Did you miss me, or did you miss me? Please, don’t answer that. With the Super Bowl firmly in the rearview mirror, it’s time to set our sole focus on baseball and the greatest fantasy game on Earth. Welcome back to The Athletic with your faithful narrator, who owes all you wonderful readers a debt of gratitude for helping make me a finalist yet again as the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Baseball Writer Of The Year — it means the world to me.
Tasked with laying out my perfect first five rounds, starting with a touch of context is wise to avoid getting flamed in the comment section. For starters, I’ll do my best to keep it realistic by placing myself in the six-hole of a 12-team league. Obviously, my perfect draft is one where everyone else gets stuck in traffic, forcing them to auto-draft and leaving me with five different first-rounders.
I’ve also seen similar exercises where the author chooses the player with the highest ADP in each round. Sorry to say, if you’re drafting early enough to snag Bobby Witt Jr. or Shohei Ohtani (the consensus top 2), you aren’t getting Tarik Skubal in the second, given his max pick of 18 — just some ground rules before anyone starts wondering where their favorite first-rounders went.
(ADP data courtesy of FantasyPros)
ROUND 1 — Kyle Tucker, OF, CHC (ADP 8)
Maybe it’s a result of the granular betting work I do, the overall suppression in offense, the prevalence of platoons or because it’s easier to find quality pitchers while disagreeing with aggregated projections, but I’m front-loading balanced, five-category hitters this year. A perennial mid-first-rounder for years, Tucker is all that and a bag of Takis. In fact, I’d assert the Cubs’ newest outfield addition is just about the closest thing we have to a perfect fantasy hitter.
Tucker does it all, beginning with a pristine approach centered around quality pitch selection. He never strikes out (15.9% K, 7.6% Swinging Strike), takes his walks (16.5% BB), and refuses to chase (20.9% O-Swing). Then you get top-tier contact rates (88.9% Zone-Contact) at ideal elevations (28.0% groundballs, 52.4% fly balls) paired with elite underpinning power metrics (45.1% Hard Hit, 12.9% Barrel, .429 xwOBAcon) topped off with pull-side muscle (17.7% Pulled FBLD). Just typing all these stats makes me want to draft him again.
Granted, Tucker failed to reach 150 games in 2024 for the first time in three years — but it was a foul ball off the shin that derailed him, and he did steal a bag in mid-September to go with his .365 BA and 193 wRC+ after returning. The move to Chicago has drawn some consternation for Wrigley Field’s home run park factor, leading to some severe projection docking. While I respect the valid counter, I’m not necessarily buying it. Why? The Cubbies rostered a +25 HR bat each of the past three seasons (Cody Bellinger, Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ), none of which belong in the same stratosphere as Tucker in terms of pure hitting.
If balanced upside is the name of the game, Tucker’s in a great spot to help you keep all drafting options open by building off one of the most consistent four-year, five-category 600 PA paces in MLB — .280 BA, 84 R, 99 RBI, 31 HR, 22 SB.
ROUND 2 — Trea Turner, SS, PHI (ADP 27)
If you thought I tried to pull a fast one by going against my word and low-balling ADP to squeeze in my second perfect pick, I didn’t. Despite never going outside the top seven overall in as long as I can remember, Turner doesn’t have an ADP higher than 22 on any of the major providers, according to FantasyPros. Sometimes, it’s as easy as choosing an “old reliable” over the shiny, new unknown — sometimes, but wait for more risk later.
Perhaps the fact that Turner only played in 121 games last year is affecting his average draft position because, outside of that, I do not see why he dropped. Turner finished as fantasy baseball’s 47th most valuable player in roto formats, even though he only played in three-quarters of the games. If you extrapolate 2024 to his usual 650 PA, that’s a .295/106 R/75 RBI/25 HR/23 SB season and another first-round ADP on the ledger. It’s not like the 31-year-old boasts a track record for being injury-prone — he’s averaged 155 games played and 682 plate appearances per season across the three years prior. I’m scratching my head at the lack of fantasy love for Trea.
Yes, a strained left hamstring cost a player that we expect to run six weeks in mid-May, but therein lies the rub. When hitters rush back too soon, particularly from a soft-tissue injury, fantasy gamers tend to crush them for not stealing bases or producing to their maximum abilities. In this case, Philadelphia waited until Turner was back at 100%, and the proof is in the pudding — he went off down the stretch in those 368 PAs after returning, good for a very healthy 650 PA pace — .277/108 R/94 RBI/34 HR/16 SB. Someone stop me when you spot the drop-off.
