The Miami Heat have a close-game problem.
The Heat have gone up by double digits only to lose 15 times this season, trailing only the Utah Jazz (17) for the most such instances in the league. While losing a big lead is less than ideal, it’s not uncommon in today’s game. NBA teams shoot 3s more often than ever. Possessions are plentiful as squads seek transition opportunities and chances to run up the score.
Teams are averaging 37.5 3-point attempts per game this season, which is on pace to break the NBA’s single-season record by more than two (35.2 in 2021-22). As a result, a double-digit lead isn’t as solid as it was in prior eras.
But what happens when the score is close?
That’s where the Heat have truly struggled this season, whether they’ve squandered a big advantage, mounted a comeback of their own or been locked in a close game all along. Sunday’s 116-112 overtime loss to the New York Knicks came after Miami led by as many as 19 points.
For much of the season, Heat center Bam Adebayo has voiced observations about the team allowing easy buckets, losing focus on a possession-by-possession basis and playing a full game. The pattern of blowing big leads is indeed frustrating, but every loss from here on out simply drifts Miami (28-31) further away from controlling its playoff destiny.
“We gotta be able to play 48 minutes of great basketball — not just 24, not 36. Shoot, not even just 40,” Adebayo said on Sunday. “We’re not a type of team where we can just rely on offense to just get the dub. We gotta get stops. We gotta do the harder things because we’re not that type of team.”
For Miami to excel in the future — whether in the final stretch of this season or beyond — will be dependent on how the Heat learn to control late-game situations. On the season, according to NBA.com, the Heat have a 13-17 record in clutch-time situations, which entails a game’s final five minutes with the score within five points. Miami’s win percentage in those scenarios ranks 24th in the NBA. Miami’s poor 39.5-percent shooting from the floor in those situations, good for 25th among all teams, is a key reason for that. The Heat’s 28.6-percent shooting from deep in clutch games is 28th.
In short, Adebayo is correct.
Heat in Clutch Time This Season
Points
|
FG Pct
|
3-Point FG Pct
|
|
---|---|---|---|
Tyler Herro |
76 |
27.6 |
18.9 |
Bam Adebayo |
62 |
56 |
16.7 |
Terry Rozier |
27 |
30.4 |
35.3 |
Nikola Jovic |
17 |
42.9 |
27.3 |
Haywood Highsmith |
14 |
50 |
50 |
Duncan Robinson |
13 |
33.3 |
11.1 |
Jaime Jaquez Jr. |
9 |
30 |
25 |
Tyler Herro has made an obvious leap as Miami’s go-to scoring option, but he’s among the Heat players who have struggled to consistently put the ball in the basket when the game is tight. He has missed nine of his 12 go-ahead shot attempts in a game’s final 24 seconds, including a potential game-winner with five seconds left before overtime on Sunday. All the other players currently on Miami’s roster have combined to shoot 3 for 17 in those scenarios.
Once Miami’s latest tough loss was in the books, Spoelstra wasn’t in the mood to lament another blown lead because his team still had a chance to win in the end. But it’s hard to imagine his disappointment doesn’t do more than pick at old scabs at this point, for frustrated players, coaches and fans.
“I don’t care about that. You can’t expect to blow teams out,” Spoelstra said Sunday. “That’s NBA basketball. At the end of the day, we were up four with a minute and change. … We handled it well enough to get that four-point lead, but we were not able to finish it off.”
Beyond scoring, though, the Heat need a consistent solution to winning the possession battle. From half to half, they can look like two different teams. On some occasions, they’ll dominate the glass and keep opponents at bay. During contrasting stretches, Miami can bleed points in the paint and struggle to keep up on the scoreboard, almost as if a lid caps the rim at the most inopportune times.
Miami currently sits five games behind the Detroit Pistons (34-27) for the sixth seed in the East, with ambitions of avoiding the Play-In Tournament growing fainter by the day. Even if both teams somehow finished the season with the same record, the Heat could still miss out the conference’s final playoff berth by virtue of losing the tiebreaker to the Pistons, who have won the last two meetings by a combined three points. The Pistons visit the Kaseya Center on March 19, which would give the Heat an opportunity to shrink their margin for error. Many games between now and then must go their way for that matchup to have any chance of swinging playoff chances.
In the big picture, Adebayo, who is in his second season as Heat team captain, would like to see the team consistently in command of games in ways that reflect an ability to take big leads. During those aforementioned clutch-time situations, Miami ranks 25th in rebound rate, securing less than 47 percent of missed shots when the game is close. On Sunday, the Heat enjoyed their fifth-best shooting night of the season (53.6 percent), but it ultimately was all for naught because they didn’t make shots or rebound the shot attempts that would’ve avoided another collapse.
Entering Monday, Miami is 2-7 when losing the rebounding battle by 10 or more.
“Understanding some of those rebounds are supposed to be ours,” Adebayo said about Miami losing the rebound battle Sunday. “It’s a 50/50 ball. We (are) supposed to pride ourselves on those types of rebounds. Sometimes, we just miss shots, and that’s part of the game, but it’s gotta be one of those things where we crash the glass, get offensive rebounds and try to build from there.”
( Top photo: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images )