As the college basketball season heads into March, two clear tiers of championship contenders have emerged. At the top, Auburn and Duke are in their own tier. The second tier of teams, basically a list of squads vying for second place in the SEC, includes Florida, Houston (both +900), Alabama (+1100), Iowa State (+1600) and Tennessee (+1800).
As enticing as it is to fast forward to a future where these likely No. 1 and No. 2 seeds battle it out in a Final Four as your title bet hangs in the balance, there’s a chance one or more of them doesn’t make it to the Sweet 16. And the cause could be a small school in Moraga, California — Saint Mary’s College.
For almost a quarter century, Randy Bennett has turned this tiny Catholic college from an also-ran to a perennial NCAA tournament team. Gonzaga may have had the highs of Chet Holmgren, but the Gaels have made three straight tournaments and are closing in on a fourth. At 24-4 with a two-game lead in conference over their rival from the northwest, SMC currently sits as a No. 9 seed in The Athletic’s latest bracket projection and a No.7 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket — potentially putting them in the path of one of the heavyweights listed above.
Despite a disappointing dismissal from last year’s tournament at the hands of 12th-seed Grand Canyon, there are many reasons the Gaels could be a chaos-creating Cinderella come March. Continuity is one of them, as four of Saint Mary’s top five leaders in minutes — Augustas Marčiulionis, Mitchell Saxen, Luke Barrett and Jordan Ross — played at least 28 games last season, with both Marciulionis and Saxen seeing over 1,000 minutes. This season, Arizona transfer Paulius Murauskas joined the mix.
The team’s Lithuanian duo of the playmaking Marčiulionis and versatile Murauskas are first and second in scoring, respectively. When Marčiulionis does his best Šarūnas Jasikevičius impersonation, the Gaels produce an offensive rating of 116.5. Whenever Marčiulionis sits (he averages 34.4 minutes per game), Saint Mary’s offense plummets by over 7 points per 100 to just 109.1. If the Gaels topple Tennessee, Iowa State, Alabama or Florida in the Round of 32, Marčiulionis likely will be the reason.
But focusing solely on Saint Mary’s offense would be a mistake. Just ask Gonzaga — ranked 10 spots ahead of its West Coast rival in Kenpom rankings — how fun it is to go against the Gaels defense. The Bulldogs’ 58-point output in Moraga proves SMC can suppress a big-time team.
Despite their performance against Gonzaga, the Gaels defense has stumbled slightly from the lofty standards of previous seasons. After years of ranking no lower than 11th, SMC boasts college basketball’s 14th-best defense this season, per Bart Torvik’s rankings. Still, at 14th, the Gaels are a scary matchup for Tennessee (42nd in offensive efficiency per toRvik data) and Iowa State (24th), who could see their seasons end well before the Final Four if forced into a matchup with SMC.
So what’s Saint Mary’s ceiling? Before penciling in a bracket with SMC sprinting to a title, the WCC isn’t exactly a powerhouse. The bottom half of the conference is wretched, as four teams — Portland, Pepperdine, Pacific and San Diego — rank 228th or lower in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings. While a metrics darling, Gonzaga also lacks the true top-end talent we’ve seen in years past. Leading scorer Graham Ike is a great college player but is hardly viewed as a future NBA All-Star.
The Gaels’ high defensive rating likely reflects the caliber of teams they’ve played. The misgivings of the WCC aren’t abated by SMC’s non-conference schedule either. Utah State, which beat SMC 75-68, currently sits just 42nd in Kenpom’s ratings and might qualify as the Gaels’ strongest foe outside of the WCC. And while the Gaels currently hold opposing teams to a paltry 31.8 percent from deep, by and large, the analytics community views 3-point defense as mostly variance or, in simpler terms, luck. In part, the Gaels have benefited from bad teams shooting poorly from one of the most valuable spots on the floor.
However, SMC allows the 11th-lowest 3-point rate in college basketball, meaning teams don’t get shots off from that range, strengthening the case of the Gaels D. Dig a little deeper, and their 3-point defense seems even more legit. Across all levels of basketball, off-the-dribble 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s are not created equal. The latter is gold for opposing offenses, and the Gaels excel at taking away those opportunities, as only 6 percent of college teams allow a lower frequency of catch-and-shoot 3s than Saint Mary’s, per Synergy shot-tracking data.
In the big projected picture of March Madness to come, the Gaels might just be second-round fodder against tougher competition like Houston (39.4 percent from 3-point range), Duke (37.9 percent) or Auburn (36.5 percent). But if their numbers hold against stronger teams, SMC could be an absolute nightmare. With a little luck, the Sweet 16 might not be Saint Mary’s final stop.
So, if you’re looking to moneyline a big Saint Mary’s upset, get excited. The Gaels aren’t a sure bet, but they are a team with the defensive prowess to challenge any title contender that crosses their path.
(Photo by David Becker / Getty Images)
