The champagne was barely mopped up from the NFL Honors ceremony and Josh Allen’s crowning as the 2024-25 regular season MVP when sportsbooks released odds for the next cycle of football excellence. No surprise that Allen is again near the top spot (+600), outstripped only slightly by his longtime rival at the top of this odds board, Lamar Jackson (+450).
Patrick Mahomes, who was the opening favorite last year, is barely in the top three at +700, while Burrow is close behind at +750.
Allen and Jackson nearly split the vote this year, with Allen receiving 27 first-place votes to Jackson’s 23 — the closest vote since 2016 when Matt Ryan beat Tom Brady. The Bills QB won despite being edged out by his Ravens counterpart for first-team All-Pro quarterback.
Bills QB Josh Allen wins AP NFL MVP after finishing second to Lamar Jackson in All-Pro voting. Allen is third player to win MVP after not making first-team All-Pro. Steve McNair shared 2003 MVP with Peyton Manning after Manning was the All-Pro and John Elway beat out #49ers Jerry…
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) February 7, 2025
That’s the nature of awards like this, where a voting body can make decisions that perhaps defy black-and-white statistics. And by that very nature, it makes MVP a somewhat bizarre market for betting; in some states, awards markets are restricted. (Don’t get us wrong, Allen’s 2024-25 numbers are certainly impressive and efficient: 3,731 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, six interceptions, 532 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs. But Jackson’s were even more so.)
Eighteen slots down from the top, the first non-quarterback candidate is Saquon Barkley at +5000 odds. The last non-quarterback to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. The other non-QBs who have won it since 2000 are LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000).
In the 2025-26 odds, keep scrolling after Barkley through seven more quarterbacks (including Drake Maye, Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr.) to get to the next non-QBs in the odds: WR Justin Jefferson, WR Ja’Marr Chase and RB Jahmyr Gibbs, all at +10000.
Here are all the odds for next season’s MVP, and a few of our staff’s way-too-early picks.
2025-26 NFL MVP odds
Staff picks
Hannah Vanbiber: Joe Burrow (+750). Maybe it’s the LSU fan in me (my entire family became automatic Bengals fans when he was drafted), or maybe it’s the fact that it just feels wrong seeing the year’s best quarterback miss the playoffs, but I think next year has to be Burrow’s time. Yes, the Bengals need to give Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase the supporting cast to make a deep postseason run, but as The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. put it, “All this team needs is one strong offseason.” Barring injury (*knocks on wood vehemently*), there’s no reason to think Burrow won’t be back with another killer season, this time with more wins. I’m not alone in my thinking, either, which actually might worry me more than reassure me: BetMGM reported that 35 percent of the money (most) is on Burrow to win MVP.
Mike Hume: Jayden Daniels (+1100). Wagering this far out on NFL MVP is all about value-hunting, so this is as much about the price as it is about the player. To me, that makes this an evaluation between Jalen Hurts (+2000) and Jayden Daniels (+1100). The case for Hurts is simple: The Eagles, with one of the youngest rosters in the league, should again challenge for another Super Bowl, and Hurts will get tush-pushed to the top of the MVP odds board all season long. With a ring on his finger, the thought is he plays more relaxed, forces fewer throws and combines outsize offensive stats with 12-plus wins to earn those needed votes. That said, I worry that the Eagles’ successful reliance on Saquon Barkley in 2024 may mute both Hurts’ numbers and split the MVP vote.
But down in D.C. Jayden Daniels is HIM. And I would be stunned if the Commanders don’t add another explosive offensive weapon or two alongside Terry McLaurin in the offseason. As the Commanders climb the standings, I’m not sure I’ll see a better value on him than +1100 this year. And those odds could start dropping as soon as the Commanders begin retooling their roster in free agency.
Brandon Funston: Jalen Hurts (+2000). He’s coming off a Super Bowl MVP and Philly enters the new season as the odds-on-favorite to win the next Super Bowl, too. He’s undefeated in the past 14 games in which he has attempted at least five passes, and the Eagles shouldn’t be hit too hard by free agency. Hurts finished as the runner-up MVP choice in 2022, when he led the team to their previous Super Bowl appearance. In his age-27 season and armed with a little more cachet after his SB MVP, I love getting him at +2000, a distant sixth among odds-on-faves.
Dan Santaromita: Patrick Mahomes (+700). This feels like a buy-low moment. Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league and surely the Chiefs will prioritize improving the offensive line, right? Last offseason’s major need was at wide receiver, and the Chiefs improved that unit. Now, it’s time to fix the offensive line so Mahomes can show everyone why he is the best QB of the generation.
Jess Bryant: Lamar Jackson (+450). At the top of the board, Lamar Jackson is not a value pick, but he is nearly guaranteed to be in the running next year, and the odds are still good at +450. He finished second this year in voting with 362 points, compared to Allen’s 383. He led the league in passer rating and quarterback rushing yards, tied with Burrow for total touchdowns and came in sixth in passing yards among a top 10 of pocket passers. There is some relative bias against handing out back-to-back MVP awards. Only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Joe Montana and Jim Brown have won the award consecutively, so Allen may exit the mix, leaving only a couple of other true contenders. Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are back. If the Ravens add another top-tier wide receiver, watch out. Jackson is probably hampered a little by Henry because he has to share offensive success credit with the Ravens’ primary back. But Jackson remains the primary reason Baltimore wins games … well, and maybe head coach John Harbaugh.
(Photo of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
