A month away from Selection Sunday, the NCAA selection committee released the top 16 seeds for the first time, with UCLA earning the top overall seed despite a loss to USC in its most recent game. The top two seeds have both sustained defeats in the past week, but those individual results didn’t diminish their overall body of work.
The SEC leads the way with six teams in the top 16, followed by four from the ACC. The Big Ten only has three, two of which are its newest entrants from California. UConn and two teams from the Big 12 round out the field. The SEC also got two No. 1 seeds, including Texas surprisingly coming in ahead of Notre Dame, despite the Irish winning their head-to-head meeting.
As a reminder, getting into the top 16 carries greater importance in the women’s bracket, as each of these teams gets to host the first two rounds of the tournament on its home court.
First look: NCAA women’s hoops top 16 seeding
- UCLA
- South Carolina
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- USC
- LSU
- UConn
- NC State
- TCU
- Duke
- UNC
- Kansas State
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Tennessee
First look: 2025 bracket
Spokane 1: UCLA (1), LSU (6), Duke (10), Tennessee (16)
Birmingham 2: South Carolina (2), NC State (8), TCU (9), Oklahoma (15)
Birmingham 3: Texas (3), UConn (7), North Carolina (11), Ohio State (14)
Spokane 4: Notre Dame (4), USC (5), Kansas State (12), Kentucky (13)
UCLA stays on the 1-line ahead of USC
Not only did the Bruins stay ahead of their rival Trojans after losing by 11 points in their first matchup of the season Thursday, but UCLA is still the No. 1 overall seed despite falling to fifth in the NET rankings. The Bruins are 8-1 in Quad 1 games while South Carolina and Texas are both 10-2. They have the 15th-ranked strength of schedule while the Gamecocks and Longhorns are first and second, respectively. UCLA’s dominant head-to-head win over South Carolina appears to have been the tiebreaker in keeping the Bruins as the top seed.
Meanwhile, USC’s wins over the Bruins and fellow No. 2 seed UConn weren’t enough to propel the Trojans to the 1-line. They suffered an upset to Iowa, a team that is on the bubble, and their loss to Notre Dame, who earned the final No. 1 seed, was likely another determining factor. USC will probably need to pick up another win over UCLA (whether that is in the regular season or the Big Ten tournament) to earn a top seed for the second consecutive season.
NC State and LSU are the biggest winners
The Wolfpack had a tough go in nonconference and have only four Quad 1 wins. However, they’ve been devastating of late, 17-1 since a loss to LSU in the Bahamas, with wins over Ole Miss, Duke, and Florida State in that stretch. NC State is 19th in the NET, behind most of the other teams in the top 16. To earn a No. 2 seed despite those early hiccups puts NC State in a good position heading into March.
LSU is also projected to be a No. 2 seed, which hasn’t been the case the past two seasons. The committee has dinged the Tigers for scheduling poorly in the non-conference. However, LSU has still picked up five quad 1 wins, more than teams like the Wolfpack, UConn and Duke. The Tigers will have the opportunity for even more quality wins, with Texas, Kentucky and Alabama remaining on the SEC schedule.
Not a lot of love for the Big 12
TCU and Kansas State have fared well in the metrics all season, but neither managed to get a No. 2 seed. The Horned Frogs likely had a better chance with wins over NC State and Notre Dame, but slotted in behind the Wolfpack anyway.
West Virginia and Baylor both rate well in the NET — the Mountaineers are 13th overall while the Bears are 18th, ahead of both NC State and Kentucky. However, neither team has collected many Quad 1 wins (0 and 2, respectively), and that criteria is a new point of emphasis for the selection committee in 2025.
Required reading
(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
