late in 2024 was super weird. I don’t draft “super weird” when it has this kind of sticker price. If Abrams had been great last year, maybe I’d forgive or forget. But from July 1 on, he had a .610 OPS in 63 games (.199 average). He did steal 17 bases in this span, with seven homers, but he’s likely to have an OPS in the high .600s to low .700s like he’s had his entire career beyond the first few months of 2024. What are we buying here? The speed isn’t worth this much.
Third Base
Oddly, I wouldn’t push back on the ADP of a single third baseman in the top 100. So, jump into the queue fearlessly.
Outfield
James Wood (54, OF18)
I admit to having a bias against super tall hitters (they have long swings, generally). When they prove that’s not an issue, I look at the positive traits with height, which is leverage/power. But Wood is an extreme ground-ball hitter. His average launch angle was two degrees (about one-sixth the average). He really struggled hitting breaking stuff. He’s a very fast but very inefficient base-stealer. Again, Wood is a top prospect. There’s a lot to like here. But I’ll be surprised if he’s a first-round pick next year, and I have to believe there’s a good chance of that happening to draft him this high, even at age 22.
Starter
Chris Sale, ATL (43, SP8)
Sale is 35, and it’s hard for me to pay so much more for him now than last year (83rd overall). He finished 2024 with a back injury, and his fastball topped out at 95 mph in his first spring start (vs. 97.1 in 2024). He’s a year older now. He’s pitched 634 innings the past seven years — he sat out the pandemic season. There’s less upside, given he’s a year older, and more injury risk in light of all the wear-and-tear he added in 2024. Bottom line: Sale can’t get me off my strategy of avoiding starting pitchers for the first five rounds.
Reliever
Emmanuel Clase, CLE (42, RP1)
I don’t care about his postseason struggles (again). He’s a great pitcher in real life, but I need a ton of surplus Ks from my closer. You want 25-27% Ks from your staff, and here’s Clase occupying a roster spot and falling short of that. I need my closers to be at 30% or above. In 70 innings, Clase is striking out 65, and you want 80+ out of that spot. So, you’re down roughly 20 Ks, and you have to compensate with starters, which is expensive. Ks for closers are way cheaper and often even free. Edwin Diaz could get 40 more Ks than Clase, and no one would find it remarkable; however, it’s of massive category value.
(Top photo of Freddie Freeman: Joe Camporeale / Imagn Images)