For now, at least, we’re still talking about a premier player with phenomenal plate skills and pull power atop an optimal lineup in a great ballpark … at a second-round price point. Sounds pretty perfect to me.
ROUND 3 — Jackson Merrill, OF, SD (ADP 32)
As a famous Canadian robot once said, “Keep all drafting options open.” Not only does KADOO make for a funny acronym, but it’s also extremely prudent fantasy advice. Stacking balanced players allows you to take advantage of falling values and stay afloat in the ever-challenging batting average category. It also prevents you from having too many eggs in one basket when the injury bug starts buzzing. With two proven five-category players already in the bag, I’m finally ready to take a moderate risk on my favorite player to break into next year’s first round.
San Diego’s rookie outfielder debuted last season at just 21 years old and looked every bit a fantasy superstar. His .292/77 R/90 RBI/24 HR/16 SB stat line was good for a top-30 overall finish in 5×5 formats, by the way — I’ll take a repeat all day. Funny he’s still widely available in the third round of standard 12-team drafts (for now) when considering the elite plate approach for a player his age. Combining 17.0% strikeout, 87.5% zone-contact, 40.3% fly-ball and 11.3% barrel rates sounds like a perfect foundational combination. Now mix in an 11.8% pulled FBLD, a .302 xBA and a below-average HR-to-barrel conversion (46.2%), and there’s a simple, yet statistically compelling, argument he actually got unlucky last year!
If you can’t tell, I couldn’t be more excited for Merrill in 2025. Even his runs scored and RBI stand to take a huge leap forward this upcoming season — it wasn’t until September that Merrill finally secured a batting order spot inside the top five, spending an incredible 88% of his plate appearances batting in the bottom third of the lineup. Roster Resource currently projects the Padres’ sophomore to hit third, which could mean an extra 50 PAs and an easy profit at cost. Perfect!
ROUND 4 — Austin Riley, 3B, ATL (ADP 41)
At this point, I’m either completely out of touch with reality or have transformed into the old guy at the draft table lying in wait to scoop all the perceived boring values. Riley is another player with a proven track record as an absolute beast at the dish. Granted, he missed just over 50 games in 2024, but you’ll miss me with any injury-prone claims. Riley took a 97 mph sinker from Jack Kochanowicz off his right hand (ow!) after playing at least 159 games in each of the previous three seasons. By opening day, he’ll be eight months removed from the HBP and was recently quoted at a presser saying, “It’s feeling good. I’m ready to go … I haven’t suffered any setbacks. Slowly started hitting back in December and started building up. The biggest thing was getting healed up, getting strength back, range of motion … I’m excited.”
Well, you’re not the only one, Mr. Riley.
Going back four seasons to a major disciplinary shift when he cut down his rate precipitously, Riley’s easily been one of the premier power bats in the game. He’s not going to steal any bases, but given the excellent batting average, the big man’s 650 PA pace over that same span has got early second-rounder written all over it — .280/92 R/90 RBI/33 HR/1 SB. There’s a 0.0% chance I let Riley get past me in the late third round.
ROUND 5 — Michael King, SP, SD (ADP 55)
With as robust a hitting base as any fantasy player could ask for through four rounds, it’s time to add an arm so we don’t fall too behind in pitching. While most prototypical aces are already off the board, the window on true SP1s hasn’t quite shut. We’ll need someone who gets strikeouts with a deep arsenal while keeping runners off base and the ball on the ground. Enter King, the former Yankee converted reliever, who has now made 39 straight starts and pitched lights out in the process.
From a skills perspective, King leaves very little to be desired by the parameters above. His four-seamer induces whiffs (26.1%) as an ideal complement to a devastating changeup-sweeper combo that he deploys against either-handed hitters with great success (maximum .304 xSLG, minimum 34.5% whiff). Plus, he goes the distance, posting an outstanding seven money starts (7IP min, 2ER max) in his 30 outings. Now mix in good command-control (35.3% Ball, 8.7% BB) with an ability to win in the zone (82.5%) and keep the ball in the yard (0.88 HR/9) for a solid chance at a top-15 SP going outside pick 50. Another healthy season like 2024, and we’re drafting him in the second round next year.
If I can start my draft with these five players, you can call me Mr. Perfect.
“Almost Perfect” honorable mentions:
- Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM
- Garrett Crochet, SP, BOS
- Manny Machado, 3B, SD
- Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX
- Shoita Imanaga, SP, CHC
Thanks for reading! Let me know what you think in the comments below, and remember you can follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for daily musings … and lots of dad jokes!
(Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
