Wednesday’s Champions League play-off second legs bring another opportunity to beat the bookmakers. The highlight matchup? Real Madrid’s mouth-watering bout with Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu. Let’s have a look at all four fixtures and the best odds around each tie.
Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting
Dortmund are one of two teams playing on Wednesday night that boast a commanding lead heading into the second leg. BVB beat Sporting 3-0 away from home last week and are now appropriately priced at 1/500 to qualify.
The bookmakers believe this one is all but done. So, will we see a more even game as a result of heavy rotation, or worse, the predictable dead rubber showdown? Wagering on a high-scoring affair might be tempting, but the pricing for over 2.5 goals, are not (8/13).
Perhaps this is an opportunity to have fun with the individual player markets and predict that the much-sought-after Sporting striker Viktor Gyökeres will depart the competition with a bang. The Swede will no doubt be keen to impress potential summer suitors on the big stage; backing him to get a couple of shots on target against a leaky defence feels comfortable at 13/10.
The bet: Viktor Gyökeres 2-plus shots on target (13/10)
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PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus
The collective gut feeling around this match being finely poised has been reflected by the betting markets.
PSV are priced at 6/5 to win on the night, while Juventus are at 6/4. The gap naturally widens when discussing who will qualify, with the hosts out at 21/10 and the visitors strong favourites at 4/11.
Whether Peter Bosz’s team can continue their stellar home form or if they’ll fall victim to Juventus’ historic European dominance is still up in the air.
For those looking to use the Old Lady’s 1-0 victory over Inter in Serie A on Sunday as a guide for their strength, be warned: Juventus gave up 1.8 expected goals (xG) — a metric used to measure the quality of chances a team creates and provide a predicted scoring conversion — and were slightly fortuitous to walk out as winners.
It might be best to simply back goals. Both teams seem likely to score (4/7), and the over 2.5 mark could be achieved too (4/6).
The bet: Both teams to score (4/7)
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
With a 3-2 lead intact following a first-leg triumph in Manchester, Real Madrid can rest easy ahead of this second leg, knowing the pressure is on the visitors to flip the script.
Given that there is no onus on them to force the issue and score, Carlo Ancelotti’s team tactics will likely gravitate around absorbing pressure and picking Man City off on the counter. That’s a tactic Kylian Mbappé and his supporting cast will no doubt love!
The bookmakers believe there’s little chance Pep Guardiola can overcome this situation, as Madrid are priced at 1/7 to qualify. They also expect goals aplenty, with the over 2.5 market sitting at 2/7 and even the over 3.5 at 5/6. None of these odds are particularly attractive, but combining those selections provides bettors a chance to find some value.
Considering the expected pattern of the game, there’s good reason to believe Los Blancos win on the night again but fail to keep Erling Haaland and his teammates out at the other end. That scenario prices up at a much more appealing 17/10.
The bet: Real Madrid to win plus both teams to score (17/10)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Brest
If Dortmund vs Sporting feels all but done, the credits are rolling over in France ahead of the second-leg tie between PSG and Brest.
Les Pirates must suffer the agony of playing the reigning French champions a third time this month, having lost 5-2 in the league and 3-0 in the first leg of this tie. The bookmakers consider Brest a 200/1 shot to qualify for the next round, underlining how little belief there is in them turning this around.
That means the goalscoring markets might be the best way to go. Bettors could opt for the relatively tried and trusted approach of backing Ousmane Dembélé to score at 8/11, but with a big domestic game against Lyon looming at the weekend, it’s hard to know how strong an XI manager Luis Enrique will put out.
Another tactic could be to back an expected win for PSG, but keep a cap on how many goals are scored. The reasoning being that if Les Parisiens play a more relaxed game due to their dominant position, they may lack the killer instinct to find the back of the net.
The bet: PSG to win and under 3.5 goals (6/4)
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(Photo of Brahim Diaz: Getty Images / Michael Regan)
