With higher NHL salary cap incoming, an early look at Oilers' roster depth this summer

The NHL salary cap is going up, way up, and teams will have a chance to wheel financially for the first time since the pandemic. It’s going to be a wild time for every NHL team.

The Edmonton Oilers, fresh from losing two young players to offer sheets last summer, will have the same opportunity to improve as every other team.

What might it look like?

First order of business

Armed with a new cap number for 2025-26 ($95.5 million, an increase of $7.5 million), general manager Stan Bowman will be focused on signing captain Connor McDavid to a long-term deal.

Nothing else matters until he is signed.

McDavid is under contract through next season on a cap hit of $12.5 million, universally regarded as a value deal. His next deal has been the subject of much speculation, with Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic opining that Edmonton’s captain could become the first $20 million AAV player in NHL history.

“According to my model,” Luszczyszyn wrote, “McDavid is currently the only player in the league projected to be worth 20 percent of the cap or more. He’s the league’s only blank check player.”

Next on the list

Evan Bouchard is eligible for an offer sheet and is a key member of the team’s nucleus. He is the youngest impact player on the team and the third most valuable roster player at this time.

Bouchard has an enormous future while also contributing at a high level on the current team.

An offer sheet for this player would need to be significant to give Bowman pause, so $10 million times seven seasons would need to be a comfort zone for an opposition general manager.

Bouchard’s uneven season might be enough to scare away some NHL teams, but not all; the brazen work by the St. Louis Blues has worked out well for the team’s general manager (Doug Armstrong).

A $10 million contract times seven years offer sheet would mean Edmonton receives first-, second- and third-round picks as compensation.

Bowman might feel he can use those picks to replace Bouchard, but this is a unique player and that’s a dangerous business.

It would behoove management to get Bouchard signed long before offer sheets can be offered, and that means early summer for a deal with Edmonton.

A cruel business

If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup in 2025, there’s a slight chance Bowman will tread lightly in roster movement over the summer.

It’s more likely he will make some big changes, win or lose. The GM will want to put his stamp on the roster, and some veterans will be vulnerable to trade.

The top name is Evander Kane, whose full no-movement clause changes to a 16-team approved trade list next week (March 1, via PuckPedia). Kane is working his way back from long-term injured reserve, and if healthy, he could help Edmonton to a championship. Come summer, the last season of his $5.125 million deal will probably be moved along.

I covered the free agents earlier this week, with Jeff Skinner the most expensive and vulnerable name on the list at $3 million. Things can change, but the odds of Skinner signing another deal in Edmonton are not high.

Where the Oilers stand

At the end of this season, the buyout of the James Neal contract will be satisfied, leaving only Jack Campbell’s buyout ($2.3 million cap hit in 2025-26) on the books.

Assuming a Kane trade and the organization letting all five unrestricted free agents walk, the depth chart will look like this as the Oilers enter summer. Note that they’d need to find three players for the fourth line.

*Assumes Matthew Savoie hits his bonus this season.

The forwards come in at just shy of $48.5 million, although the actual cost of this roster wouldn’t be known until Savoie’s bonuses have been hit or missed during the season. The Oilers have to account for the entire bonus opening night (the official day teams must comply with the salary cap).

I estimated both RFA defencemen, with a bridge deal for Bouchard and a short-term contract for Ty Emberson.

The defence and goalie tandem comes in about $31.5 million. Add the forwards and the Campbell buyout, and the cap (for 17 players) comes in at just over $82 million.

With next year’s cap set at $95.5 million, Bowman will have around $13 million in cap room for the summer.

Is there room to wheel?

Yes, but much depends on the value deals listed above.

Stuart Skinner is on an extreme value contract and in the final season of his deal. His next contract is likely $5 million or more, so the organization will have to decide over the next 16 months on the future in goal.

Savoie isn’t a lock for a roster spot but could be a big help to the organization if he can make the jump in the fall. Other value deals include Adam Henrique, Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Janmark and Brett Kulak.

Many questions will need to be answered among the team’s unrestricted players. Connor Brown and Corey Perry have earned raises, but Bowman will want to add speed and might have specific names in mind for the depth roles.

The question for Bowman, should things turn out this way, is finding enough talent with that $13 million cushion. The Oilers need to fill six roster spots, with the big dollars likely going to a scoring winger for the Leon Draisaitl line. Ideally, Bowman would find a right-handed center, more depth on the checking lines along the wing and a No. 7 defenceman.

Podkolzin can play on the second line, but could easily check down to the third unit. With Savoie’s skills, if he’s not in the Oilers’ top six on a skill line he should spend more time with the AHL Bakersfield Condors.

One final note: Bowman could run a counter-trey and go in search of a starting goaltender to push or supplant Skinner.

Players at the top end of free agency, like Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, will be out of Edmonton’s price range. A recent look at his next contract by James Mirtle estimated a $13.5 million AAV in one scenario. The Oilers won’t be in that conversation. It’s unwise to add another big contract to a top-heavy team at this time, even if Bowman wants to make a big splash.

A player like Sam Bennett of the Florida Panthers, however, could be of interest to the Oilers and might come in at a more affordable number. The tax advantage might be a hurdle, but a new wrinkle (deferred money on long-term deals) could allow Edmonton to take a big swing this summer. It’s more likely Bowman will go the trade route or move out an additional contract if the team intends to target a free agent like Bennett.

Savoie is in a good spot with the Oilers organization. He could be the answer, allowing Bowman to strengthen several other areas with those extra dollars.

That might be the play this summer.

(Photo of Evan Bouchard: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)