PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — When the rotation is perceived to be a team’s biggest concern and two of the projected five starters go down before March, it isn’t exactly a good sign.
The New York Mets aren’t panicking. It’s too early to panic. And perhaps, in the end, there will be no reason to panic at all. But left-hander Sean Manaea’s right oblique strain, on top of righty Frankie Montas’ right lat strain, only adds to the uncertainty for a team spending $331 million to reduce doubt.
All is well, the Mets say. We’ve built depth to protect against injury. We don’t need to sign free-agent lefty Jose Quintana, who last season after the All-Star break gave us a 3.18 ERA. We can trade for a starter at the deadline, if necessary, figure it out as we go along.
The reluctance to add Quintana is understandable. The Mets again project to pay the Steve Cohen Tax, a 110 percent penalty for exceeding the fourth luxury-tax threshold. A one-year, $10 million contract for Quintana would effectively cost them $21 million. Probably not the wisest use of dollars, not that Cohen always cares.
The question is not whether the Mets find the bodies to cover for Manaea, who is expected to miss three or four starts, and Montas, who likely will be out until late May or June. After Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and David Peterson, the team has Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill to compete for two spots, and prospects such as Brandon Sproat in development.
The quantity is fine. The quality might be another story.
Consider FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement projections for the top five starting pitchers with each of the three NL East powers, the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Mets.
That’s a combined 16.3 fWAR for the Phillies rotation, 14.6 for the Braves and 9.3 for the Mets.
Projections can be taken only so seriously. They are based largely on age and on-field performance, and obviously cannot account for in-season injuries that occur. In the case of Manaea, they also do not account for the different pitcher he became after adjusting his delivery and repertoire in late July.
The formulas, though, do reflect talent level, and the Phillies and Braves each have four starters who project better than the Mets’ best. True, the addition of Juan Soto to the Mets’ offense might give the pitching staff greater margin for error. But at some point, the team will need to lean on its rotation.
Even before the injuries to Montas and Manaea, that was somewhat of a scary proposition.
Frankie Montas has been dealing with a right lat strain early in his first camp with the Mets. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
Senga, 32, missed almost all of last season with shoulder and calf injuries. Holmes, who turns 32 next month, will be starting regularly for the first time since 2018, when he was at Triple A. Manaea, who recently turned 33, is coming off a career-high 200 2/3 innings, including the postseason.
Of course, we can play this game with every team. At what point will Wheeler and/or Nola begin to slow down? Will Sale stay healthy for a second straight season, and what can the Braves realistically expect from Strider, who is coming off his second major elbow operation in five years? Even the almighty Los Angeles Dodgers cannot guarantee which of their uber-talented starters will still be upright by October.
The Mets will need to build in additional days off for Senga, who made only three starts on regular rest in 2023, his first season in the majors. They will need to proceed carefully with Holmes, who figures to be good for only 130 to 140 innings even if his transition to the rotation is a success. But their half-empty glass also can be viewed, rather easily, as half-full.
Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner on Monday described Holmes’ stuff as “amazing,” and he wasn’t just referring to the righty’s vaunted sinker. “I’m talking about his sinker, slider, sweeper, changeup, cutter, four-seam,” Hefner said. “He’s got a full package and it’s impressive.”
Peterson, in Hefner’s view, can build off his 2.90 ERA in 121 innings last season if he revives his slider to complement his improved sinker and changeup. A healthy Senga was an All-Star in ‘23. And if Montas and Manaea get healthy, Blackburn, Canning and Megill will be available in sixth starter/swing-type roles.
Lest anyone forget, the Mets’ rotation last season also was not a star-studded collection. Manaea’s 2.8 fWAR led the group, followed by Luis Severino’s 2.1 and Peterson’s 1.9. The Mets finished 12th in the National League in rotation ERA, but reached the postseason as a wild card, then upset the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Series and Phillies in the Division Series before falling to the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns disdains long-term contracts for starting pitchers, knowing they often end badly. His latest short-term deals — three years, $75 million for Manaea; three years, $38 million for Holmes; two years, $34 million for Montas — also might backfire. But by trading for Blackburn last season and adding Canning after he was non-tendered by the Braves, Stearns created a greater number of options, and a better chance of insulating the Mets from risk.
The improvement of the Mets’ farm system positions Stearns to be aggressive at the deadline. But no one knows which starting pitchers might be available, or (gulp) how many the Mets might need. Yes, the early returns are less than encouraging. But grand pronouncements in late February usually are a mistake.
Check back on the Mets in July. If the rotation turns out to be a true trouble spot, they can panic then.
(Top photo of Sean Manaea: Rich Storry / Getty Images)
